Good morning, friends, and a very happy Sunday to you all. We have a packed issue for you this morning, including why you should care about the upcoming Sharm meeting of the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, the latest from the G20 summit, signs of life on Planet VC, and what you can expect of Apple’s fall event on Tuesday.
Before we get underway: Join us this morning in saying a little prayer for everyone impacted by the devastating earthquake in Morocco.
PSA: There are only four days left for Egyptians living abroad to settle unfulfilled military servi ce in FX. Folks looking to settle their national service obligation will need to deposit USD 5k / EUR 5k into a Banque Misr account at the bank’s Abu Dhabi branch by Wednesday, 13 September. Head here for more information.
COUNTDOWN- There are just 8 days until the Enterprise Finance Forum, which takes place 18-19 September (Monday and Tuesday) at the St. Regis Hotel on the Nile Corniche. This flagship forum is the latest in our must-attend series of invitation-only events, where CEOs, bankers, investors, founders, and corporate leaders will meet to discuss the trends shaping the future of banking, finance, NBFIs, and fintech — and of their clients.
You won’t want to miss this one: Join Hassan Allam (CEO, Hassan Allam Holding), Fernando Morillo (group head of retail banking, Mashreq), Galal El Beshbishy (co-founder and COO, Synapse Analytics), Basma Rady (chief data scientist, Beltone Financial), Larry Lerner (partner, McKinsey), Islam Zekry (group CFO, CIB), and many others for talks on everything from the impact of AI and data science on banking, to the coming of digital and challenger banks.
Tap or click here to REQUEST AN INVITATION or view the FULL AGENDA.
We are honored to count some of the region’s most important financial institutions as our partners for this special event. The Enterprise Finance Forum could not take place without the support of our partners including Banque Misr, Al Baraka Bank, FAB Misr, HSBC, Mashreq, CI Capital, Global Corp, Visa, Hassan Allam Utilities, and the IFC.
HAPPENING TODAY-
#1- It’s inflation day: Capmas and the central bank will release inflation data for August today.
Remember: Annual inflation has been soaring since the start of the war in Ukraine in March 2022, and in July hit a second successive all-time high of 36.5%.
A third record high in a row? A Reuters poll of analysts last week sees the annual urban rate further increasing in August. The median forecast among the survey of 14 analysts and economists sees consumer prices accelerating at a 37.1% clip during the month.
Signs inflation could be slowing down?
- “Underlying momentum should be fading, particularly with global wheat prices down m-o-m and relative stability of the parallel exchange market,” said Carla Slim, MENA economist at Standard Chartered.
- “We expect annual inflation to be nearly flat,” said EFG Hermes’s macro head, Mohamed Abu Basha. “Higher base effect is setting in, but some noise coming from tobacco, and to a lesser extent food prices, are likely to keep inflation elevated.”
#2- G20 wraps: The heads of state of G20 nations — as well as other leaders invited by India, which include President Abdel Fattah El Sisi — will close out the 2023 leaders summit in New Delhi today.
#3- Sahara expo: The Sahara agriculture exhibition kicks off at the Egypt International Exhibition Center (EIEC), showcasing agricultural machinery, water management systems, and post-harvest technologies. The event runs through to Tuesday.
HAPPENING THIS WEEK-
#1- Friday is supposed to be the day that the IMF starts conducting its review of our loan program: As we noted last week, the prospects of an IMF team arriving in town this week look rather slim, with a government official telling Asharq Business that the review will likely not wrap up this month. A source at the Finance Ministry we spoke to was more optimistic but admitted that the Fund was yet to set a date for the mission.
ICYMI- The first review was originally supposed to take place in mid-March but was postponed after we fell short on meeting several key conditions of the loan agreement. The delay means that the IMF is expected to roll the first and second reviews into one when it next comes to Cairo, which would see the disbursement of almost USD 700 mn.
#2- US to make decision on military aid on Thursday: The US State Department is set to decide whether to withhold a portion of Egypt’s annual USD 1.3 bn of military aid on human rights grounds by 14 September.
Remember: A number of Democratic lawmakers in the House and the Senate have called on the Biden administration in recent weeks to withhold a quarter of the USD 1.3 bn. This would be the third consecutive year that Egypt has had some of its military aid withheld: the Biden administration blocked Egypt from receiving USD 130 mn of aid in 2021, a figure that rose to USD 205 mn last year.
#3-The Hydrogen Egypt Summit : The largest green hydrogen industry event in the country will open its doors at the Nile Ritz Carlton on Wednesday and Thursday. Industry leaders at local and global energy players will be attending the event to discuss how to realize Egypt’s potential to become a regional green hydrogen hub.
#4- A big rate-hike in Europe this week? The European Central Bank could decide to go ahead with a large 25-bps interest rate hike at its policy meeting on Thursday, as it looks to combat sticky inflation, writes Bloomberg.
Reminder: The US Federal Reserve will be the next major central bank to hold its meeting. The Federal Open Markets Committee meets next week, on 19-20 September.
TECH TUESDAY-
We’ll get our first look at the new-look iPhone on Tuesday when Apple holds its annual product event. Here’s what you can expect:
- A brand new iPhone: The company is widely expected to unveil the 15th generation of its flagship product and could launch a new top-range Ultra model to replace the Pro Max. (Techcrunch)
- A new Apple Watch: Rumor has it that we’ll be getting first looks at the Apple Watch Series 9 and Ultra 2, upgrades that will reportedly focus more on tech and less on aesthetic overhauls. (Macworld)
Other tech unveilings this fall: Microsoft will show off new hardware on Thursday, 21 September and Google will formally announce the Pixel 8 and an updated watch on Wednesday, 4 October.

THE BIG STORIES ABROAD-
#1- More than 2k dead as r escuers search for survivors of Morocco’s devastating earth quake: A 7.2 magnitude earthquake that hit Morocco’s High Atlas mountains late Friday night has killed more than 2k people and damaged buildings stretching from the mountain range to Marrakech. The death toll is expected to continue to rise as emergency workers search the rubble for survivors. The quake is the country’s deadliest in 120 years.
Egypt reacts: President Abdel Fattah El Sisi and the Foreign Ministry expressed their condolences to the victims of the earthquakes.
News of the disaster is everywhere in the foreign press, from the Associated Press and Reuters to Bloomberg, the Financial Times, the Wall Street Journal and CNBC.
#2- G20: The first day of the G20 leaders summit is also attracting plenty of attention from the Western media, most of which are focusing on yesterday’s joint declaration (pdf) that didn’t condemn Russia for invading Ukraine. Heading into the summit, a joint communique seemed to be a long shot given the divisions over the war in Ukraine though summit host India has apparently been able to convince Western leaders to drop some of the hostile language and agree to a more neutral statement. (Reuters | Bloomberg | Financial Times | New York Times | Wall Street Journal | CNBC)
What you need to know from the first day:
- The African Union now has permanent representation at the G20: The G20 granted permanent membership to the African Union on Saturday, handing it the same level of representation as the EU. (Reuters)
- The W est’s answer to the Belt and Road Initiative? The EU, India, Saudi Arabia, UAE and US signed an MoU for a Middle East-South Asia infrastructure project that would link Middle Eastern nations and India by new rail networks and ports. (Reuters)
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OIL WATCH-
Expect oil prices to keep on rising in the weeks and months ahead after Saudi Arabia and Russia agreed last week to maintain supply curbs through to the end of the year. That’s according to Bloomberg, whose interviews with energy analysts suggest a price spike ahead. “Crude tightness seems quite legitimate and quite real,” said one. “This certainly keeps oil markets on the boil.”
A return to three-figure oil isn’t a certainty: Heading into an election year in the United States, an uptick in inflation is the last thing that President Biden wants — and his administration could choose to release more crude from the strategic petroleum reserve should prices rise significantly. Then there’s China, where just a few months ago a surge in demand was expected to cause serious tightening in the energy markets but now whose economy now seems to be on the cusp of a downturn.
Where we’re at: Oil prices closed Friday at a nine-month high, with Brent up 0.6% at USD 90.40 per a barrel and US crude rising 0.4% to USD 87.20.
What does this mean for emerging markets? The combination of oil price uncertainty, sluggish growth in China and greenback strength will make for a “wild ride” for local emerging markets, according to a note by Barclays strategists picked up by Bloomberg. Risk sentiment in the asset class took a hit towards the end of last week, with MSCI’s EM equities index falling for the second day by 0.5% and EM currencies dropping to a more than two-week low.
What they’re saying: “China’s woes and the US term premia shock sent EM assets on a roller-coaster and make for a challenging backdrop for EM flows,” the strategists wrote, noting that moves in the oil markets have “become hard to ignore.”
CIRCLE YOUR CALENDAR-
#1- Looking to do your master’s degree in the UK? Applications for the British government’s Chevening scholarship will open from Tuesday, 12 September and close on 7 November. The scholarship offers full financial support for students to pursue an eligible master’s degree at over 150 UK universities. Applications will be open here.
#2- Help keep Wadi Degla clean: Trail running events organizer Ultra Ibex is holding a trash clean-up in Cairo’s Wadi Degla between 9-11 am on Friday, 15 September. Volunteers will clear trash from the 3-km stretch from the entrance of the Wadi, the same area where they collected more than 100 bags of trash last year. All proceeds collected from the event will go towards installing 10 new trash collection units in the Wadi. Register to help out here.
Are you a corporate and want to back the cleanup? Our friends at Ultra Ibex are actively looking for partners.
Check out our full calendar on the web for a comprehensive listing of upcoming news events, national holidays and news triggers.





