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El Sisi announces bid for re-election

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What We're Tracking Today

Egypt’s El Sisi announces bid for re-election

Good morning, wonderful people, and welcome to a very heavy news morning. President Abdel Fattah El Sisi will seek a third term, Morgan Stanely doesn’t like us, the sugar market is looking a bit dysfunctional right now, and we could get yet more money from IFC for a key private sector project — and that’s just for starters.

ELECTION 2023-

El Sisi has officially thrown his hat into the ring: President Abdel Fattah El Sisi will seek a third term in office after he announced yesterday his candidacy for December’s presidential election. “I have decided to nominate myself to you to complete the dream of a new presidential term,” the president said on the final day of the “Story of a Homeland” conference, a three-day forum in the new capital dedicated to a review of his time in office.

At least two other candidates are in the race: The Al Wafd Party’s Abdel Sanad Yamama and the Egyptian Social Democratic Party’s Farid Zahran both secured spots on the ballot earlier this week after obtaining the minimum number of signatures from MPs to be listed as candidates.

Waiting in the wings: Republican People’s Party Senator Hazem Omar is expected to join the race in the coming days, but will first need the Senate to accept his resignation. Omar has collected signatures from 44 MPs, qualifying him to join the preliminary list of candidates. The Karama Party’s Ahmed Tantawi and head of the Dostour Party Gameela Ismail are also trying to collect signatures to get onto the ballot.

Remember: Egyptians will go to the polls in December to elect a president for a new six-year term. Polls will be open at home on 10-12 December while expats will vote on 1-3 December.

The results will be announced on December 18, with a runoff in early 2024 if there is no clear winner.

The news received international coverage: Associated Press | Reuters | AFP | Bloomberg | The National.

MARKET WATCH-

We just got a “dislike” from Morgan Stanley: Morgan Stanley has adopted a negative outlook on our debt on concerns about our financing gap and uncertainty about how we’ll roll out reforms required by our USD 3 bn agreement with the IMF, according to Bloomberg. The bulge bracket bank has downgraded its rating of our sovereign debt to “dislike” from “neutral” on what it said were “mounting risks” in the coming months, including from December’s presidential election, which it said could delay the reform agenda.

High US yields are bad for Egypt: The bank’s bearish stance on riskier assets is the result of an increase in US inflation-adjusted yields, Morgan Stanley wrote in a report, leading it to prefer higher-yielding emerging debt. “The prospect of a prolonged period of elevated rates in the US may now keep Egypt locked out of global capital markets for longer,” Bloomberg wrote. The media outlet last month ranked Egypt as the second-most vulnerable country to a debt crisis.

And they’re going higher: US Treasury yields hit their highest levels in 16 years yesterday as the global bond sell-off resumed, writes the Financial Times. The rate on 10-year bonds climbed 0.13 percentage points to 4.70% yesterday after positive manufacturing data hardened traders’ expectations for interest rates to remain high over the long term.

We already knew 2024 was going to be expensive: We need USD 29.2 bn of financing to meet debt repayments next year, equal to almost a fifth of our total external debt, according to central bank figures out last week. Morgan Stanley puts the figure at USD 24 bn for the current fiscal year.

FX WATCH-

HSBC reduces FX withdrawal limit by a third: HSBC Egypt customers are now able to only make USD 1k in overseas foreign-currency withdrawals per month, down from USD 1.5k previously, according to the bank’s webs ite. The tighter restriction went into effect at the beginning of the month. This limit includes the amount you withdraw plus any additional fees that HSBC or the ATM imposes on the withdrawal. The transactions include withdrawals using debit and credit cards, as well as cash advances using credit cards at ATMs.


IN THE HOUSE TODAY-

#1- Emergency cost of living measures up for discussion: The House Budget Committee will discuss two draft bills that would raise the income tax exemption threshold, and double exceptional stimulus payments to public-sector workers and pensioners. The changes were among a list of measures announced by President Abdel Fattah El Sisi last month to alleviate the impact of the economic crisis on vulnerable households.

#2- Parliamentary committee posts announced: The speaker will announce the results of yesterday’s election of a chairman, two deputies, and a secretary general for each of the House’s 25 committees.

#3- The Senate is back in session: Senators will reconvene today after the two-month summer recess with committee elections top of the agenda. Senate speaker Abdel Wahab Abdel Razeq will today open the door for members wishing to run for the leading posts of the chamber’s 14 committees. Results will be announced during the Senate’s Wednesday session.

HAPPENING THIS WEEK-

IT’S NOBEL WEEK- The scientists who made possible a covid vaccine got the Nobel yesterday: The Nobel Prize in Physiology or Medicine was jointly awarded yesterday to two scientists from Hungary and the US, Katalin Karakó and Drew Weissman, for their groundbreaking contributions to the creation of the mRNA covid-19 vaccine.

The physics prize will be announced today: Regarded amongst the most prestigious awards, the Nobel Prize in Physics has been handed to some of the world’s most iconic figures in the arena of science like Albert Einstein and Marie Curie. The prize for chemistry will be announced tomorrow, followed by the literature, peace, and economic sciences prizes through the rest of the week.

HAPPENING NEXT YEAR?

EGX to launch financial derivatives market in 2024? The EGX is in the process of completing procedures with financial regulators and brokerage companies to launch a derivatives market during 2024, the bourse’s new boss Ahmed El Sheikh told Asharq Business (watch, runtime: 3:50). Brokerage companies will now study market and human resources requirements needed to introduce investors to new financial derivatives, he added.

Boosting EGX investor reach: The new derivatives market will attract new segments of investors to the EGX, El Sheikh added. The news follows last week's EGX statement that it has taken responsibility for managing the secondary market for t-bills, allowing them to be traded on the bourse in a move to improve investor accessibility, boost trade volumes, and lower yields.

THE BIG STORIES ABROAD-

Get used to seeing this a lot: Trump is in court. (Associated Press | Reuters | New York Times | Washington Post | WSJ)

The latest from Capitol Hill: Republicans are doing Republican things. (Associated Press | Reuters | New York Times | Washington Post | WSJ)

US recession: Here are all the reasons why the Fed probably isn’t going to achieve its “soft landing.” (Bloomberg)

A more Sino-friendly IMF? Georgieva backs handing Beijing more power at the Fund. (Financial Times)

THE REALIGNMENT-

Saudi-US defense treaty tied to normalization with Israel: Saudi Arabia’s pursuit of a military pact with the US is dependent on the kingdom opening up relations with Israel, Reuters reports, citing three regional sources it says are familiar with the talks. The potential military pact is expected to fall short of the kingdom’s initial hopes of a NATO-style commitment by the US and instead resemble treaties the US has with its Asian allies, the newswire added, citing what it said was a US official familiar with the negotiations. Some concessions for the Palestinians are expected to come out of any agreement; however, the Palestine question appears to have taken a back seat, with Reuters quoting one of its regional sources as stating “The normalization will be between Israel and Saudi Arabia. If the Palestinians oppose it the kingdom will continue in its path.”

*** It’s Going Green day — your weekly briefing of all things green in Egypt: Enterprise’s green economy vertical focuses each Tuesday on the business of renewable energy and sustainable practices in Egypt, everything from solar and wind energy through to water, waste management, sustainable building practices and how you can make your business greener, whatever the sector.

In today’s issue: How industrial players and the government are working to combat industrial pollution.

Together: Three days of music set against the stunning backdrop of Somabay by the Red Sea. From 5-7 October, two events organizers at the forefront of Egyptian nightlife, ByGanz and Nacelle, will bring together world-famous electronic music DJs such as Birds of Mind, Richy Ahmed, Henrik Schwartz, Hunee, and Guti, as well as regional and local artists. Together is a full three-day experience with beach activities from sunset to sunrise.

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ENTERPRISE FINANCE FORUM

AI and big data: How next-gen tech will transform the local finance industry and what could be at stake?

AI and big data are going to transform the banking industry: The rapid evolution of generative AI in the past year and a bit is threatening to fundamentally reshape a number industries everywhere — and finance is no exception. And with machine learning, big data, and algorithmic decision-making only growing in importance in the industry, the question becomes: What kind of transformation do we want, and how can we ensure it is done responsibly?

On the first day of the Enterprise Finance Forum, we welcomed on stage three industry insiders who have plenty of experience with AI and big data: CIB Group CFO Islam Zekry (who was earlier in his career the first head of data science at an Egyptian bank), Chief Data Scientist at Beltone Holding Basma Rady, and Synapse Analytics co-founder and COO Galal Elbeshbishy.

ICYMI- McKinsey’s Larry Lerner, who co-moderated the panel, set the scene with an introduction on what every banker needs to know about AI. You can download The promise of AI and GenAI in banking: Separating hype from potential (pdf) here.

Larry has also agreed we can share McKinsey’s What every CEO should know about generative AI (pdf) .

The 4 “V”s that make big data, well, big: Volume, velocity, variety and value. While volume is what distinguishes a dataset as big data, velocity is a business’ capacity to efficiently process and derive value from the influx of data including customer narratives embedded within datasets, said Zekry. Variety covers a wide array of data types, extending beyond numerical and financial transactional datasets to encompass elements such as social mediator interactions, preferences, videos and emails, Zekry added.

The most valuable “V”: Generating substantial and meaningful value from all of the data a bank or business gathers that could drive decision-making processes is probably the most important element to keep in mind, said Zekry. Demonstrating the return on investment in expanding big data analysis is imperative, as decision-makers may be hesitant if they do not see a clear path to tangible returns, he added.

The AI 90/10 mix in credit decision-making : Whether or not to give a client access to credit is an example of where supervised AI learning can be applied, said Zekry. CIB also uses algorithms to inform decisions about who to issue credit cards to, he said. “Financial institutions are reaching out to us for one defined use case, [and] that is instantaneous credit [decision making],” Elbeshbishy said, echoing Zekry’s thoughts. This is 90% of today’s AI use cases in the banking sector, with generative AI taking up just 10%, said Zekry. Applications of AI are currently limited in the local market, but could triple over the next 5-10 years, Rady said.

Thin credit profiles call for AI interventions: The current level of financial inclusion and credit coverage is quite limited, leaving substantial capacity for growth, said Elbeshbishy. One place where banks have been using AI to good effect is to handle clients with thin-to-no credit profiles by using alternative data as well as tapping into predefined and pre-trained datasets.

How do you secure management buy-in for AI? Demonstrate value: In the case of an institution like Beltone, the leadership team already firmly believed in the power and value of AI and data to help people at all levels of the organization make decisions, Rady said. For data scientists with management teams that still need to be coaxed on the uptake, it’s important to continuously demonstrate the value of data and AI to senior leaders. She argued that AI adoption in Egypt extends beyond financial institutions and is evident in digitally native tech startups. The adoption rates, however, vary among organizations, with some struggling to secure management support, Rady said.

The features of an AI-first institution: Data assets + talent + balanced decision-making. “If you have data and you have the talent, the sky’s the limit,” said Rady, highlighting the key pillars for AI-driven growth in financial institutions. Rady stressed the need to consider data collection in product launches and investing in talent growth, while striking a balance between machine learning and human domain expertise.

Ensuring that AI is in the right hands and applied ethically is central to any conversation about the technology, said Elbeshbishy, stressing that this involves regulation to prevent misuse. The complexity of AI systems and the inherent biases in data is another aspect that needs to be considered, Elbeshbishy added, highlighting the need to differentiate between ethical concerns and biases originating from the data itself. Businesses will need to address biases within their AI systems, even if it means refactoring code to ensure fairness and avoid discrimination.

What’s an AI-driven bank? Being an AI-based bank means being highly responsive, offering services beyond traditional banking, and tailoring the customer experience to individual consumption patterns and lifestyles, Zekry said. He underscored the need for financial institutions to adapt their business models: “Under the severe pressure we are facing from the new demographics and the new customers and all their needs, I think we are changing our business model into a more intelligent, more responsive, more customer centric business model.”

What we can do better: Personalization + cloud solutions. AI will make it possible for banks to instantly create personalized. Together with wider adoption of cloud-based solutions as the Central Bank of Egypt permits it, banks could be looking a more profitability by delivering better services more efficiently. There’s also significant potential in the local banking industry, our panelists agreed, with its relatively low market penetration, which leaves room for expansion, potentially serving up to 60-70% of the population more effectively.

What’s next? Financial inclusion for the next 10 mn people: Rady highlighted the role of data in building models for faster financial inclusion and overcoming biases through alternative data sources. “If you rely on new types of data sources that are less biased by nature, you can end up including more people into the financial services sector and have them become financially included,” she said. Within the data science and AI community, there is a heightened awareness of privacy and ethical considerations, Rady added, saying that when developing models and technologies, there is a conscious effort to assess and mitigate biases. This proactive approach ensures that the resulting systems are designed to include as many individuals as possible while minimizing any potential biases, she said.

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Economy

Egypt’s net foreign assets position improves slightly in August

Egypt’s net foreign asset position improved marginally in August to negative USD 25.9 bn from negative USD 26.3 bn the month prior, according to Enterprise calculations basted on Central Bank of Egyot figures. This marks the second consecutive month that net foreign liabilities have fallen after reaching a record high of USD 27.1 bn in June.

It was because of the central bank: The Central Bank of Egypt’s net foreign liabilities narrowed to USD 9.4 bn from USD 10.1 bn in July, according to the figures.

FX liquidity in the banking system deteriorated: Net liabilities in the banking system widenedto a bit over USD 16.5 bn from USD 16.2 bn the previous month.

ICYMI- Net foreign assets in the banking sector have deteriorated heavily over the past two years, swinging from a EGP 26.4 bn surplus in June 2021 to a record EGP 529 bn deficit(USD 17.1 bn) in June this year due to the ongoing FX crunch.

Some pundits think August’s marginal improvement could be a blip: Fitch said last month that Egypt’s net foreign asset position will likely get worse before it gets better, pointing to a combination of outflows of FX, import backlogs, and a managed exchange rate.

Remember: We remain in the grip of an ongoing hard currency shortage, triggered in part by major foreign portfolio outflows as global economic conditions tightened following the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine war. This also comes as we face what Goldman Sachs recently warns is a USD 11 bn funding gap in the next five years and a wall of foreign debt repayments coming due over the coming decade.

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Development finance

IFC could support Port Said port expansion with USD 175 mn loan

Maersk’s expansion of East Port Said port could get IFC backing: The International Financial Corporation (IFC) is considering providing a loan of up to USD 175 mn to help the Suez Canal Container Terminal (SCCT) expand its existing container terminal at East Port Said port, the lender said on its website. The multilateral lender is expected to decide on the loan by 30 October.

Also included: an interest rate hedge. The IFC will also provide the SCCT with risk management products in the form of interest rate swaps with a loan-equivalent exposure of approximately USD 2 mn, the lender said.

ICYMI- This is part of Maersk’s expansion plans for the port: The Maersk-owned company is embarking on a USD 500 mn expansion of the East Port Said port that is expected to raise its capacity by 40%. The SCCT signed a contract with the Suez Canal Economic Zone in November that will put it in charge of building and operating a second container terminal at the port, as well as taking on responsibility for securing financing for the project. The IFC puts the cost of the project at USD 489 mn, of which 64% will be financed by internally generated cash flows and 36% via debt.

Refresher: The SCCT wants to expand the capacity of its existing 2.4k-meter container berth by 2.1 mn TEU to allow an annual capacity of 6.6 mn TEUs. This will significantly boost the port’s current capacity, access to port services, and operational efficiency. Expansion of the terminal could kick off at the end of this year, with its initial operations commencing in 2H 2025.

SOUND SMART- A TEU is the standard unit for a shipping container — the corrugated metal things you’ve seen being hauled on highways, stacked in ports, and carried on the deck of vessels. It stands for a twenty-foot equivalent unit.

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Commodities

Egypt is halting the sale of sugar to traders to curb soaring prices

Sugar traders are no longer taking their ahwa ziyada: The Madbouly government will meet with sugar packing companies and traders later today to negotiate new terms and requirements for trading of the commodity, an official at the Supply Ministry told us yesterday. The official was speaking after the government imposed a temporary ban on sales of sugar to traders by both private and state-owned companies.

Wait, what ban? The temporary edict was handed down as officials looked to tamp down soaring sugar prices, Asharq Business reported yesterday, saying a source with knowledge of the decision had told it that companies had been told “not to sell to traders until prices stabilized.”

The Supply Ministry source tells us the government believes the ban will be temporary “until new terms are set” and that prices should come down once an agreement is reached.

The rationale: Cracking down on hoarding. The move is designed to prevent traders from hoarding supplies ahead of the anticipated currency devaluation and driving prices upwards, the source said.

Sugar prices are soaring: ​The price of non-subsidized sugar has surged in the recent months on the back of a series of currency devaluations, which has triggered record inflation across the economy. Sugar is trading at as much as EGP 40 a kilo, double the price subsidized by the government.

It’s not just local factors driving prices higher: Sugar prices are spiking in sugar importers across North and Sub-Saharan Africa due to weak harvests in key producers, according to Bloomberg.

There’s a carveout for some companies: The government is allowing sales to companies that depend on sugar in their production of goods, according to three company leaders who spoke to Asharq on the matter.

Export ban extended: The Trade Ministry last week extended its ban on sugar exports until the end of the year in a bid to curb inflation. Exports have been banned since March.

The gov’t has also been stocking up its sugar reserves: The General Authority for Supply Commodities (GASC) announced the arrival of 100k tons of raw sugar from Brazil on Monday, with another 50k tons expected to arrive within the month. Meanwhile, the Supply Ministry said on Wednesday that it’s working towards importing another 200k tons of raw sugar in the coming months to maintain at least six months worth of supply in reserve.

6

Moves

Omar Shoukry is the new IR head of GSK. PLUS: Daader resigns from Juhayna

Two EGX-listed companies yesterday announced key personnel changes at their investor relations departments:

#1- Khaled Daader (LinkedIn) has resigned from his position as the head of investor relations at Juhayna Food Industries effective 30 September, the company said in an EGX disclosure (pdf ). Daader had led the company’s IR unit since May 2020. The disclosure did not name Daader’s replacement, saying instead that the dairy foods giant would disclose the details once the individual is hired.

#2- Pharma giant GlaxoSmithKline Egypt has appointed Omar Shoukry (LinkedIn) as its new investors relations head after having served as the company’s communications and government relations head since 2022, it said in a disclosure to the EGX (pdf) Sunday. Shoukry has previously held managerial positions at Visa, Philip Morris, Dow Chemical, and Pfizer. The appointment follows the resignation of former IR head Ahmed Ismail.

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LAST NIGHT’S TALK SHOWS

El Sisi’s announcement that he will seek a third term dominated the airwaves last night

The t op story on the airwaves last n ight: President Abdel Fattah El Sisi officially announcing he will run for a third term in the upcoming presidential election. El Sisi declared his candidacy during the final day of the “Story of a Homeland” conference (watch, runtime: 19:20). Masaa DMC (watch, runtime: 3:41), Ala Masouleety (watch, runtime: 4:32), El Hekaya (watch, runtime: 1:47) and Al Hayah Al Youm (watch, runtime: 48:27) all had coverage.

El Sisi appoints his campaign ma nager: The news that Mahmoud Fawzi, the former head of the Supreme Media Council, has been chosen to head Sisi’s election campaign received airtime from Lamees El Hadidi on Kelma Akhira (watch, runtime: 2:09) and Lobna Asal on Al Hayah Al Youm (watch, runtime: 2:13). Fawzi discussed the appointment during an interview with Osama Kamal on Masaa DMC (watch, runtime: 9:15).

The c andidate list so far: El Hadidi walked viewers through the current list of candidates for the election (watch, runtime: 3:33). They include:

  • El Sisi followed
  • Farid Zahran (Egyptian Social Democratic Party)
  • Abdel Sanad Yamama (Al Wafd)
  • Hazem Omar (People’s Republican Party)

All four have collected the signatures they need to make it onto the preliminary list of candidates. Omar will need the Senate to accept his resignation from the Senate before officially joining the race.

TBD: Whether Dostour Party chair Gameela Ismail and or the former head of the leftist Karama Party Ahmed Tantawi will get enough backing to join the ballot. The National Elections Authority will announce the final list of candidates on 9 November.

In other election miscellany: El Hadidi (watch, runtime: 3:27 | 1:40) and Amir Adib (watch, runtime: 1:47) both called on their viewers to vote in the election. The El Hekaya host also called for wider press freedoms to express opinions (watch, runtime: 27:35 | 4:48).

ALSO LAST NIGHT- Ismailia fire: The Ismailia Security Directorate was left a charred wreck after a fire broke out in the building on Sunday night. Kelma Akhira (watch, runtime: 5:02) and El Hekaya (watch, runtime: 7:24) dedicated coverage to the cause of the accident and the losses it caused.

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EGYPT IN THE NEWS

38 injured as fire engulfs Ismailia Security Directorate HQ

Dominating the headlines on Egypt in the international press this morning: A massive fire broke out at the headquarters of the Ismailia Security Directorate on Monday, injuring at least 38 people. Videos surfaced in social media in the early hours of the morning showing the building engulfed in flames. The cause of the fire is unknown. (Associated Press | Reuters | AFP | BBC | The National | Al Arabiya | Xinhua)

Menendez in the dock in May: US Senator Robert Menendez will stand trial on 6 May on corruption charges. The New Jersey Democratic senator has been accused of accepting bribes from a businessman linked to Egyptian officials in return for promoting the country’s interests in Congress. (Associated Press | Reuters | Bloomberg | CNN)

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Also on our Radar

PHD to expand Palm Hills October after acquiring new land plot. PLUS: More Chinese investment?

REAL ESTATE-

PHD to expand Palm Hills October following land purchase: Palm Hills Development has acquired a c.1.6 mn square-meter plot of land from the New Urban Communities Authority (NUCA), the company said in a press release ( pdf ). The land is next to the developer’s Palm Hills October project, and will be used for a mixed-use development featuring villas, commercial facilities, a five-star hotel, and an extension of Palm Hills Sporting Club The company expects it to generate EGP 85 bn in sales proceeds over a 5-7-year period. PHD did not disclose how much it paid to acquire the land.

INVESTMENT-

Chinese company to launch a USD 350 mn waste recycling project? A Chinese recycling company is in talks with the General Authority for Investment and Freezones (GAFI) to launch a recycling project with investment of up to USD 350 mn, Haier Egypt General Manager Ahmed El Gendy told Al Mal (wa tch, runtime: 4 7:28). El Gendy did not disclose the name of the firm but said it was the biggest recycling player in China.

The golden license is a draw: The government’s decision to award Haier Egypt with a golden license prompted the firm to open talks with GAFI over the potential project, according to El Gendy. The Chinese home appliances manufacturer received the license in December for its planned factory near Tenth of Ramadan City, into which El Gendy said it will invest USD 160 mn.

USD or CNY? Egyptian and Chinese authorities are in talks to allow Chinese companies to use CNY to invest in local projects, rather than the USD.

PRIVATIZATION-

Stake in another plastics manufacturer up for grabs? The government is looking to sell 10-15% of its 22% stake in state-owned thermoplastic producer Egyptian Propylene and Polypropylene (EPP) to a foreign investor, reports Al Ma l, citing sources it says are in the know. That amounts to 2.2-3.3% of the company, according to our math. An unnamed Saudi private company has reportedly expressed interest in acquiring the shares. Neither the status of negotiations nor the finalized stake sizes and valuations were disclosed.

Remember: EPP is one of 35 state-owned companies and assets earmarked for privatization. The government is aiming to raise USD 5 bn from asset sales between October 2023 and June 2024.

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PLANET FINANCE

EM stocks suffer worst quarter in a year as higher rates, China woes bite

The third quarter wasn’t kind to EM equities: Emerging-market stocks took a serious blow in 3Q 2023, with a deepening sell-off wiping out an estimated USD 688 bn of value in September alone, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The rout took total EM equity losses in August and September to USD 1.54 tn, erasing almost all of yearly gains and leaving the asset class nursing its heaviest quarterly losses in a year.

Driving the bloodbath: Some of the most profitable trades in the EM space have gone into reverse on the back of a stronger USD, aggressive Fed policy and China’s economic woes. “It was already a pretty painful eight, nine months,” one fund manager told the news outlet. “But, really, the confirmation by the Fed and further appreciation by the market that rates will probably stay for long is really causing some volatility. The past few days have been specifically painful.”

On the upside: EM equities could be at an attractive entry point for those with patience to adopt a buy-and-hold strategy, another analyst said. “Global leaders are ending their hawkish campaigns, or at least those endings are in sight. It is reasonable to believe that emerging markets as it is priced today, will be higher a year from now.”

ALSO- Saudi Arabia will return to international debt markets in the upcoming fiscal year to plug a projected budget deficit, the Finance Ministry said in its pre-budget statement. Riyadh had initially expected to report a surplus for 2023, but now expects a budget deficit of 2% of GDP due largely to lower oil prices and to its decision to extend oil production cuts. The statement did not specify how much Saudi Arabia plans to borrow during the year. (Reuters | Saudi Press Agency)

EGX30

19,901

-0.8% (YTD: +36.3%)

USD (CBE)

Buy 30.83

Sell 30.96

USD at CIB

Buy 30.85

Sell 30.95

Interest rates CBE

19.25% deposit

20.25% lending

Tadawul

11,006

-0.3% (YTD: +5.0%)

ADX

9,788

0.0% (YTD: -4.2%)

DFM

4,183

+0.5% (YTD: +25.4%)

S&P 500

4,138

-0.9% (YTD: +9.1%)

FTSE 100

7,511

-1.3% (YTD: +0.8%)

Euro Stoxx 50

4,138

-0.9% (YTD: +9.1%)

Brent crude

USD 90.45

-1.9%

Natural gas (Nymex)

USD 2.85

-2.8%

Gold

USD 1,844.20

-1.2%

BTC

USD 27,848

+2.7% (YTD: +68.7%)

THE CLOSING BELL-

The EGX30 fell 0.8% at yesterday’s close on turnover of EGP 3.3 bn (53.2% above the 90-day average). Local investors were net sellers. The index is up 36.3% YTD.

In the green: EFG Holding (+3.2%), Heliopolis Housing (+2.8%) and Oriental Weavers (+2.2%).

In the red: Orascom Construction (-8.3%), Fawry (-3.5%) and Credit Agricole (-3.3%).

Asian markets are mostly in the red during early trading this morning as concerns about tightening financial conditions continue to stoke nerves in the market following yesterday’s sell off in the US bond market. The Hang Seng (-3.0%) and the Nikkei (-1.6%) are heavily selling off, while shares in Australia are down 1.3%. Shares on Wall Street and in Europe look set to follow them later today, with equity futures all in the red this morning.

11

Going Green

What are Egyptian industrial players doing to reduce their carbon footprint?

How industrial players + gov’t are working to combat industrial pollution: With the world moving towards reducing its carbon footprint, local industrial players are being nudged towards increasing their energy efficiency and slashing emissions. This shift is partially coming from momentum from within private sector circles, as well as from government-led initiatives to improve industrial players’ environmental performance.

Where things currently stand: Egypt was in the top 10 list of countries with the worst air quality in 2022, coming in ninth place with an air quality index of 128, making the country’s air quality unhealthy for sensitive groups, according to data from Swiss air quality technology company IQAir. Industry is the largest user of electricity, natural gas, and coal, and is responsible for nine gigatons of CO2, or 45% of worldwide direct emissions from end-use sectors in 2021, ABB’s Business Area Manager for Egypt, North, and Central Africa Ahmed Hassan told Enterprise.

It comes at a hefty cost: Environmental degradation costs Egypt an annual EUR 2.2 bn — almost double the industrialized country average, according to data from the French Development Agency (AFD).

Enter EPAP: The Egyptian Pollution Abatement Project (EPAP) is a wide-scale initiative launched in the early 1990s by the Environment Ministry to help industries reduce energy and resource consumption and comply with environmental regulations. It provides a mix of loans and grants to industries, with financial backing from parties including the EU, AFD, the European Investment Bank (EIB), and German development bank KfW.

The EUR 145 mn project is currently in its third phase, according to the Environment Ministry’s website. The EU is contributing EUR 10 mn to the third phase, while the EIB is putting down up to EUR 74 mn. This phase of the project kicked off in 2015 and is expected to wrap up next year. “The project helps improve industrial company’s environmental performance through offering them soft loans,” head of the air quality division at the Environment Ministry’s Environmental Affairs Agency (EEAA) Mostafa Mourad told Enterprise.

EPAP at a glance: The project has so far provided technical support to some 31 factories in 25 industrial facilities, with total investments of EUR 131 mn, according to government documents seen by Enterprise. It has also helped out 33 SMEs with a total investment of EUR 12.8 mn. The Environment Ministry has 120 stations constantly monitoring industrial emissions across the country, as part of its efforts to cut solid particle pollution in half by 2030.

A new project to reduce emissions in the making? The Environment Ministry is currently — alongside international agencies — conducting studies to launch its environmental sanitation policy to help make industry greener, Mourad said. “We have been in talks with cement manufacturers for over a year now to push them to switch from limestone to basalt, which emits less harmful pollutants,” Mourad said, adding that the ministry has obligated all emission-intensive industries to ensure that at least 10% of their energy consumption is green.

The private sector is also trying to make a change: Swiss-Swedish power company ABB Group in 2021 launched its Energy Efficiency Movement(EEM), which aims to raise awareness and push companies to limit their carbon emissions as well as their energy consumption. The movement targets both the private and the public sectors, mainly companies operating in the industry, technology, energy, and telecom sectors. The movement expanded to Egypt in May.

EMM in Egypt: “The movement in Egypt has only recently begun, and is still in its infancy. To start seeing concrete results, we are currently trying to include the Egyptian companies in this initial round,” he said. “We can start to have a genuine impact in the long run by encouraging businesses to cut back on their energy use. This will strengthen the path toward sustainable development and ensure we are making efforts in lessening our global carbon footprint.”

Big industrial players are already pulling their weight: Ezz Steel brands itself as a “sustainable business” whose operations have a minimal impact on the planet. “We are in the first quartile in terms of lowest carbon footprint for steel producers worldwide,” a company representative told Enterprise. Elsewedy Electric has also taken significant steps to strengthen its commitment to sustainability, Elsewedy Electric Chief Sustainability Officer Manal Hassan told Enterprise. “This included conducting a comprehensive assessment of our carbon footprint and consistently tracking and disclosing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions according to recognized protocols,” she added.

The steel industry has gone green: In the last 30 years or so, the steel industry reached a no tolerance mindset to what used to be a very polluting industry, the Ezz Steel representative said. Green innovations in the steel industry have made significant advancements — every plant now has a dust collector, air pollution is monitored closely using sensors and the figures are reported to the Environment Ministry, he added.

So has the chemical industry: “[TCI Sanmar] is continuously seeking ways to enhance its practices in order to support pollution abatement. Having said this, it may be mentioned here that the company is fully complying with all rules, regulations, and standards,” a representative at chemicals producer TCI Sanmar told Enterprise. The company is also committed to advancing its technology to reduce environmental impact and optimize the use of energy and natural resources. “At TCI Sanmar, we are committed to ensuring the sustainability of our day-to-day operations and minimizing our environmental footprint on the planet. This includes implementing updated waste management and energy conservation practices.”

Going green requires a complete overhaul of operations: “If one is after the fundamental reduction of carbon emissions that would mean a total change in industrial operations — we know there is a range and try to stay on the lower part of the range, following up with our results and trying to stay on the lowest end of the carbon footprint,” the Ezz Steel representative said. In any heavy industry there are tens and tens of factors contributing to energy consumption, he added, explaining that lowering energy consumption helps with keeping costs low and preserving the environment.

Advanced tech is the gateway to going green: “We make sure we choose the most recent state of the art configuration that has been tested internationally to have a lower footprint,” the Ezz Steel representative said.

Industrial clients are also wary of their carbon footprint: Many of Ezz Steel’s clients are interested to know what measures are being applied to minimize carbon footprints. “I think industrialists, those who are industrialists at heart, realize the importance and how fundamental [going green] has become,” the representative said.

Strategies have been put in place: “In response to the call for immediate action to address the global climate crisis, Elsewedy Electric issued its 2020-2023 Sustainability Strategy. This comprehensive strategy not only includes a strong commitment to achieving net-zero emissions by 2050, but also outlines specific interim targets for 2030 and 2040 and detailed action plans to achieve those goals,” Hassan said. The company constantly monitors its emissions to air, water, and waste generated and is able to “take immediate corrective actions. We have identified all environmental risks and impacts arising from our operations and construction activities and developed environmental management plans and monitoring programs as part of our corporate ESMS, including targets and site-specific KPIs.”


Your top green economy stories for the week:

  • Solar tender deadline extended: The Egyptian Electricity Holding Company has extended the bidding deadline for the tender for five north coast solar plants to 27 October.
  • Japanese firms eye Egypt renewables: The General Authority of the Suez Canal Economic Zone (SCZone) met with representatives from 24 Japanese companies interested in investing in renewable energy and green fuel projects.
  • Banque Misr to launch green fund: Banque Misr plans to establish an ESG green index fund in 1Q 2024 based on S&P’s sustainability index.

OCTOBER

1-3 October (Sunday-Tuesday) International Expotec for water economics management, Egypt International Exhibition Center, Fifth Settlement, Cairo.

2-5 October (Monday-Thursday): ADIPEC 2023, Abu Dhabi National Exhibition Center.

2 October (Monday): Government meeting with investors to look into liberalizing electricity grid.

4 October (Wednesday): OPEC+ meeting.

6 October (Friday): Armed Forces Day.

7 October (Saturday): HHD shareholders to consider NOSI’s offer to acquire Heliopark land.

9 October (Monday): The Narrative PR Summit, Somabay Red Sea.

9-11 October (Monday-Wednesday): Arabs Savings and Financial Literacy Conference, Four Seasons Hotel.

10-12 October (Tuesday-Thursday) Ceramica Expo, Cairo International Convention Center.

12 October (Thursday): Egyptian-Italian Business Forum.

13 October- 20 October (Friday-Friday): The sixth edition of El Gouna Film Festival (GFF).

Late October-14 November: 3Q2023 earnings season.

15-17 October (Sunday-Tuesday): Egypt Automotive Aftermarket Exhibition, Cairo International Convention Center.

20 October (Friday): Deadline for applying for Dar Venture’s Dare incubator.

26 October (Thursday): Daylight saving time ends.

27 October (Friday): Deadline for bidding in tender for five solar plants on north coast.

29-31 October (Sunday-Tuesday): Egypt Energy, Egypt International Exhibition Center.

29 October - 2 November (Sunday- Thursday): Cairo Water Week.

30-31 October (Monday-Tuesday): Intelligent Cities Exhibition and Conference, Dusit Thani LakeView, Cairo.

30-31 October (Monday-Tuesday): Global Business School Network (GBSN), American University of Cairo.

31 October - 1 November (Tuesday-Wednesday): Federal Reserve interest rate meeting.

Signposted to happen some time in October:

NOVEMBER

2 November (Thursday): Central Bank of Egypt’s Monetary Policy Committee meeting.

8 November (Wednesday): Turkish-Arab Economic Forum 2023, Istanbul.

9-15 November (Thursday-Wednesday): Intra-African Trade Fair, Cairo.

14-15 November (Tuesday-Wednesday): Destination Africa, Royal Maxim Palace Kempinski Hotel.

15-24 November (Wednesday-Friday): Cairo International Film Festival, Cairo.

19-22 November (Sunday-Wednesday): Cairo ICT, Egypt International Exhibition Center.

22 November (Wednesday): Deadline to apply to FRA for credit rating license.

23 November (Thursday): Worldview Education Fair, Cairo. (Register here)

30 November-12 December (Thursday-Tuesday): COP28, Dubai.

DECEMBER

1-3 December (Friday-Sunday): Egyptian expats vote in the presidential election.

9-15 December (Saturday-Friday) :The Engineering Export Council of Egypt’strade mission to Saudi Arabia.

10-11 December (Sunday-Monday): eGlobe Expo, St. Regis Almasa Hotel, Cairo.

10-12 December (Sunday-Tuesday): Voting in presidential election takes place in Egypt.

12-13 December (Tuesday-Wednesday): Federal Reserve interest rate meeting.

12-14 December (Tuesday-Thursday): Food Africa Expo, Egypt International Exhibition Center.

20 December (Wednesday): End of sugar export ban.

21 December (Thursday): Central Bank of Egypt’s Monetary Policy Committee meeting.

Signposted to happen sometime in December:

  • Gov’t expects to finalize sale of a stake in military-owned bottled drinks company Safi
  • Gov’t expects to finalize sale of Zafarana wind farm

EVENTS WITH NO SET DATE

2023: The inauguration of the Grand Egyptian Museum.

2H 2023: Egyptian government expected to sign agreements with a consultant for the EuroAfrica electricity interconnector.

2H 2023: President Abdel Fattah El Sisi and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan expected to hold a summit.

3Q 2023: E-Finance to launch in Saudi Arabia.

4Q 2023: EGX to launch its new futures exchange.

4Q 2023: EGX to launch a shariah-compliant index.

End of 2023: A Developments’ first phase of the Lazoghly development completed.

2024: Standard Chartered Bank to open a branch in Egypt.

25 February 2024 (Sunday): Deadline for bidders for oil and gas expansion in the 23 new regions.

June 2024: Gov’t expects to finalize sale of Beni Suef combined-cycle power plant.

1H 2024: Gov’t expects to finalize sale of four water desalination plants.

End of 2024: The launch of the high-speed train line linking Ain Sokhna with Al Alamein City.

November 2024: Egypt to host the 12th session of the World Urban Forum (WUF12).

2Q 2025: Safaga Terminal 2 to start operations.

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