Traders seeEM currency volatility tapering off in the three months ahead: Options traders have dialed down their expectations for the volatility of emerging market currencies to their lowest levels since the war in Ukraine broke out, Bloomberg reports. The JPMorgan Emerging Market Volatility Index, an estimate of foreign-exchange swings for the three months to come, dropped on Friday to 8.86% — its lowest since October 2021 and the first time it has closed below 9% since the war began.

That’s because global monetary tightening is expected to peak: The drop is underpinned by expectations that the USD will continue to decline this year as the US Federal Reserve hits pause on its interest rate hikes and developing nations follow suit. “The probability of larger-than-expected rate hikes . . . is dramatically lower. And this lower rates volatility is mapping into currency markets,” says Simon Harvey, head of FX analysis at Monex Europe.

MENA state firms on a buying spree: State-run Gulf entities have been linked to almost USD 20 bn worth of potential acquisitions in plastics, metals, and more in the past 24 hours alone, Bloomberg reports, as oil-rich nations embark on a global buying spree to help diversify their economies:

  • Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (Adnoc) is considering its biggest foreign acquisition, a bid for German chemicals maker Covestro that values the company at almost EUR 11 bn;
  • Saudi Arabia’s sovereign fund PIF could buy a c. USD 2.5 bn stake (10%) in Brazilian miner Vale’s base metals unit;
  • The Abu Dhabi government is investing USD 739 mn in Chinese EV maker Nio;
  • Abu Dhabi sovereign wealth fund ADQ was in talks that fell through to take Wall Street’s investment bank Lazard private.

EGX30

17,922

-0.4% (YTD: +22.8%)

USD (CBE)

Buy 30.84

Sell 30.96

USD at CIB

Buy 30.85

Sell 30.95

Interest rates CBE

18.25% deposit

19.25% lending

Tadawul

11,431

+0.1% (YTD: +9.1%)

ADX

9,464

+0.1% (YTD: -7.3%)

DFM

3,774

-0.3% (YTD: +13.1%)

S&P 500

4,389

-0.5% (YTD: +14.3%)

FTSE 100

7,569

-0.3% (YTD: +1.6%)

Euro Stoxx 50

4,343

-0.4% (YTD: +14.5%)

Brent crude

USD 75.90

-0.3%

Natural gas (Nymex)

USD 2.49

-0.1%

Gold

USD 1,948.30

+0.0%

BTC

USD 28,170

+5.1% (YTD: +70.8%)

THE CLOSING BELL-

The EGX30 fell 0.4% at yesterday’s close on turnover of EGP 2.07 bn. Regional investors were net sellers. The index is up 22.8% YTD.

In the green: Credit Agricole (+5.1%), GB Corp (+4.6%) and Cleopatra Hospital (+3.4%).

In the red: Ezz Steel (-4.8%), Mopco (-4.0%) and Abu Dhabi Islamic Bank (-1.5%).

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