PM announces fresh measures to curb electricity demand amid rolling blackouts

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What We're Tracking Today

Egypt could sign final agreements for USD 1.9 bn assets sales in August -CNN

Good morning, wonderful people, and welcome to a beautiful Sunday morning packed with plenty of news as you prepare to head into the office, whether you’re driving down from Sahel or about to tackle your usual commute.

Before we get underway: A very happy birthday to the Resident 16 Year Old, who recently completed her first stint in our newsroom. You make Mom and me incredibly proud every single day, kiddo.

SMART POLICY- Big news for folks with unfulfilled national service obligations: From 14 August, Egyptian men living abroad will be able to settle any outstanding military service obligation by paying EUR 5k / USD 5k, the Foreign Ministry said Thursday. Applicants looking to settle obligations will need to register on a website and pay the fees into accounts at Banque Misr, according to the statement. The link to the application portal will go live in the coming days, the ministry siad.

PSA- Fresh off of weeks of 40°C+ temperatures in the capital, the mercury is set to dip to a comparatively balmy 36°C in the capital through the rest of the week, according to Egyptian Meteorological Authority. It’s a forecast that will no doubt be greeted warmly by policymakers who have for the past two weeks been trying to figure out how to support the nation’s electricity infrastructure amid rolling blackouts.

That said: Our favorite weather app suggests it could be slightly hotter than that, with temperatures sitting at 38°C, 39°C tomorrow and then hovering around 40°C through next Sunday.

We’re hoping the national weather service is right with this one, with the prime minister now forecasting blackouts through until the end of August. In a presser on Thursday, Madbouly announced a host of new measures designed to reduce electricity demand and boost fuel supply, including a four-day work-from-office week for public-sector workers, an emergency mazut buy, and fresh electricity rationing in public spaces. We have more in this morning’s news well, below.

We should have more clarity tomorrow: Cabinet has promised to announce tomorrow a detailed schedule for blackouts and will limit outages to a daily total of no more than two hours per district , Cabinet spokesperson Nader Saad said in a televised interview last night ( watch, runtime: 6:41).

MPs REACT TO- The new USD certificates: Our elected representatives have given mixed reactions to the new USD-denominated savings certificates launched last week by the National Bank of Egypt and Banque Misr, with some calling for additional measures to bolster the nation’s FX reserves. Rep. Mohamed Abdel-Hamid, who serves as the deputy of the House Economic Committee, said the move would help to attract fresh FX inflows, but called on policymakers to boost remittances, which have fallen in recent months amid the ongoing currency crisis. This was echoed by opposition MP Sherif Fayyad, who said that the certificates will not be able to close the parallel market on their own.

Remember: The two lenders are offering two three-year certificates: one with a 9% annual percentage rate that pays out interest in EGP up front and another with a 7% rate that pays out in USD quarterly. Savers will have to deposit at least USD 1k to be eligible for the certificates, which will be repaid in USD at maturity.

IN OTHER FX NEWS- The government has sold some USD 2 bn worth of land to companie s in the six months ending 30 June, a rea dout from the weekly cabinet meeting quotes Housing Minister Assem El Gazzar as saying. This came as the minister announced that the New Urban Communities Authority (NUCA) had approved a new batch of land sales under the government’s land-for-FX initiative, which allows foreign investors to circumvent the lengthy auction process by bidding directly for state-owned land , provided they pay in hard currency. The statement didn’t disclose how much of the USD 2 bn was paid in FX.

WATCH THESE SPACES-

#1- Privatization proceeds in the state coffers by September? The government expects to sign the final contracts to sell the USD 1.9 bn of state-owned assets next month and receive the money by September, CNN Arabia reports, quoting an unnamed government official. Investors are currently conducting due diligence on the assets ahead of agreeing final terms, the official reportedly said.

Remember: The government took a big step forward with its privatization agenda earlier this month when Prime Minister Moustafa Madbouly announced agreements to sell stakes in a number of state-owned assets to local and Gulf investors. Around USD 1.65 bn will be paid in foreign currency and the remainder will be in Egypt.

Who’s buying what: ADQ is on board to acquire 30% of two petrochemicals firms and an oil services company, Talaat Moustafa Group and a group of foreign investors will purchase a significant minority stake in some of the country’s most historic hotels, and Al Ezz Dekheila bought back the government’s 31% stake in the company.

#2- US senators call for continued freeze on portion of military aid: Ten United States senators have urge d the Biden administration to withhold a quarter of Egypt’s USD 1.3 bn in annual military aid for the third consecutive year, the Associated Press reports. In a letter (pdf) to President Biden, the senators — nine from the Democratic Party along with independent senator Bernie Sanders — are calling for the administration to freeze USD 320 mn in aid “due to a lack of necessary progress on human rights.”

Remember: The Biden administration blocked Egypt from receiving USD 130 mn of military aid in 2021, a figure that increased to USD 205 mn last year. Around USD 300 mn of total aid given to Egypt is contingent on the country making progress on human rights issues.

#3- Next round of export subsidy payouts pushed by 2 weeks: The Finance Ministry will pay out the third batch of export subsidies under the sixth phase of the program on 16 and 17 August, instead of 2-3 August, it said in a statement Friday . The ministry has so far paid out EGP 8 bn to over 800 companies during the current phase.

REMEMBER- The government says it will quadruple export subsidies this fiscal year, with EGP 28 bn earmarked to the program during the current fiscal year. The larger allocation is aimed at helping the government reach its target to increase exports to USD 100 bn a year by the middle of the decade.

#4- Shalateen Mineral Resources could extend its gold tender: State-owned Shalateen Mineral Resources could apply to the Oil Ministry to extend the bid round for brownfield sites past the current 10 August deadline, Al Borsa reported on Thursday, citing sources it says are familiar with the matter. Shalateen is inviting bids for concessions in five areas of the Eastern Desert. Bidding companies should be producing more than 500k oz of gold a year, have more than 10 mn oz of gold reserves, and have 10 years of experience to qualify.

HAPPENING TODAY-

Key Palestine reconciliation talks are taking place today: Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas and Hamas chief Ismail Haniyeh will attend a new round of reconciliation talks between Palestinian groups taking place in El Alamein today, Al Arabiya reports. The meeting, spearheaded by Egypt to heal the long-running divisions among different Palestinian factions, will be attended by representatives of Fatah, Hamas and the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine. Palestinian Islamic Jihad is boycotting the talks.

El Sisi x Abbas: President Abdel Fattah El Sisi will have a one-on-one with Abbas to discuss the peace process and recent developments in Israel and the occupied territories, the news outlet quotes Palestinian ambassador to Egypt, Diab Al Louh, as saying.

On the menu at the National Dialogue: The dialogue is resuming its general sessions today with get-togethers planned on political rights, trade unions, and local administration. The public session will discuss the 1956 law on political rights, which many political parties want to see amended to introduce a more open political system that provides greater candidacy rights and encourages voting.

For the rest of the week:

Tuesday: Public debt and social justice.
Thursday: Cultural industries and post-divorce issues.

HAPPENING THIS WEEK-

Monday: It’s deadline day for the Smart Green Projects initiative tomorrow.
Tuesday: The Egyptian Exchange will terminate the EGX50 index.
Thursday: The Central Bank of Egypt will meet to discuss interest rates.

THE BIG STORY ABROAD-

There’s good news on the global economy? Huh? The front pages of the global business press are all singing from the same hymn sheet this morning, blaring optimism that the Federal Reserve may just have pulled off a so-called ‘soft landing’; bringing down inflation while preventing the US economy from sinking into recession. As the top stories in each of the Financial Times, Bloomberg and the Wall Street Journal tell us, the economic indicators are good, economists and analysts are happy, and markets are responding with what Bloomberg says is “the biggest sentiment shift since ‘99” as investors pile into stocks.

CIRCLE YOUR CALENDARS- The Enterprise Finance Forum is taking place on 18-19 September at the St. Regis Hotel in Cairo. This flagship forum is the latest in our must-attend series of invitation-only, C-suite-level gatherings that allow senior members of our community to openly and frankly discuss critical issues in key sectors of the economy.

TAP OR CLICK HERE if you want to express interest in attending. We’ll be sending out the first batch of invitations soon.

Do you want to become a commercial partner? Ping a note to Moustafa Taalab, our head of commercial, or fill out this form and we’ll be in touch.

LISTEN TO OUR PODCAST-

DID YOU MISS THE ENTERPRISE EXPORTS AND FDI FORUM? Tune in to the Enterprise Podcast and listen for yourself : The Enterprise Podcast is back with another installment of our forum series, where we bring you audio recordings of what was said on stage at the Enterprise Exports and FDI Forum, which took place in May.

IN THIS WEEK’S EPISODE- We look at whether industrial clusters — which have been used to great effect elsewhere — can be a way for SMEs to be part of a potential export-oriented economy. Our speakers shed light on where industrial zones are working for us already, how Egypt can leverage clusters to get a bigger slice of that cross-border trade, and how industrial clusters can bring together SMEs to work with larger firms. We were joined on that panel by Shady Williams, managing director of IDG, Mohamed ElGebely, team leader at USAID Trade, and Nada El Ahwal, CSO of Transmar.

WANT TO LISTEN? Head to : Apple Podcast | Spotify | Google Podcast . We’re releasing a new episode every Sunday morning.

The new academic year for Egyptian university students will commence on 30 September, the Higher Education Ministry said yesterday. The first semester will end on 26 January, while the second semester is set to start on 10 February through 30 May.

Check out our full calendar on the web for a comprehensive listing of upcoming news events, national holidays and news triggers.

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Egypt introduces new measures to curb electricity demand amid nationwide rolling blackouts

Brace for at least another month of blackouts: The ongoing rolling blackouts will continue until at least the end of August as the summer heatwave continues to put pressure on the country’s electricity network, Prime Minister Moustafa Madbouly said at a presser on Thursda y to announced a n ew batch of measures a imed at curbing demand ( watch, runtime: 24:22).

That’s the new best case scenario: “The country will carry out the procedures announced during August and we hope that by September, alongside the expected drop in temperatures, the situation will begin to go back to normal,” Madbouly said. Daily power cuts of one or two hours will continue as long as the mercury is above 35°C, he added. An Electricity Ministry official said last we ek the power cuts would likely last until the middle of August.

The worst case? The blackouts could extend to the middle of September if the current temperatures don’t dip, c abinet spokesperson Nader Saad said in a televised interview last night ( watch, runtime, 5:35).

More clarity coming: The Electricity Ministry will share a schedule of the power cuts planned for each area, which should be published no later than tomorrow.

MORE MEASURES TO COPE-

#1- More mazut imports: The government will import an extra USD 250-300 mn of mazut by the end of August after exhausting its supplies of the heavy oil. “We have used up all that we have of mazut and have started using more of our natural gas,” Madbouly said . “This expense was not accounted for in the current state budget, creating additional strains on [public finances].”

#2- WFH Sundays: Wherever possible, civil servants who are not customer-facing will work remotely on Sundays starting ne xt Sunday, 6 August, to reduce the government’s electricity consumption. Madbouly urged private-sector employers to do the same.

#3- Rationing electricity: The state will start cutting back on its electricity consumption, reducing street lighting and keeping ACs at 25°C across all government buildings. Madbouly has also directed the Youth and Sports Ministry to reduce electricity use in sports facilities, stadiums, and arenas by scheduling matches before sunset.

#4- A crisis needs a committee: The cabinet has set up a crisis committee to follow up on the issue on a daily basis.

Remember: The government has already introduced a number of measures aimed at reduc ing the electrical load. More gas has been freed up for the grid by reducing supplies to industrial producers, including fertilizer and cement producers. It has also increased the use of mazut from 20k tons per day to 34k tons.

MORE FROM MADBOULY-

It’s only residential areas that are going dark: Hospitals and other strategic facilities will not have their electricity cut, the PM said.

Sahel and the Red Sea are also being spared: The lights will be kept on at coastal areas, according to Madbouly, who said that blackouts in these areas risk impacting the tourism industry.

The energy shortage in numbers: The heatwave has pushed daily electricity consumption to almost 36 GW, which requires some 145 mn cubic meters of natural gas and mazut a day, up more than 12% from the 129 mn cubic-meter average over the past year, Madbouly said. If the state had not introduced daily power cuts, demand for natural gas and mazut could have surged as high as 165 mn cubic meters, he added.

Swiss firm Smartenergy could invest USD 1 bn in Egypt green hydrogen plant

Swiss firm in talks with gov’t for green hydrogen plant: Switzerland-based energy investment firm Smartenergy is close to reaching an agreement with authorities to establish a USD 1 bn green hydrogen facility, Asharq Al Awsat reports, citing sources it says have knowledge of the matter. Company CFO Rene Cotting reportedly confirmed that a green hydrogen agreement between the company and the government is “imminent,” without giving further details.

This would be the firm’s first project outside of Europe:Founded in 2011, Smartenergy invests in solar, wind, and hydrogen projects. The company focuses on late stage development, ready-to-build, and operational assets, and has projects in Switzerland, Germany, Italy, Spain and Portugal, according to its website.

We’re going big on green hydrogen: The government signed framework agreements for nine green hydrogen plants worth USD 83 bn on the sidelines of last year’s COP27 climate summit and has at least one more agreement in the works. Ministers in May approved a package of incentives aimed at stimulating the nascent industry and increasing FX inflows.

Egypt signs USD 319.5 mn of oil and gas exploration agreements

New gas and oil exploration agreements get the thumbs up: Ministers greenlit three oil and gas concession agreements worth USD 319.5 mn that will see three multinational energy companies digging at least 13 wells in the Mediterranean and Gulf of Suez, cabinet sai d after its weekly meeting on Thursday.

Exxon to drill in the Med: Two of the contracts went to ExxonMobil, which will partner with state gas firm EGAS to search for gas and crude oil in the offshore Cairo and Masry concessions in the Mediterranean. The US oil giant acquired both exploration blocks earlier this year and holds 100% interest.

Pico + Kufpec in the Gulf of Suez: The Kuwait Foreign Petroleum Exploration Company (Kufpec) , a sub sidiary of the country’s state oil company, will work with Pico Petroleum (Egypt’s largest independent player) and Egypt’s state oil firm, the Egyptian General Petroleum Corporation (EGPC), to explore for oil in the Geisum and Tawila West concessio n in the Gulf of Suez. Pico owns 60% of the development lease while Kufpec holds the remaining 40%.

Morgan Stanley cuts Egypt growth outlook

Bulge bracket investment bank Morgan Stanley has lowered its growth outlook for Egypt, writing in a research note seen by Asharq Business that it expects the economy to expand at a 4.2% clip during FY 2023-2024, down from 5.0% previously. This comes less than a week after the IMF revised downwards its 2024 growth forecast to 4.1% from 5.0%.

Another deval incoming: Morgan Stanley analysts expect another EGP devaluation in September or October, coinciding with when it expects the IMF to go ahead with its first review of the USD 3 bn loan program, Masrawy reports. The bank expects the Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) to hike interest rates by another 200 bps to 20.25% alongside the devaluation.

We could be looking at another uneventful MPC meeting this week: Morgan Stanley is expecting the Central Bank of Egypt to leave rates unchanged when it meets on Thursday, citing the government’s recent progress with its privatization agenda and its impact on stabilizing the exchange rate, according to Masrawy. The central bank has left interest rates on hold in the previous two MPC meetings.

Egypt’s central bank suspends tourism financing initiative

Subsidized loans to the tourism industry are history: The Central Bank of Egypt has suspended the tourism financing initiative and instructed banks to stop disbursing loans at reduced interest rates to companies operating in the sector, it said in a sta t ement (pdf) lat week.

Out with the old, in with the new: The CBE is currently working along with the ministries of finance, tourism and antiquities on launching a new initiative for the tourism sector, the statement reads, without providing more information.

As with most things these days, there’ll be an FX conditionality: The new initiative will be open only to those who make FX-denominated investments, make FX deposits, or make transactions through Egyptian banks in a way that supports closing the country’s FX gap, a government source told Enterprise yesterday on condition of anonymity.

The scheme could be up and running in 2-3 months: The entities responsible for the new initiative will consult with industry leaders with a view to launch the initiative in the next two to three months, the source added.

Arab Monetary Fund lends USD 616 mn to Egypt to support financial sector

A new loan from the AMF to support the financial sector: The Arab Monetary Fund (AMF) is lending Egypt USD 615.8 mn under its Structural Adjustment Facility to support our financial and banking sectors, the Fund said in a statement.

Where will the money go? The loan will help upgrade the nation’s payment system s infrastructure, support financial inclusion and improve the regulatory framework for the banking and financial sector, the statement reads.

This isn’t the first time the AMF has lent us a hand: Egypt last year received a USD 368 mn loan from the AMF to aid our post-covid recovery, a year after getting the final tranche of a USD 639 mn loan from the fund. Including the new facility, the AMF has provided Egypt with a total of 16 loans by our count, worth an estimated USD 3.2 bn.

Remember: The government is still waiting on the IMF to decide a date for the first review of our USD 3 bn loan program, which will unlock the second tranche of the facility. A first review of the program has been on hold since mid-March after the country fell short of meeting several key conditions of the loan agreement.

The news got attention internationally: Bloomberg.

Egypt’s external debt notches new record high in 3Q 2022-23

Egypt’s external debt climbed 1.5% to USD 165.4 bn in 3Q FY 2022-2023, up from USD 162.9 bn in the previous quarter, according to central bank data published last week. This is almost 5% up from the same quarter last year when external borrowing clocked in at USD 157.8 bn.

Egypt’s external position has come under pressure on the back of a stronger USD, higher interest rates, and turmoil in the financial markets. The EGP has lost more than half of its value against the USD since last year. Egypt’s external debt has quadrupled over the past decade as the country has ramped up borrowing from multilateral lenders and the international debt markets.

Policy makers are trying to slow the increase: Planning Minister Hala El Said said in June that the government will only take on soft foreign-currency loans to use for its long-term development objectives.

Mahmoud Mohieldin appointed chair of board of trustees at Nile University

Mahmoud Mohieldin( LinkedIn) has been appointed chair of the board of trustees at Nile University, replacing the former Arab League secretary-general Amr Moussa, according to a statement (pdf) out last week. Mohieldin has a long history of occupying senior positions in government and policy making, including serving as Egypt’s investment minister (2005-2010), and senior vice president at the World Bank (2016-2020). He is currently an executive director at the IMF, a special envoy to the UN secretary-general, and was chosen to be Egypt’s UN high-level climate champion for COP27. He has been a visiting professor at Nile University since 2018.

ICYMI- Enterprise Climate recently sat down with Mohieldin to discuss climate finance, the global energy transition, COP28, and the latest updates on the landmark loss and damage agreed at COP27. Read the interview here:Part 1 Part 2

Blackouts and hot weather continue to dominate the conversation on Egypt’s talk shows

The nation’s talking heads weren’t in shortage of topics yesterday where they covered everything from blackouts to the government’s management of the crisis and to the extreme global weather conditions and forecasts. The National Bank of Egypt and Banque Misr’s new saving certificates were still getting attention while an economist didn’t have great things to say about Moody’s forthcoming outlook on Egypt’s credit rating.

Blackouts could extend to mid-September -cabinet spokesman: While cabinet hopes we’ll see relief by the end of July, the worst case scenario could see rolling blackouts continue through mid-September should the weather sustain these high temperature levels, Cabinet Spokesperson Nader Saad told Ala Mas’ouleety’s Ahmed Moussa yesterday ( watch, runtime, 5:35).

What’s different about this year? While temperatures have been this high before , we saw the mercury sustained at this high a level only for three days in July last year, said Saad, adding that this has strained our ability to provide enough gas and mazut to cover the elevated demand.

Importing mazut again after a four-month hiatus: The government stopped importing mazut in March thinking that it could rely on local production during the summer and not anticipating the prolonged heat wave seen this month, said Saad. It now plans to spend USD 250-300 mn by the end of August on importing new supplies of mazut in bid to end the crisis, Madbouly said in the presser on Thursday.

Don’t blame it on the weather, says Amr Adib: El Hekaya’s Amr Adib took note of the PM’s presser on Thursday and criticized the cabinet for what he called “mismanagement of the crisis” and “poor communication with the public.” The government should be straightforward and honest with the public about the causes of the problem rather than just “blaming it on the weather,” he told his viewers ( watch, runtime: 25:16).

This extreme heatwave wasn’t a surprise because we are able to forecast weather conditions up to three months in the future, though the level of precision decreases over longer periods, Manar Ghanem, an official at the Egyptian Meteorological Authority official told El Hadidi ( watch, runtime: 6:25). Al Hayah Al Youm took note of the blackout measures taken by several countries around the world including the United Kingdom, France, and Italy ( watch, runtime: 8:02), while Adeeb had a segment on the detrimental effects of the current global heatwaves on living creatures ( watch, runtime: 2:56)

Solar users won’t be spared: Households running on solar energy panels that are linked to the national grid will not be spared from the blackouts, Infinity General Manager Hesham El Gamal told El Hadidi ( watch, runtime: 17:47).

OF CDs AND CREDIT DOWNGRADES-

Another Moody’s downgrade would hurt: Moody’s is expected to downgrade its Egypt outlook when it publishes its review in the next few days, a move which would be “painful” for the country, economist Medhat Nafea told Lamees El Hadidi ( watch, runtime: 6:00) yesterday. “Another downgrade is likely in the case that Moody’s doesn’t consider the recently announced sale of USD 1.9 bn worth of state-owned assets a serious step into implementing comprehensive economic reforms,” he said. El Hadidi also took note of the IMF’s latest forecasts for Egypt, which see lower growth and higher inflation in 2024 ( watch, runtime: 3:30).

CD rules don’t breach int’l money laundering regs, says banker: Buyers of the new USD-denominated CDs will not be asked about the source of their money, banking expert Tarek Metwally told Kelma Akhira’s Lamees El Hadidi ( watch, runtime: 11:31) yesterday, adding that the banks will only conduct the routine know-your-customer procedures (KYC) when approached by new customers. This KYC is enough to give the bank an idea about the source of the money used to buy the c ertificates , he added, refuting any violations of international money laundering standards.

Orascom Pyramids to double investment in Giza Plateau redevelopment. PLUS: Tabreed halts investment amid EGP uncertainty

INVESTMENT-

#1- Orascom wants to invest another EGP 500 mn on Giza Plateau revamp: Orascom Inves tment Holding (OIH) subsidiary Orascom Pyramids wants to invest a total EGP 1 bn to develop the area around the Giza Pyramids, Chairman Amr Gazarin told Asharq Business ( w atch, runtime: 3: 45). The company has already invested EGP 500 mn to upgrade the area around the Giza Pyramids.

A 50-50 partnership with the state: The government will be entitled to 50% of the company’s revenues and no less than EGP 20 mn per year, Gazarin said, adding that the goal is to double the number of visitors to the area to 5 mn a year.

#2- EGP uncertainty means no new investment from Tabreed anytime soon: Dubai-listed district cooling firm Tabreed sees Egypt as a “promising market” but is “slowing down” plans for additional investment as it waits for a stable outlook on the EGP, Chief Financial Officer Adel Al Wahedi told Asharq Business ( w atch, runtime: 7 :20). Tabreed entered Egypt in February 2022 with a contract to provide cooling services for Marakez’s D5M Mall in New Cairo and in September it landed an EGP 1.6 bn contract for the CapitalMed Badr City medical complex . Al Wahedi did not disclose how this would impact its ongoing projects.

INFRASTRUCTURE-

An update on the Sokhna port redevelopment: The first phase of the development of the Ain Sokhna port will wrap before the end of 2023, Asharq Business reports, citing statements given by Transport Ministry Kamel El Wazir to the press on Thursday. The ministry began the redevelopment of the port in 2021 at a cost of EGP 20 bn. El Wazir’s statements came during a ceremony which saw the ministry hand over the area to the consortium of private-sector companies which will construct a new terminal. Hutchison Ports, Cosco and CMA CGM earlier this year signed an agreement with the government for the terminal, which they will manage and operate for 30 years.

ENERGY-

Green fuel pilot this month: A ship will be supplied with green methanol at East Port Said port on 16 August for the first time, head of the Suez Canal Economic Zone, Walid Gamal El Din, said last week.

Is the ‘everything rally’ back?

Boomtime: Traders are celebrating increasing signs that the Federal Reserve is managing to bring inflation in line without crushing the US economy by buying everything from small caps to meme stocks, Bloomberg reports . “We are now at a stage where people feel obligated to fully commit capital. Hawkish Fed is not an excuse right now, and claiming recession is hard to justify as well,” one strategist told the newswire.

Behind the bullishness: Retreating inflation is fuelling expectations that the Federal Reserve will soon call time on its tightening cycle, which so far hasn’t resulted in the US economy falling into recession. Hiring, consumer confidence, and growth have all remained strong, defying fears that the highest interest rates in more than 20 years could provoke a so-called hard landing.

Not everyone is optimistic: Northwestern Mutual Wealth Management Chief Investment Officer Brent Schutte still believes that the US economy could be headed towards a recession. “I’m pushing in the opposite direction. The equity market will have some difficult months ahead,” he said.

EGX30	17,339	-0.3% (YTD: +18.8%)
USD (CBE)	Buy 30.84	Sell 30.96
USD at CIB	Buy 30.85	Sell 30.95
Interest rates CBE	18.25% deposit	19.25% lending
Tadawul	11,848	-0.5% (YTD: +13.1%)
AD X	9,761	0.0% (YTD: -4.4%)
DFM	4,037	+0.2% (YTD: +21.0%)
S&P 500	4,582	+1.0% (YTD: +19.3%)
FTSE 100	7,694	0.0% (YTD: +3.3%)
Euro Stoxx 50	4,467	+0.4% (YTD: +17.7%)
Brent crude	USD 84.99	+0.9%
Natural gas (Nymex)	USD 2.64	+1.7%
Gold	USD 1,999.90	+0.7%
BTC	USD 29,365	+0.1% (YTD: +77.7%)

THE CLOSING BELL-

The EGX30 fell 0.3% at Thursday’s close on turnover of EGP 2.39 bn (24.9% above the trailing 90-day average). Local investors were net buyers. The index is up 18.8% YTD.

In the green: ADIB (+1.4%), Qalaa Holdings (+1.3%) and Ibnsina Pharma (+0.9%).

In the red: Cleopatra Hospitals (-3.1%), Elsewedy Electric (-2.6%) and Ezz Steel (-2.5%).

Egyptian president calls on Russia to restore Black Sea grain pact.

President Abdel Fattah El Sisi urged Russian President Vladimir Putin to renew the Black Sea grain pact on Fridayduring a plenary session at the Russia-Africa Summit in St. Petersburg, according to an Ittihadiya readout. “I look forward to reaching a consensual solution with regard to the grain [pact] that would take into consideration the demands and interests of all parties and curb rising grain prices,” El Sisi said.

ICYMI-Russia earlier this month pulled out of the grain export pact with Ukraine. Brokered by Turkey and the UN in July 2022, the agreement had enabled Ukraine to resume its grain exports via the Black Sea after a blockade by Russia helped provoke a global food crisis. The renewed blockade is preventing Ukraine from shipping grains to food insecure countries in Africa such as Egypt, which is among the world’s largest importers of wheat. Since exiting the deal, Moscow has bombarded Ukrainian ports, destroying thousands of tons of grain.

Moscow is trying to keep African nations on side: Putin on Thursday promised to send free grain to six African nations. Egypt was not among those countries, which included Eritrea, Burkina Faso, Central African Republic, Somalia, Mali and Zimbabwe.

Russia is the latest to ban rice exports: M oscow yesterday imposed a ban on rice exports until the end of the year “to maintain stability in the domestic market," Russian news outlet Sputnik reports quoting a government statement on Telegram. The UAE has also banned rice exports and re-export for four months, including rice of Indian origin, effective on 28 July, Reuters reports citing a WAM report .

El Sisi’s speech got ink in the foreign press:Reuters | BBC | The Guardian

ALSO FROM THE SUMMIT-

Egypt and Russia have agreed to boost energy cooperation, Russian Energy Minister Nikolay Shulginov told Russian state-owned news agency Tass ahead of the summit. Shulginov said he and Oil Minister Tarek El Molla had “agreed on increasing oil supplies to Egypt and on expanding the participation of Russian oil and gas companies in new projects on production of hydrocarbons” in Egypt.

Lada to resume assembly in Egypt: Russian carmaker AvtoVAZ plans to resume the assembly of Lada cars at the Al Amal Auto assembly plant in Egypt, Sputnik qu otes CEO Maxim Sokolov as saying during the summit. Avtovaz expects Al Amal to become a transportation and logistics hub for all of Africa, Sokolov added.

Refresher: Al Amal, the local agent of Lada and BYD vehicles, suspended the assembly of the Lada Granta last year on the back of Western sanctions on Russia and has been teetering on the brink of a shutdown as a result of last year’s import restrictions.

Denmark’s turn for reproach: The Foreign Ministry on Thursday summoned Denmark’s ambassador to Cairo to condemn a recent spate of Quran burning incidents by anti-Islam protesters in the country, the ministry said Thursday. Five demonstrators set fire to the Quran outside the Egyptian embassy in Copenhagen last Tuesday in what was the third such incident in less than a week. This came two days after a similar conversation with Sweden’s chargé d'affaires in Cairo.

CALENDAR

JULY

31 July (Monday): Application deadline for the Smart Green Projects initiative.

31 July (Monday): Emigration Ministry’s Egyptians Abroad conference.

Late July: Egypt’s first Environment and Climate Investment Forum.

Late July-14 August: 2Q2023 earnings season.

AUGUST

August: Hassan Allam Utilities + Agility to open Yanmu East logistics park.

1 August (Tuesday): EGX50 retirement date.

3 August (Thursday): Central Bank of Egypt’s Monetary Policy Committee meeting.

10 August (Thursday): Shalateen Mineral Resources gold mining tender closes.

16-17 August (Wednesday-Thursday): Finance Ministry to pay out the third batch of the sixth phase of the export subsidies.

22-24 August (Tuesday-Thursday): BRICS summit, Johannesburg, South Africa.

SEPTEMBER

September: Sustainable Debt Coalition Initiative agreed at COP27 to launch.

September: IDH to open first branch in Saudi Arabia.

September: The Egypt-Germany trade and investment joint conference in Cairo.

September: JETRO’s second delegation arrives in Cairo.

9-10 September (Saturday-Sunday): G20 summit, New Delhi, India.

10-12 September (Sunday-Tuesday): The International Agricultural Exhibition for Africa and the Middle East, Sahara.

13-14 September (Wednesday-Thursday): Hydrogen Egypt Summit, Nile Ritz Carlton, Cairo.

15 September (Friday): IMF to review USD 3 bn program.

15 September (Friday): Deadline for FX bureaus to comply with new capital requirements.

17-18 September (Sunday-Monday): Arab Security Conference and Exhibition, Nile Ritz Carlton, Cairo.

17-19 September (Sunday-Tuesday): Sharm Rendezvous, Rixos Premium Seagate, Sharm ElSheikh.

18-19 September (Monday-Tuesday): Enterprise Finance Forum, St. Regis Hotel, Cairo.

19-20 September (Tuesday-Wednesday): Federal Reserve interest rate meeting.

21 September (Thursday): Central Bank of Egypt’s Monetary Policy Committee meeting.

25 September (Monday): Nasdaq deadline for Swvl Holdings Corp to increase its market value of publicly held shares to a minimum of USD 15 mn.

25-26 September (Monday-Tuesday): Egypt to host the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank’s annual board meeting, Sharm El Sheikh.

26 September (Tuesday): Prophet Muhammad’s birthday (TBC).

28 September (Thursday): National holiday in observance of Prophet Muhammad’s birthday (TBC).

28-29 September (Thursday-Friday): Medical Tourism Conference, Sharm ElSheikh.

30 September (Saturday): The start of the new academic year for Egyptian universities.

OCTOBER

October: Deadline for ins. providers to link their databases with the FRA.

2-4 October (Monday-Wednesday): Sharm Rendezvous - Ins. Market, Rixos Premium Seagate, Sharm ElSheikh.

2-5 October (Monday-Thursday): ADIPEC 2023, Abu Dhabi National Exhibition Center.

6 October (Friday): Armed Forces Day.

9 October (Monday): The Narrative PR Summit, Somabay Red Sea.

9-11 October (Monday-Wednesday): Arabs Savings and Financial Literacy Conference, Four Seasons Hotel.

13 October- 20 October (Friday-Friday): The sixth edition of El Gouna Film Festival (GFF).

Late October-14 November: 3Q2023 earnings season.

15-17 October (Sunday-Tuesday): Egypt Automotive Aftermarket Exhibition, Cairo International Convention Center.

26 October (Thursday): Daylight saving time ends.

29-31 October (Sunday-Tuesday): Egypt Energy, Egypt International Exhibition Center.

29 October - 2 November (Sunday- Thursday): Cairo Water Week.

30-31 October (Monday-Tuesday): Intelligent Cities Exhibition and Conference, Dusit Thani LakeView, Cairo.

30-31 October (Monday-Tuesday): Global Business School Network (GBSN), American University of Cairo.

31 October - 1 November (Tuesday-Wednesday): Federal Reserve interest rate meeting.

NOVEMBER

2 November (Thursday): Central Bank of Egypt’s Monetary Policy Committee meeting.

9-15 November (Thursday-Wednesday): Intra-African Trade Fair, Cairo.

14-15 November (Tuesday-Wednesday): Destination Africa, Royal Maxim Palace Kempinski Hotel.

15-24 November (Wednesday-Friday): Cairo International Film Festival, Cairo.

19-22 November (Sunday-Wednesday): Cairo ICT, Egypt International Exhibition Center.

23 November (Thursday): Worldview Education Fair, Cairo. (Register here)

30 November-12 December (Thursday-Tuesday): COP28, Dubai.

DECEMBER

10-11 December (Sunday-Monday): eGlobe Expo, St. Regis Almasa Hotel, Cairo.

12-13 December (Tuesday-Wednesday): Federal Reserve interest rate meeting.

12-14 December (Tuesday-Thursday): Food Africa Expo, Egypt International Exhibition Center.

21 December (Thursday): Central Bank of Egypt’s Monetary Policy Committee meeting.

EVENTS WITH NO SET DATE

2023: The inauguration of the Grand Egyptian Museum.

Summer 2023: EGX to launch a shariah-compliant index.

1H 2023: GAFI roadshow set to launch to drum up foreign investment for golden licenses

1H 2023: Abu Dhabi Islamic Bank intends to launch a digital consumer finance company

2H 2023: Egyptian government expected to sign agreements with a consultant for the EuroAfrica electricity interconnector.

2H 2023: President Abdel Fattah El Sisi and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan expected to hold a summit.

3Q 2023: E-Finance to launch in Saudi Arabia.

4Q 2023: EGX to launch its new futures exchange.

End of 2023: A Developments’ first phase of the Lazoghly development completed.

2024: Standard Chartered Bank to open a branch in Egypt.

November 2024: Egypt to host the 12th session of the World Urban Forum (WUF12).

2Q 2025: Safaga Terminal 2 to initiate operations.

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