Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen. It’s not exactly a “Ramadan slowdown” type of news day, but it’s not exactly the absolute avalanche we’ve been seeing over the past couple of weeks. But more importantly…

We have our Eid holiday schedule confirmed: Public sector workers will be off from Thursday, 20 April until Tuesday, 25 April in observance of Sinai Liberation Day and Eid El Fitr, Cabinet said in a statement. Expect the central bank and the EGX to follow up with their own announcements in the coming days.

The EGX will be closed this coming Sunday and Monday, 16-17 April in observance of Coptic Easter and Sham El Nessim, the bourse confirmed in a news bulletin today.

THE BIG STORY TODAY

Inflation accelerated in March to a near all-time high, on the back of the weakening EGP, the FX shortage, and increased demand in the lead-up to Ramadan. Annual urban inflation hit 32.7% in March, up from 31.9% the month before, according to figures from state census bureau CAPMAS. Inflation is now at its highest since July 2017, when it was running at almost 33%.

THE BIG STORIES ABROAD-

#1- The global business press is beaming messages of hope for the global economy: The global economy may avoid a slump this year, the Financial Times reports, citing the Brookings-FT tracking index. The biannual index shows that economic conditions are close to historic averages, both in advanced economies and EMs. The US, Eurozone, China, India, and the UK are all growing faster than was predicted last year, while major emerging market economies are showing resilience thanks to improvements in policy framework and inherent dynamism. This comes despite IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva’s statement earlier this week that the global economy is likely to see its weakest growth since 1990 this year.

If anything, the recent drop in US Treasury yields may have just been a false alarm of impending recession: Two-year US Treasury yields saw a large percentage-point slide in March following the banking sector turmoil, a drop that traders took to mean a deep recession was on its way, Bloombergreports. However, the absence of similar volatility in fixed-income assets and credit is a sign that an impending recession might just be a figment of bearish speculators’ imaginations. “Each day that there isn’t a banking crisis is another day indicating that the current pricing [of treasuries] doesn’t make sense, but it’s going to take a while,” Unlimited Funds CIO Bob Elliott told Bloomberg.

#2- The American-Chinese show of strength continues: A US guided missile destroyer passed through waters in the South China Sea — where China claims maritime ownership — without Beijing’s permission. China has denounced the move, stating that it is an infringement of its sovereignty and security. The move is escalating tensions between the US and China, which carried out its own large-scale military air and naval maneuvers, sealing off Taiwan by blocking sea and air traffic, following Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen's trip to the US last week. The story is getting coverage in the international press: Reuters | Bloomberg | AP.

** CATCH UP QUICK on the top stories from today’s EnterpriseAM:

• Interest rate hikes won’t affect the subsidized loan program, gov’t affirms: TheFinance Ministry will continue to offer loans at a subsidized rate of 11% to industry and agriculture players despite the recent 2% rise in interest rates.
• Yesterday at the Senate: The Senate’s Economic and Financial Affairs Committee was sent the draft socioeconomic development plan for the upcoming fiscal year 2023-2024.
• Another new CD hits the market: National Bank of Kuwait Egypt (NBK Egypt) has launched a three-year, variable-rate CD at a rate of up to 20.25% on quarterly payout.

The Enterprise Exports & FDI Forum, our latest industry-specific conference, is taking place on Monday, 15 May at Four Seasons, Nile Plaza. The Enterprise Exports & FDI Forum will give insiders and newcomers alike the chance to talk about how to develop an export-centered business and how their companies can help us build an export-led economy that makes us a magnet for foreign direct investment (FDI).

What’s the Enterprise Exports & FDI Forum? In the wake of successive floats of EGP, exports and FDI have never been more important to our economy — or our businesses. We’re gathering some of the CEOs, top execs from local companies and multinationals, investors, bankers and finance folks to speak on how businesses can adapt their strategies to be export-oriented and what we as a country can do to draw foreign investment and much-needed FX. Expect it to be heavy on lessons learned in Egypt and other global growth markets — and lots of success stories.You can learn more on our conference website here.

Some of the biggest names in business and finance are on board — are you? If you’re a C-suite exec, business owner, climate professional, DFI staff, export executive, investor or banker, please fill out the form here to signal your interest, letting us know your name, title and where you work.

WANT TO BECOME A COMMERCIAL PARTNER? Ping a note to Moustafa, our head of commercial, here.

FOR TOMORROW-

Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry will be in Athens tomorrow to meet his Greek counterpart, Nikos Dendias, to discuss regional and international matters, Dendias told Apogevmatini Weekly.

? CIRCLE YOUR CALENDAR-

This is is our last full work week of the month, before a spate of days off:

• Coptic Easter falls on Sunday, 16 April, which will be a bank holiday (but not a national holiday);
• Monday, 17 April is a public holiday for both the public and private sector to mark Sham El Nessim. Look for confirmation this week that the EGX and central bank will follow suit;
• Eid El Fitr should land on or around Friday, 21 April,and Tuesday, 25 April is Sinai Liberation Day.

PSA- We’re bringing back daylight saving time (yet again) on Friday, 28 April. You’ll be losing an hour’s sleep as clocks jump forward one hour until the final Thursday of October.

?️ TOMORROW’S WEATHER- It’s going to be a notch cooler tomorrow — and slightly cloudier — with the daytime high expected to hit 25°C, whole the nighttime low will be 12°C, our favorite weather app tells us.