Central Bank of Egypt holds interest rates steady

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What We're Tracking Today

EGX closes above 20,000 for the first time ever

Good morning, friends, and welcome to the first workweek of autumn, where the weather is cooling and the days are getting shorter as we grind away at our 2024 budgets.

There’s no single BIG STORY here at home this morning: The central bank’s monetary policy committee left interest rates on hold when it met last Thursday (in line with analyst expectations). We have coverage of that — and a chat with Vice Minister of Finance Ahmed Kouchouk ahead of the kickoff tomorrow of the Asian International Infrastructure Bank ’s annual meeting in Sharm El Sheikh. The gathering wraps on Tuesday.

THE BIG STORIES ABROAD are in the United States, including (yet again) the risk of a federal government shutdown. Both houses of Congress have until this coming Saturday to come to a budget agreement — or the US government shuts down everything but “essential” operations. Also in the United States: US Senator Bob Menendez has temporarily stepped down as chairman of the powerful foreign relations committee after having been indicted on charges of bribery — including allegations that he covertly provided assistance to Egypt and helped a friend try to dodge criminal prosecution. Menendez says prosecutors have “misrepresented the normal work of a Congressional office.” We have more on the Menendez story in Last Night’s Talk Shows and Egypt in the News, below.

FROM THE ENTERPRISE FINANCE FORUM- We have a treat for you this morning: McKinsey’s Larry Lerner has agreed we can share his deck with our full readership. Larry’s presentation served as the introduction to our panel on what every banker needs to know about artificial intelligence. Larry co-moderated the panel, which included participants CIB Group CFO Islam Zikry (the first chief data science officer at an Egyptian bank), Beltone Holding Chief Data Scientist Basma Rady, and Galal El Beshbishy, co-founder and COO of Synapse Analytics.

You can download The promise of AI and GenAI in banking: Separating hype frompotential here (pdf) . Larry has also agreed we can share McKinsey’s What every CEO should know about generative AI (pdf).

Why you should listen to Larry: A former banker himself at Capital One in the US, Larry is based in Washington, DC, where he is McKinsey’s point man in helping financial institutions around the world make sense of what’s going on right now with AI. A partner at McKinsey, Larry is the firm’s global leader for banking and securities analytics — and heads its global taskforce for generative AI in banking.

MEANWHILE- The Grand Egyptian Museum got a shout-out in the Financial Times’ list ofbest museum gift shops in the world . Author Maria Shollenbarger writes that she is “most excited about Nakhla, the standalone boutique of the eponymous jewelry brand,” adding that, “Laila Neamatalla’s gorgeous designs — artisan-crafted in 21-carat gold with semi-precious stones and wood — already have a glamorous global following, ranging from the Bulgaris to the Boutros-Boutros Ghalis.”

AND- Speaking of Boutros-Ghalis: We’re pleased to note that former Finance Minister Youssef Boutros-Ghali has joined the board of Stanhope International, the New York-based affiliate of Mohamed Younes’ Concord. YBG will also oversee the development of investment policies at Concord International Investments Group.

SMART STRATEGY- HSBC earmarks USD 1 bn to support climate tech: HSBC plans to invest USD 1 bn in financing early-stage climate tech companies worldwide. The funding, aimed at reducing global carbon emissions, will be directed to startups in climate tech such as EV charging, battery storage, sustainable food and agriculture, and carbon removal technology solutions. (HSBC press release)

PSA- This week is a four-day week thanks to Prophet Mohammed’s birthday falling on a Wednesday. The cabinet, the Central Bank of Egypt, and the EGX have confirmed that the banking sector, stock exchange, and private and public sectors will be taking Thursday, 28 September off. This follows the cabinet's announcement last week that the public and private sectors will both be off on Thursday.

We may also be in for a three-day weekend next week in observance of Armed Forces Day, which falls on Friday. The government typically declares a replacement day for national holidays that fall on Fridays.

PRIVATIZATION WATCH-

#1- Sidpec-Ethydco merger postponed: Sidi Kerir Petrochemicals Company’s (Sidpec) board of directors agreed to postpone the company’s merger with Ethydco until it assesses ADQ’s acquisition of a 27% stake in the company, it said in a disclosure (pdf) to the EGX on Thursday.

Remember: Sidpec has intended to acquire the entirety of Ethydco since last year, and signed off on an all-share merger in July. ADQ’s acquisition of a stake in Ethydco may have slowed down the merger, with the local press reporting last week that the Financial Regulatory Authority is looking into whether the sovereign wealth fund would have to make a mandatory tender offer for the merged entity.

#2- Another firm eyeing Delta Steel? Ashry Steel has submitted an offer to the state-owned Metallurgical Industries Holding (MIH) to acquire its subsidiary Delta Steel, A l Ma l reports, citing sources it says are in the know.

Remember: Al Gioshy Steel, El Garhy Steel, and El Marakby Steel w ere all repo rted to be interested in Delta Steel last week. Al Gioshy Steel chairman Tariq Al Gioshy told us that the company has offered to partner with Delta Steel to develop, manage, and operate a smelting plant for billet production in exchange for a share of the company.

HAPPENING TOMORROW-

We’ll have a timeline tomorrow for the upcoming presidential election, the National Elections Authority said at a press conference last week. The question on everyone’s minds: Is there a scenario in which we can head to the polls in December?

Gameela Ismail gears up for presidential race: Chairman of the Dostour Party Gameela Ismail announced that she is ready to run for president in next year’s elections, in a Facebook post that was addressed to her party’s general assembly on Thursday.

HAPPENING THIS WEEK-

ADQ acquisitions to close this week? The government hopes to sign final contracts with ADQ before the end of this week for the sale of shares in Egyptian Ethylene and Derivatives Company (Ethydco), Egyptian Linear Alkyl Benzene (Elab), and Egyptian Drilling Company (EDC). It came to an initial agreement with the Abu Dhabi wealth fund earlier this year to sell 25-30% stakes in the three companies for USD 800 mn.

A big sweetener: Al Borsa reported last month that the government had agreed to guarantee the value of ADQ’s investment for a four-year period as well as pay it an 8% annual return, a sum equal to USD 256 mn, according to our math. This would be financed via the central bank, according to the news outlet’s sources.

HAPPENING NEXT WEEK-

The three-month onion export ban starts next Sunday: The Trade Ministry will bring its three-month export ban on onions into effect on 1 October, it said in a statement (pdf) yesterday. The ban was announced last week in response to soaring local prices but its introduction was delayed to give time for exporters to fulfill their existing contracts, the ministry said.

Not all onions: Spring onions are not included in the ban, Al Mal reported yesterday, citing government sources.

Remember: Onion prices have surged to as much as EGP 35 per kilo, part of a wave of record-high inflation triggered by several currency devaluations and a prolonged shortage of FX. Food prices accelerated at a record rate of 71.4% y-o-y in August.

Sugar export ban extended: The ministry has also extended its sugar export ban for another three months until 20 December, according to a decision published in the Official Gazette. Exports of any “excess” supply of sugar could go ahead with approval from the ministry, according to the decree.

MARKET WATCH-

E GX at 20k : The EGX30 broke the 20k barrier for the first time ever on Thursday as an unprecedented rally continues despite our economic challenges. The index climbed 1.4% to close at 20,081, leaving it 37.6% higher since the start of the year.

Driving the rally: Local investors have poured into the market in a bid to hedge against the devaluation of the EGP and soaring inflation, sending the benchmark index soaring 132% in EGP terms from its most recent low more than a year ago. Local investors accounted for more than 86% of trading on Thursday.

THE REALIGNMENT-

Iran sees “no obstacle” to establishing relations with Egypt: “[Wednesday’s] meeting of foreign ministers of the two countries can also be a chapter to start and revive relations,” Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi said after a meeting between the foreign ministers of Egypt and Iran at the UN General Assembly in New York last week.

ICYMI– Iran has launched a diplomatic offensive in the Arab world this year, signing a landmark accord with its former arch enemy Saudi Arabia to reopen embassies, holding high-level talks with the president of the UAE, and reportedly engaging in months of talks with Egypt to normalize relations.

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Central Bank of Egypt holds interest rates steady

The Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) kept interest rates unchanged on Thursday, it said in a statement (pdf), citing a “slight decline” in core inflation and a “moderation” of real GDP growth.

Where rates stand: The overnight deposit rate is at 19.25%, the overnight lending rate is at 20.25%, while the main operation and disc. rates are both at 19.75%.

What they said: The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) “decided to keep policy rates unchanged and will continue assessing the cumulative impact of previously enacted tightening policies and its transmission to the economy in a data-driven manner,” it said in the statement. Aside from a surpris e 100-basis-point ra te hike at its last meeting in August, the central bank has kept rates unchanged since March as it assesses the impact of 1k bps worth of rate hikes made in the preceding 12 months.

No surprise: All of the seven analysts and economists we surveyed in our interest rate poll ahead of last week’s meeting expected the MPC to hold rates steady. A number of analysts said that the bank will assess how the previous hikes are impacting the economy before it moves forward with another rate hike.

Is the tide turning on inflation? The central bank noted the slight dip over the summer in the rate of core inflation — which strips out volatile items such as food and fuel. It also pointed out that while food inflation continues to accelerate, it is being “driven by volatile items as opposed to core food items in earlier months,” adding that inflation dynamics in July and August were a result of seasonal increases in agricultural goods on the back of poor weather conditions, as well as supply chain disruptions.

Remember: Annual inflation clocked a new record high in August, though on a monthly basis price growth slowed for the third consecutive month to 1.6%, indicating weakening price pressures.

Analysts agree: “Inflationary pressures will likely continue to ease through the coming months as previous currency moves pass through the base, meaning that the Egyptian central bank’s hiking cycle is likely done for now,” analysts at Emirates NBD Bank PJSC said in a report picked up by Bloomberg.

Most still have their eye on the EGP: Analysts are expecting the central bank to devalue the currency again to coincide with the IMF’s anticipated review of the USD 3 bn loan program. “[The EGP] has lost nearly half of its value against the USD since March 2022. That may not be the end of it. There are at least three reasons why the country will likely devalue again: a large external-funding problem, limited sources of financing, and expectations that the currency would weaken again, which could prove to be self-fulfilling,” said Ziad Daoud, Bloomberg’s chief emerging markets economist.

The CBE’s decision got ink in the foreign press: Bloomberg | Reuters.

Egypt in talks to borrow from UAE to purchase Kazakh wheat

We’re looking for more funding from the UAE to fund wheat imports: Egypt is in talks with an unnamed Emirati bank to finance wheat purchases from Kazakhstan, Reuters reports, citing three traders it says have knowledge of the matter. The value and terms of the loan as well as the amount and price of the wheat purchase it would cover are yet to be determined, the sources said.

A lower-priced alternative to Russian grain? Kazakhstan could provide a better-priced option after Moscow reportedly int ervened to st op at least one recent purchase of Russian wheat by state grain buyer GASC on grounds that the pricing undercut an unofficial price floor.

Shipping could prove a problem: Traders are quoted as telling Reuters any purchase of Kazakh wheat could be logistically challenging since delivering the wheat from the landlocked Central Asian country would require sending it overland through other countries.

This wouldn’t be the first time the UAE finances our wheat: The potential transaction would be the second Emirati-funded wheat purchase after Egypt signed a USD 500 mn agreement with the Abu Dhabi Exports Office in August to purchase wheat from Emirati agribusiness Al Dahra.

Remember: Egypt, the world’s largest wheat importer, has received funding from international lenders to purchase grain since the Russia-Ukraine war disrupted the global food markets, which helped trigger a prolonged FX crunch in Egypt and sent wheat prices soaring. Aside from the ADEX loan, the World Bank, the International Islamic Trade Finance Corporation and others have together provided bns of USD in loans for wheat imports.

Meanwhile, we’re getting a Ukrainian wheat shipment soon: Ukraine has dispatched a grain shipment from the Black Sea port of Chornomorsk to Egypt on Friday, loading nearly 18k ton of wheat, Reuters and Bloomberg write, citing the Ukrainian Infrastructure Minister Oleksandr Kubrakov’s post on X. This is the second major grain shipment leaving the Ukrainian port after Russia withdrew from the Black Sea Grain pact in July; the wheat is traveling through a temporary maritime corridor that runs parallel to the Romanian and Bulgarian coasts.

AIIB has a pipeline north of USD 1 bn for Egypt, including backing our maiden panda bond –Kouchouk

What’s the AIIB and why does it matter to us? The Asian International Infrastructure Bank (AIIB) is holding its annual meeting in Sharm El-Sheikh on tomorrow and Tuesday (25-26 September). The Beijing-backed lender has built a wide footprint, been granted permanent observer status at the UN — and ruffled the feathers of folks who object to China’s effort to project influence across emerging markets.

We sat down with Vice Minister of Finance Ahmed Kouchouk (LinkedIn) totalk about AIIB, its role in promoting investment, and the importance of engaging with the private sector. Also on our list of questions was the lender’s current and upcoming projects in Egypt and its involvement in our maiden CNY-denominated panda bond issuance.

Why’s Kouchouk — a very familiar face to Enterprise readers — talking about the AIIB? The vice minister for fiscal policies and institutional reform at the Finance Ministry is also AIIB’s director for constituency six, which includes Egypt, Algeria, Argentina, Brazil, Morocco, Sudan, and Tunisia, among 12 other countries.

ICYMI- AIIB officials virtually joined Finance Minister Mohamed Maait, Kouchouk, and a number of private sector players at the Finance Ministry’s headquarters in the New Administrative Capital earlier this month to discuss how the Beijing-backed multilateral lender can benefit private-sector players ahead of the bank’s annual meeting.

Edited excerpts of our conversation:

ENTERPRISE: How significant is it that Egypt is hosting the upcoming AIIB conference in Sharm El Sheikh?

AHMED KOUCHOUK: Hosting the AIIB’s annual meetings this week underscores Egypt's significance regionally and globally as a founding AIIB member. It presents a prime opportunity to showcase Egypt's potential to investors and promote its role as a major logistics hub. The seminars and sessions scheduled for the annual meetings are expected to further enhance the private sector's role and enable it to leverage AIIB's expertise in mobilizing financial resources for investments. The event is expected to draw around 2k participants, including members and heads of state delegations, finance ministers, heads of central banks, observers, AIIB members, dignitaries, international public figures, invited guests, and members of the media.

E: Can you tell us about any specific projects the AIIB has for Egypt in the pipeline?

AK: AIIB's current investment portfolio in Egypt amounts to USD 1.3 bn. The most important part of the portfolio is the Benban Solar Park project to produce clean and renewable energy production, which is led by the private sector. Anticipated investments in the pipeline total just over USD 1 bn, including a USD 500 mn panda bond issuance partially guaranteed by AIIB, a USD 100 mn public-private partnership project for the development of D amietta P ort, and USD 150 mn in non-sovereign financing in collaboration with Banque Misr for various sustainable infrastructure projects.

E: What outcomes are you hoping to come out of the meetings?

AK: The most ideal outcomes revolve around the opportunities and partnerships that Egypt's private sector can establish with the lender. We’re also hoping that there will be an exchange of ideas about how to facilitate financing to the private sector, how best to tackle climate issues in terms of mitigation and using resources, and ideas to boost sustainability and green infrastructure in member countries. Additionally, we want to highlight the importance of cooperation between Africa and Asia. Both continents have immense potential and already have significant trade and investment ties.

E: Egypt is no stranger to international development banks. What can the AIIB do for Egypt that other development finance institutions (DFIs) can’t?

AK: AIIB's unique mandate focuses on addressing the significant infrastructure financing gap that other DFIs have not covered. This makes AIIB distinct in its approach. AIIB's core strategy includes private capital mobilization, which aligns well with Egypt's 2030 vision. Egypt's status as the first non-regional country to join AIIB and its substantial shareholding in the lender, with a subscription of USD 650 mn, adds another layer of significance to its relationship with the bank.

E- How different are the internal workings and decision making processes of the AIIB (particularly concerning Egypt) from other DFIs?

AK: The AIIB operates with a comprehensive and inclusive decision-making process, involving all categories of economies, from advanced to low-income. What sets AIIB apart is that every member has a voice and influence in shaping the bank's activities, financing, vision, and strategy. Egypt is considered a regional country in terms of establishment and financing within the bank, and a non-regional country in location. Importantly, AIIB's unique attribute lies in providing emerging markets and developing countries with a larger voting power than traditional DFIs. This fosters a distinct dynamic that requires consensus-building and genuine discussions on various topics, even when viewpoints vary.

E: Tell us more about the bank’s involvement in our upcoming green bond issuance.

AK: The bank is co-guaranteeing our maiden panda bond issuance along with the African Development Bank (AfDB), which is expected before year-end under the lender’s sustainable transportation and digital infrastructure program. The issuance is expected to be covered by both DFIs, with AIIB backing the issuance by USD 200 mn and AfDB around USD 345 mn.

E: Has the AIIB participated in previous green bond issuances?

AK: The lender has issued the equivalent of USD 33.77 bn in sustainable development bonds in 17 currencies, including in EUR, CHF, and CNY, since its inaugural issuance in 2019. This showcases its dedication and contribution to narrowing the vast gap between capital markets and sustainable infrastructure development.

E: What do Egyptian businesses have to gain from the country’s ties to the AIIB, considering that the bank’s focus (so far) has been around large infrastructure projects?

AK: Although the bank has a substantial portfolio in large infrastructure projects, it has also been active in financing SMEs in the infrastructure space, including investing in closed-end private equity funds specializing in financing different social infrastructure projects. It has also financed smaller sized projects in several sectors, particularly in energy. One very important arrangement for the AIIB is the Damietta Port upgrade, which will be the first PPP project financed by AIIB. This project will ensure enhanced and increased private sector participation and capital mobilization in an important sector of the economy.

E: Is it easier for Egypt to obtain funding from the AIIB than other multilateral institutions?

AK: As one of the lender’s first founding members and the largest shareholder from Africa, Egypt is treated as a regional country when it comes to financing availability and better terms. This allows Egypt to be considered for a wider portfolio of projects and activities in several sustainable sectors such as energy, transportation, and ICT, to name a few.

Onion export ban, GERD negotiations and more election talk on Egypt’s talk shows

It was another slow night for business news on the talk shows last night, with most of the nation’s talking heads covering the incoming export ban on onions, new details on the recently announced social support measures, and the ongoing GERD negotiations.

The onion export ban was a hot topic on the airwaves, with several pundits, including Ala Masouleety’s Ahmed Moussa (watch, runtime: 3:05), talking it up. Hatem Al Naguib, deputy head of the vegetables and fruits division at the Federation of Egyptian Chambers of Commerce, dropped into El Hekaya (watch, runtime: 6:46), and Magdy El Waily, member of the Agriculture Export Council, spoke to Masaa DMC’s Osama Kamal (watch, runtime: 14:30), to explain the three-month onion export ban starting 1 October aims to stabilize high onion prices locally. We have more in What We're Tracking Today.

More on social support measures: Kelma Akhira host Lamees El Hadidi spoke with the head of the National Organization For Social Ins. Gamal Awad (watch, runtime : 11:24), who clarified that the EGP 600 bonus for pensioners will be paid in November alongside October's payment. Awad also explained that the EGP 300 increase to this payment will be funded from the state budget, rather than by the pension funds.

ALSO GETTING ATTENTION-

The presidential election: Lamees El Hadidi (watch, runtime: 5:10) and Al Hayah Al Youm’s Lobna Asal (watch, runtime: 7:39) touched on the presidential election timeline being announced tomorrow — and covered more support from parties and syndicates for President Abdel Fattah El Sisi to seek a third term in office.
The Menendez corruption scandal: El Hekaya’s Amr Adib commented on the indictment of US Senator Bob Menendez for alleged corruption reportedly linked in part to unnamed Egyptian officials, emphasizing to his viewers that the full details are not yet known (watch, runtime: 4:09).
GERD talks: Masaa DMC’s Osama Kamal commented on yesterday’s resumption of GERD talks between Egypt, Ethiopia and Sudan. “Nothing has changed from 10 years ago,” he said, calling on the government to increase pressure on Ethiopia to make concessions (watch, runtime: 3:13).
Egypt’s aid to Libya: Al Hayah Al Youm carried an update on the humanitarian aid sent by Egypt to victims of the floods in Libya. (watch, runtime: 9:24)

Indictment of US Senate Foreign Relations Committee chairman has Egypt angle

Leading the conversation on Egypt in the international press: New Jersey senator Robert Menendez has temporarily stepped down as chairman of the powerful Senate Foreign Relations Committee after being indicted for allegedly accepting bribes to covertly aid Egypt and help a friend sidestep criminal charges. Menendez rejects the charges and claims that prosecutors have “misrepresented the normal work of a Congressional office.” (Associated Press | Reuters | AFP | New York Times | Washington Post | Wall Street Journal | Politico | The National)

Also making headlines: Egypt to ship renewably-generated power to the UK: The UK is set to be one of the beneficiaries of planned electricity interconnections between Egypt and Europe, which will export power generated from Egypt’s wind and solar plants across the Mediterranean. (The Telegraph)

Egypt ups oil + gas investment forecast this fiscal year. PLUS: Adnoc service stations are here, IFC x Banque du Caire, and news from Avanz Capital, Orascom Investment + EgyptAir

ENERGY-

#1- The oil + gas sector could attract more investment this year than originally thought: The Oil Ministry has upped its investment forecast for the oil and gas sector to USD 8.5-9 bn this fiscal year, up from its previous estimate of USD 7.7-8 bn, Oil Minister Tarek El Molla told As harq Busine ss. This would be almost 60% higher than FY 2022-2023, when foreign companies invested USD 5.7 bn in the sector.

Remember: Several international oil and gas firms have made new investment commitments in recent weeks. BP has committed to investing USD 3.5 bn over the next three years, Eni and its partners will spend USD 7.7 bn over four years, while a press report last week claimed that Chevron will deploy USD 3 bn to develop the Nargis gas field.

#2- Three new Adnoc service stations in Cairo: The distribution arm of the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (Adnoc) has opened three service stations in Egypt, the company said in a press release (pdf) yesterday. The stations are located in Maadi, Obour City, and the Suez Ring Road.

Remember: Adnoc Distribution comp leted its acquisition of a 50% s take in fuel retailer TotalEnergies Egypt in February, marking the company’s entry into the Egyptian fuel distribution market.

Six more stations before the year is out: The company plans to open six additional service stations across the country by the end of this year, according to the press release.

#3- Enap Sipetrol to explore for oil in Gulf of Suez: President Abdel Fattah El Sisi has sign a law authorizing Oil Minister Tarek El Molla to contract Chile’s Enap Sipetrol and the Egyptian General Petroleum Corporation to carry out oil exploration and extraction in the Gulf of Suez, according to the Official Gazette.

FYI- Enap is well acquainted with the Egyptian market, having been awarded one of eight oil and gas exploration blocks at the beginning of 2022.

CLIMATE-

#1- IFC is helping BdC go green: The International Finance Corporation (IFC) will partner with Banque du Caire (BdC) to develop a climate finance strategy that will protect the bank from climate risks and help it invest in green projects, it said on Thursday. Under the partnership, the IFC will review BdC’s existing climate finance assets and screen its portfolio against climate risks. The German government is supporting the project.

#2- Avanz Capital wants to partner up with international institutions to set up investment company EgyCOP, Managing Director Haytham Wagih told Enterprise. Avanz is in advanced talks with potential investors, institutions that can provide technical assistance, consulting firms, auditors, and verifiers, he said. Avanz hopes to launch the private investment fund by December or January, Wagih said. The news was first picked up by Al Mal.

Remember: EgyCOP is set to invest in low-carbon projects that issue carbon credits. It will complement the EGX’s planned voluntary carbon market, which policymakers are working to get off the gro und.

Capital increase for Avanz Manara still in the works: Private equity vehicle Avanz Manara is still working to increase its capital, Wagih said. Avanz Capital launched Manara last year with initial capital of EGP 905 mn, and in February said it has plans to raise this to EGP 2 bn via two capital increases over the course of this year.

EDUCATION-

Korea to fund Beni Suef tech uni upgrade: The Korea International Cooperation Agency (KOICA) signed a USD 8 mn agreement with the ministries of higher education and international cooperation to invest USD 8 mn in Beni Suef Technological University, according to a s tatemen t issued by the university. The project will be implemented over the next six years.

LOGISTICS-

EgyptAir resumes air cargo flights to the US: EgyptAir has resumed air cargo flights between Egypt and the US after an eight-year hiatus, the Civil Aviation Ministry said Friday.

DIVESTMENT-

OIH is exiting Brazil: Orascom Investment Holding’s (OIH) board has agreed to sell 100% of the assets it owns in Brazil, according to the m inutes ( pdf) of a Thursday meeting. OIH first said it had received an offer on the assets — a total of six units spanning 2.3k square meters in São Paulo — back in May, representing 10% of OIH’s total equity. Zilla Capital acted as the sole financial advisor to OIH on the transaction.

AND– Last week’s board meeting also saw the appointment of Mona Zulficar and Elia Tharwat Basili as independent non-executive board members.

TOURISM-

Abu Galum eco hotel incoming? The Environment Ministry will partner with unnamed private sector players to build an EGP 60 mn eco hotel in the Abu Galum nature reserve in South Sinai, Al Mal reports, citing sources at the ministry. The ministry is looking to build eco hotels at 13 of the country’s protected reserves, including Ras Muhammad, Nabq, Wadi Al Rayyan, Wadi Al Gamal, Wadi Degla, and Siwa, the source added.

ALSO ON OUR RADAR Avanz Capital Management banking Banque du Caire carbon credits development finance Education EgyCop Egypt-South Korea relations EgyptAir Egyptian General Petroleum Corporation Enap Sipetrol energy Environment Ministry International Finance Corporation investment watch logistics oil and gas Orascom Investment Holding tourism Zilla Capital

8

PLANET FINANCE

Greenback hits six-month high as Fed warns rates will remain higher for longer

Hawkish Fed sends USD to six-month high: The USD reached its highest level in six months on Friday as investors took a pessimistic view on interest rates in the wake of the Federal Reserve meeting last week, the Financial Times reports. The central bank’s indication that interest rates will need to stay higher for longer to curb inflation sent the currency to highs against the EUR, the GBP and the JPY not seen since March, and triggered sell-offs in the equity and treasury markets.

A two-month rally: The USD index — which tracks the greenback against a basket of currencies — has risen more than 6% since its recent low in mid-July.

Why this matters for countries like Egypt: This isn’t good news for countries with USD-denominated debts or for those heavily dependent on imports. A stronger greenback makes it more expensive to service USD debt and to pay for imports.

ALSO WORTH NOTING-

Hedge funds are adding fuel to the oil rally: Hedge funds are placing large bets that oil prices will surpass USD 100, putting further upward pressure on prices being driven by Saudi Arabia and Russia’s supply cuts. (F inancial Tim es )
Aussie LNG strikes ended: Striking Australian LNG workers have sealed an agreement with US energy giant Chevron, putting an end to two weeks of disruption that threatened to take as much as 10% of global supply off the market. (Reuters)

EGX30	20,081	+1.4% (YTD: +37.6%)
USD (CBE)	Buy 30.83	Sell 30.96
USD at CIB	Buy 30.85	Sell 30.95
Interest rates CBE	19.25% deposit	20.25% lending
Tadawul	10,949	-1.0% (YTD: +4.4%)
ADX	9,849	0.0% (YTD: -3.5%)
DFM	4,169	-0.3% (YTD: +25.0%)
S&P 500	4,320	-0.2% (YTD: +12.5)
FTSE 100	7,684	+0.1% (YTD: +3.1%)
Euro Stoxx 50	4,207	-0.1% (YTD: +10.9%)
Brent crude	USD 93.27	0.0%
Natural gas (Nymex)	USD 2.64	+1.0%
Gold	USD 1,945.60	+0.3%
BTC	USD 26,591	+0.2% (YTD: +60.9%)

THE CLOSING BELL-

The EGX30 rose 1.4% at Thursday’s close on turnover of EGP 2.0 bn (8.2% below the 90-day average). Regional investors were net sellers. The index is up 37.6% YTD.

In the green: Egypt Kuwait Holding (+8.9%), Talaat Moustafa Group (+6.1%), and Telecom Egypt (+4.5%).

In the red: Alexandria Containers and Cargo Handling (-2.6%), Qalaa Holdings (-1.8%), and Beltone Holding (-0.7%).

GERD talks resume in Ethiopia + Egypt’s foreign minister backs multipolar world order in UN General Assembly address

Back to the negotiating table: Delegations from Egypt, Ethiopia, and Sudan met yesterday in the Ethiopian capital Addis Ababa in another attempt to break the deadlock in the long-running dispute over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), the Irrigation Ministry s aid yesterday.

This is the second round of talks in less than a month: The three sides met for the first time in two years in Cairo last month in a round of talks that ended without a breakthrough.

Remember: The leaders of Egypt and Ethiopia pledged in July to finalize an agreement within four months on the filling and operation of the USD 4.6 bn hydroelectric dam. Ethiopia has been unilaterally filling the dam’s reservoir for the past three years without an agreement, inflaming tensions between the two countries.

Phase four, complete: Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed announced earlier this month that the country had completed the fourth and final phase of filling the reservoir of the dam.

The talks are getting attention internationally: AFP | The National.

Shoukry bangs the drum for multilateralism at the UN: The current international system is “incapable” of solving the multiple crises facing the world,Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry said in his address to the UN General Assembly yesterday, calling for a reformed world order that addresses the needs of developing countries (watch, runtime: 18:37). Countries in the Global South including Egypt are faced with “cascading and interlocking crises” yet do not receive adequate support from global organizations, he said, accusing major powers of taking unilateral decisions without regard for the rest of the world.

The solution? Shoukry called for fairer global representation in international institutions including by adding two permanent African representatives at the UN Security Council, and expanding tools needed to address chronic economic problems in low- and middle-income countries such as debt relief, concessional loans, and greater access to multilateral lenders.

Shoukry also:

Criticized Ethiopia ’s unilateral filling of the GERD without an agreement
Highlighted the progress on global climate talks achieved at last year’s COP27 summit;
Emphasized Egypt’s efforts to bring about a ceasefire in Sudan ;
Reiterated Egypt’s defense of Palestine ’s right to self-determination;
Called for all foreign fighters to withdraw from Libya ;
Defended Egypt’s human rights record.

Also from the UN General Assembly:

Preparing for COP28: Shoukry, who is currently COP president, and COP President-Elect Sultan Al Jaber chaired a meeting on Friday during the UN General Assembly to discuss funding arrangements for the loss and damage fund, which was established during COP27. Earlier in the week, Shoukry spoke at a meeting addressing climate loss and damage, stressing the pivotal role of international financial institutions in providing funding for developing countries. He also outlined Egypt’s strategies to cut carbon emissions and transition to renewable energy at a separate summit.

New BRICS buddies: Shoukry met with his R ussia n, B razili an, Indian, and So uth African counterparts in separate meetings to discuss strengthening economic and trade relations in light of Eg ypt’s recent invita tion to join the bloc of emerging economies.

And East Med friends: Shoukry met with his Israeli counterpart Eli Cohen on the sidelines of the General Assembly on Thursday to discuss the Eastern Mediterranean Gas Forum and other areas of economic cooperation, as well as the conflict in the occupied Palestinian territories. Shoukry also met with the Greek and Cypriot foreign ministers to discuss energy, economic and trade ties.

ALSO- The foreign minister met the top diplomats from Yemen and Portugal.

CALENDAR

SEPTEMBER

19-26 September (Tuesday-Tuesday): UN General Assembly, New York.

23-29 September (Saturday-Friday): Engineering Export Council of Egypt Iraqi trade mission.

25 September (Monday): Nasdaq deadline for Swvl Holdings Corp to increase its market value of publicly held shares to a minimum of USD 15 mn.

25-26 September (Monday-Tuesday): Egypt to host the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank’s annual board meeting, Sharm El Sheikh.

27 September (Wednesday): Prophet Muhammad’s birthday.

26 September (Tuesday): Taqa Arabia’s ordinary general assembly meeting.

27 September (Wednesday): Deadline for bidding in the fifth phase of the investment map offered by the Industrial Development Authority (IDA).

27 September (Wednesday): Deadline for bidding in tender for five solar plants on north coast.

28 September (Thursday): Eastern Company will hold an ordinary general assembly meeting to approve the company’s financials for the 2022-2023 FY.

28 September (Thursday): National holiday in observance of Prophet Muhammad’s birthday (TBC).

28-29 September (Thursday-Friday): Medical Tourism Conference, Sharm El Sheikh.

30 September (Saturday): The start of the new academic year for Egyptian universities.

30 September (Saturday): The start of the new academic year for Egyptian schools.

Signposted to happen sometime in September:

Sustainable Debt Coalition Initiative agreed at COP27 to launch
IDH to open first branch in Saudi Arabia
The Egypt-Germany trade and investment joint conference in Cairo
ADQ to acquire stakes in Elab, Ethydco and EDC by end of month

OCTOBER

1 October (Sunday): Public-sector minimum wage hike, other financial support measures come into effect.

1 October (Sunday): Onion export ban goes into effect.

1-3 October (Sunday-Tuesday) International Expotec for water economics management, Egypt International Exhibition Center, Fifth Settlement, Cairo.

2-5 October (Monday-Thursday): ADIPEC 2023, Abu Dhabi National Exhibition Center.

2 October (Monday): Government meeting with investors to look into liberalizing electricity grid.

6 October (Friday): Armed Forces Day.

7 October (Saturday): HHD shareholders to consider NOSI’s offer to acquire Heliopark land.

9 October (Monday): The Narrative PR Summit, Somabay Red Sea.

9-11 October (Monday-Wednesday): Arabs Savings and Financial Literacy Conference, Four Seasons Hotel.

10-12 October ( Tuesday-Thursday) Ceramica Expo, Cairo International Convention Center.

13 October- 20 October (Friday-Friday): The sixth edition of El Gouna Film Festival (GFF).

Late October-14 November: 3Q2023 earnings season.

15-17 October (Sunday-Tuesday): Egypt Automotive Aftermarket Exhibition, Cairo International Convention Center.

26 October (Thursday): Daylight saving time ends.

29-31 October (Sunday-Tuesday): Egypt Energy, Egypt International Exhibition Center.

29 October - 2 November (Sunday- Thursday): Cairo Water Week.

30-31 October (Monday-Tuesday): Intelligent Cities Exhibition and Conference, Dusit Thani LakeView, Cairo.

30-31 October (Monday-Tuesday): Global Business School Network (GBSN), American University of Cairo.

31 October - 1 November (Tuesday-Wednesday): Federal Reserve interest rate meeting.

Signposted to happen some time in October:

Deadline for ins. providers to link their databases with the FRA
Egyptian-Jordanian Business Council, Amman, Jordan
Gov’t expects to finalize sale of Gabal El Zeit wind plant
October or November: Gov’t expects to finalize stake sale for military-owned fuel retailer Wataniya

NOVEMBER

2 November (Thursday): Central Bank of Egypt’s Monetary Policy Committee meeting.

8 November (Wednesday): Turkish-Arab Economic Forum 2023, Istanbul.

9-15 November (Thursday-Wednesday): Intra-African Trade Fair, Cairo.

14-15 November (Tuesday-Wednesday): Destination Africa, Royal Maxim Palace Kempinski Hotel.

15-24 November (Wednesday-Friday): Cairo International Film Festival, Cairo.

19-22 November (Sunday-Wednesday): Cairo ICT, Egypt International Exhibition Center.

22 November (Wednesday): Deadline to apply to FRA for credit rating license.

23 November (Thursday): Worldview Education Fair, Cairo. (Register here)

30 November-12 December (Thursday-Tuesday): COP28, Dubai.

DECEMBER

9-15 December (Saturday-Friday) :The Engineering Export Council of Egypt’strade mission to Saudi Arabia.

10-11 December (Sunday-Monday): eGlobe Expo, St. Regis Almasa Hotel, Cairo.

12-13 December (Tuesday-Wednesday): Federal Reserv

e interest rate meeting.

12-14 December (Tuesday-Thursday): Food Africa Expo, Egypt International Exhibition Center.

20 December (Wednesday): End of sugar export ban.

21 December (Thursday): Central Bank of Egypt’s Monetary Policy Committee meeting.

Signposted to happen sometime in December:

Gov’t expects to finalize sale of a stake in military-owned bottled drinks company Safi
Gov’t expects to finalize sale of Zafarana wind farm

EVENTS WITH NO SET DATE

2023: The inauguration of the Grand Egyptian Museum.

2H 2023: Egyptian government expected to sign agreements with a consultant for the EuroAfrica electricity interconnector.

2H 2023: President Abdel Fattah El Sisi and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan expected to hold a summit.

3Q 2023: E-Finance to launch in Saudi Arabia.

4Q 2023: EGX to launch its new futures exchange.

4Q 2023: EGX to launch a shariah-compliant index.

End of 2023: A Developments’ first phase of the Lazoghly development completed.

2024: Standard Chartered Bank to open a branch in Egypt.

June 2024: Gov’t expects to finalize sale of Beni Suef combined-cycle power plant.

1H 2024: Gov’t expects to finalize sale of four water desalination plants.

End of 2024: The launch of the high-speed train line linking Ain Sokhna with Al Alamein City.

November 2024: Egypt to host the 12th session of the World Urban Forum (WUF12).

2Q 2025: Safaga Terminal 2 to start operations.

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