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Reasons to not fear AI

1

WHAT WE’RE TRACKING TONIGHT

THIS EVENING: Gov’t says it’s keeping subsidized loans for industry, agriculture + Tensions continue to rise in Jerusalem

Good afternoon, friends. We’re still seeing telltale signs of that long-awaited Ramadan news slowdown today, with a relatively calm Sunday to start the week.

** SO, WHEN DO WE EAT? We’ll be breaking our fasts at 6:18pm CLT today. You have until 4:05am tomorrow morning to hydrate and grab a bite to eat.

THE BIG STORY TODAY

Gov’t isn’t scrapping EGP 150 subsidized loan program for industry + agriculture: The government is planning to move ahead with its planned EGP 150 bn loan program for industry and agriculture players in FY 2023-2024, despite the fiscal burden it will incur, according to a Finance Ministry statement. The loans will be offered at a subsidized 11% rate, which will cost state coffers some EGP 13 bn, the statement says.

THE BIG STORY ABROAD

Israel hit multiple military targets in Syria after rockets were fired overnight towards Israeli occupied territories in Golan Heights yesterday, according to Reuters. Syrian state media reported explosions near the capital Damascus with no casualties. Of the three rockets that were fired, two fell on open ground and the third was intercepted, Israeli officials said. The story is also getting ink in Bloomberg and CNBC.


** CATCH UP QUICK on the top stories from today’s EnterpriseAM:

  • World Bank revises downward its Egypt economic growth forecast: The World Bank now expects Egypt’s economy to grow at a 4.0% clip during the fiscal year 2022-2023, according to its April MENA Economic Update.
  • Feed suppliers can now register to buy yellow corn through the EMX: The Supply Ministry is selling imported yellow corn to poultry feed factories through the Egyptian Mercantile Exchange (EMX).
  • New high-yield CDs: Emirates NBD Egypt and United Bank of Egypt have brought new, high-interest rate certificates of deposit to the market.

enterprise

*** It’s Inside Industry day —your weekly briefing of all things industrial in Egypt. Inside Industry focuses each Sunday on what it takes to turn Egypt into a manufacturing and export powerhouse, ranging from initial investment and planning to product distribution, through to land allocation to industrial processes, supply chain management, labor, automation and technology, inputs and exports, regulation and policy.

In today’s issue: We look at the different steps being taken to develop the domestic tire industry and address our outsized reliance on imports to meet local consumption.

? CIRCLE YOUR CALENDAR-

Good news for the tired souls among us: This will be our last full work week of the month.

  • Coptic Easter falls on Sunday, 16 April. It’s typically a bank holiday, but not a national holiday (though it should be);
  • Monday, 17 April is a public holiday for both the public and private sector to mark Sham El Nessim. Look for confirmation this week that the EGX and central bank will follow suit;
  • Eid El Fitr should land on or around Friday, 21 April,and Tuesday, 25 April is Sinai Liberation Day.

The caveat: Cabinet has yet to make clear what days we will observe as national holidays in the 21-25 April window. Are you planning to bridge?

PSA- We’re bringing back daylight saving time (yet again) on Friday, 28 April. You’ll be losing an hour’s sleep as clocks jump forward one hour until the final Thursday of October.

☀️ TOMORROW’S WEATHER- We’re heading into a week of changeable weather with a good chance of wind and rain in much of the country throughout the week, particularly on the North and Red Sea coasts. In the Greater Cairo Area, things are starting off hot, with the Egyptian Meteorological Authority (EMA) forecasting a daytime high of 28°C and a nighttime low of 15°C tomorrow.

We are delighted to share with you that the Enterprise Exports & FDI Forum will be taking place on Monday, 15 May at the Four Seasons Hotel at Nile Plaza.

DO YOU WANT TO ATTEND? If you’re a C-suite exec, exporter, investor, official, banker, or someone who should be part of the conversation, please TAP OR CLICK HEREto request a spot at this exclusive event.

WANT TO SHARE YOUR STORY ON STAGE? Drop a note to Patrick here and let’s talk.

WANT TO BECOME A COMMERCIAL PARTNER? Ping a note to Moustafa, our head of commercial, here.

2

FOR YOUR COMMUTE

The robots are definitely coming, but they might bring good things + What Sunday scaries tell us about staff

Unpopular opinion: The AI era will yield positive outcomes for employment — including shorter weeks, Nobel Prize Laureate and labor economist Christopher Pissarides told Bloomberg. Despite the rapid development of the technology — which raises concerns about potential “dramatic economic and political disruptions” — the labor market will adapt in time to these changes.

Productivity will rise: The uptake of AI could account for a 7% increase in annual global GDP, a Goldman Sachs report has found. Artificial intelligence can replace humans for the “boring things,” allowing people to take care of more compelling tasks, the London School of Economics professor said. This shift can create room for more leisure and many jobs “could move to a four-day week easily” — a welcome development that is backed by research suggesting that shorter working hours are better for mental health.

But there are risks: Despite his optimism, Pissarides has some worries. Although he does not believe that AI coming for our jobs is a necessarily detrimental thing, his focus is more security-oriented with the Nobel laureate citing surveillance and privacy violation as areas of concern.


Social media colloquialisms are revealing truths about the workplace, according to an article published in the Financial Times last week.The covid-19 pandemic, ensuing lockdown, and the drastic changes they have incurred on the way we work, have also changed the way we speak about work. And researchers concur: 65% of employees responded that the epidemic had caused them to reconsider the importance of work in their lives, the article states.

It’s a little bit funny: “Rage applying” is the tendency to submit one’s application to companies en masse as dissatisfaction with work grows. “Sunday scaries” — coined as early as 2009 — is an expression commonly used to describe the dread people experience as the weekend comes to a close and Monday looms ahead.

But also pretty serious: Tongue-in-cheek idioms aside, “the Great Resignation” — an expression invented by academic Anthony Klotz — refers to very palpable realities: Over 50 mn workers in the US alone left their occupations in 2022, the largest figure in more than two decades, the newswire reports. “Quiet quitting” is a term that is generally understood as doing the bare minimum at work, just enough to get by. Some, however, see it as a strict abidance to job descriptions and a refusal to extend beyond the scope of one’s work.

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A MESSAGE FROM MASHREQ

SME financing as a catalyst for economic growth and development goals

Small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) play an important role in national economies by providing employment and advancing innovation. In contrast to large organizations, SMEs are known for being more nimble and agile, which allows them to adapt to market changes more quickly. They typically also maintain lower overheads, which gives them an additional competitive advantage over their larger counterparts.

In emerging markets specifically, SMEs provide additional benefits as catalysts for social and economic development. As stated in the Future Business Journal, these types of businesses generate income and create the majority of jobs in the market, accounting for up to 70% of new employment in emerging economies. As the backbone of a healthy economy, SMEs are responsible for 60% and 75% of jobs in the manufacturing and services sectors, respectively, according to a report by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). Additionally, the OECD indicates that SMEs generate between 50% and 60% of value-added services on average in emerging economies, contributing up to a whopping 33% of GDP.

Given the substantial impact of the SME market on the economy, it is essential to support the health and sustainability of this ecosystem. However, the access to financial services for SMEs currently remains severely restricted in many developing countries, in turn curbing the growth of these economies. In the Middle East and beyond, premier financial institutions that are well positioned to provide credit solutions have a key role to play in bolstering the SME landscape and generating synergies through targeted financing campaigns.

The ripple effects of SMEs throughout the economy and alignment with wider economic goals

To support the SME segment across different sectors of the economy, private banks must take active steps to provide financial assistance programs that help organizations buttress their operating capital, including equipment finance, revolving loan facilities, and receivables finance. Academic literature illustrates how enabling SMEs’ access to no-hassle financing channels has a multi-fold positive impact with ripple effects on economic activity. A pre-pandemic report from the International Monetary Fund noted that increasing SME access to finance in the Middle East and Africa (MENA) region to an average level comparable to their counterparts in all emerging economies would raise annual growth by 1%, potentially creating up to 8 mn jobs in the Arab world by 2025.

An emphasis on SME financing from private banks, however, does not operate in a vacuum. Rather, the credit extended to SMEs triggers economic growth through the benefits that are reaped from a healthy SME ecosystem and aligns this approach with both national and international economic development objectives. In this context, the work of private banks with SMEs advances the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals, a collection of 17 goals that provide a global framework for shared peace and prosperity. Leading financial institutions’ approach to SME financing may intersect with 3 of those goals, demonstrating the interconnectedness and significance of the sector. Goal 8 outlines decent work and economic growth, both of which are triggered when SMEs create employment opportunities. SMEs also enable industry, innovation, and infrastructure – Goal 9 – by their very nature as agile components of national economies. Finally, Goal 10 focuses on reducing inequalities, which is realized when SMEs grow the incomes of their respective workforces.

As a further example of the alignment between private banks’ SME financing and national economic growth objectives, the Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) has encouraged banks to expand their financial services for SMEs and increase the proportion of the total lending that goes into that sector to reach at least 25% by end of 2023. The CBE has additionally stimulated private and public banks to establish special units that are devoted to providing SMEs with financial services. Driven by corporate sustainability strategies and a keen focus on supporting national objectives, banks must find ways to support central banks’ economic development strategies by deploying SME financing initiatives such as directing credit to businesses with sales turnover of less than EGP 50 mn and targeting manufacturing companies.

SME financing is a key pillar for our collective future

A healthy SME sector is a vital ingredient for inclusive growth and creation of jobs across regions and sectors, including for low-skilled workers. It provides opportunities for upskilling and supports employee access to healthcare and social services. A focus on SMEs has been one of Egypt’s national priorities since the launch of its Sustainable Development Strategy, Vision 2030, and is also a key element of the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals. SMEs form a key pillar of both initiatives and represent stakeholders across the economy that can accelerate the progress towards the achievement of these visions.

To spur the growth of the SME sector in Egypt, Mashreq has established loan programs for organizations operating in sectors identified as those most affected by SMEs.These include food and beverage, chemicals plastics and rubber, paper printing and packaging, pharmaceuticals and medical equipment, and electrical manufacturing.

Mashreq’s role in financing SMEs in the country has grown over time to reach EGP 1.53 bn in 2021. The positive trend continued in 2022 with the total amount reaching EGP 2.43 bn. Through various funding services, Mashreq is expanding its involvement in the Egyptian SME landscape and providing expertise in the regional debt market to help fulfill the growth objectives of SME customers.

One such example is a manufacturer based in Upper Egypt that is active in the field of electrical product manufacturing like tubes, controllers, and generators. The company was established in 2017 as a sole proprietorship with paid-in capital of EGP 2.5 mn. To capitalize on its initial success in the field, it rolled out ambitious growth plans to set up additional manufacturing capacity in Egypt. Mashreq granted the company a medium-term loan for EGP 2 mn for a tenor of 36 months, which has enabled the company to accelerate its growth plans and directly contribute to the nation’s economic development and job creation.

These examples show how concerted efforts by lenders can pave the way for small and medium-sized businesses to grow organically and sustainably. In this way, these empowered SMEs become an important catalyst for achieving economic growth and development goals. As governments and public institutions are gradually changing their regulatory policies and launching targeted initiatives to accelerate the growth of these businesses, there is no better time than now for banks to also step up their credit offerings and close the financing gap for SMEs in the region. At Mashreq, we are committed to playing our part to achieve these goals, as we believe that sustainable development is the way forward to a sustainable and socially conscious future.

This op-ed was written by Ahmed Mobarak (LinkedIn), head of Business Banking-SMEs, Mashreq Egypt.

4

ENTERPRISE RECOMMENDS

Souq El Kanto: Aesthetically pleasing, but not a particularly innovative plot

? ON THE TUBE TONIGHT-
(all times CLT)

Souq El Kanto is an age-old retelling of a love story that faces obstacles. The mosalsaltransports us to Cairo in 1929 and to Souq El Kanto, a market specializing in the sale of old unwanted items and textiles. Taha Al Qamash (Amir Karara) is the son of a popular textile merchant and a Robin Hood of sorts trying to maneuver the British occupation by making his money from bootlegging and selling counterfeit liquor to local bars, among other activities. On the other hand, Rawia (Mai Ezzeldin) is a young Greek woman who works as a seamstress for Madame Marie at an atelier. Despite owning their own hotel, they are riddled in debts racked up by her late father, and Rawia is trying her best to think up quick get rich plans to pay back their debts. The action picks up when both paths collide as love sparks between them — surprise, surprise — but run into hurdles due to religious differences, and several betrayals and brushes with the law. Souq El Kanto is available on Shahid.

Zamalek faces off with the National Bank in the Egyptian Premier League at 9:15pm today. The White Knights have only had one victory in the last five matches in the championship and have fallen back to the seventh spot in the league, with 33 points. The National Bank, meanwhile, is 16th in the league — putting it in relegation territory — with 17 points. Also kicking off at 9:15pm today:

  • Smouha v Dakhliya
  • Enppi v Arab Contractors

Today’s matches will bring back Video Assistant Referee (VAR) technology, after being absent for one round of the league due to late payments to Spanish company Mediapro, which supplies the technology in Egypt, Reuters reports.

Liverpool and Arsenal’s clash at 5:30pm in the English Premier League carries significant importance for both teams. The Reds (who are playing on home turf) have maintained a streak of volatile performance and results — since its historic 7-0 victory against Manchester United last month, the team has been on a losing streak, save for one match that ended with a tie. Meanwhile, the Gunners are looking to maintain their solid performance to widen its five-point lead over Man City.

Leeds United v Crystal Palace kicked off at 3pm today and is ongoing as we hit dispatch, with the score currently at 0-0.

Over in La Liga:

  • La Liga v Cadez (4:15pm)
  • Almeria v Valencia (6:30pm)
  • Rayo Vallecano v Atletico Madrid (9pm)

? EAT THIS TONIGHT-

Bring on the ice cream:The run of warm, sunny days is the perfect cue to partake in a post-iftar walk to the nearest Dara’s Ice Cream branch. This Ramadan, they are bringing back the baklava ice cream cake and mango honeycomb ice cream cake as indulgent Ramadan treats to share. Other favorites are the berry-infused Hadouta cake, rice pudding cake, and strawberry and cherry sherbet if you’re only interested in a personal serving. We recommend going for the Baklava ice-cream as quartered crispy baklava sheets, spread over a creamy mastic ice-cream and covered with pistachio sprinkles topped with honey sounds like an epicurean delight we cannot miss.

? OUT AND ABOUT-
(all times CLT)

A show for all ages:Goha fe Rawabet by ACT Theatre Group adapts Goha’s famous anecdotes, along with other short scenes from Egyptian folklore with enduring messages. The production kicks off today, and runs through this Tuesday, 11 April. Ticket proceeds will go towards public sector children’s hospitals. For more information, check out the event’s Facebook page, and for reservations through Ticketsmarche click here.

Expose yourself to some art and culture and walk around central Cairo: Qahrawya are organizing two separate “iftour” (iftar tour) events next month, which entail an art walking tour after sitting down for iftar together. The tours began with one in Zamalek yesterday and will continue with the second in downtown Cairo on Saturday, 22 April, starting at 5:30pm.

Looking for an Easter activity for your little ones? Join Bookly Ever Aftertomorrowin Maadi. To register for the event and for more details click here.

Catch Medhat Saleh this Wednesday, 12 April at 9:30pm at the Cairo Opera House as performs some of his hits along with Arabic favorites.

Hazem Shaheen, one of the Middle East’s best oud players,will be performing on Friday, 14 April at 9pm at Rawabet Art Space. To book tickets check out the event’s Facebook page.

Enjoy Egyptian Project’s bedazzling live performance at Skas restaurantover sohour on Friday, 14 April. For more information or to reserve click here.

Learn more about popular Egyptian folk sayings at a unique location on Saturday, 15 April at 8pm in MASQ - Maq’ad of Sultan Qaitbey. Through storytelling with Nesma Medhat, a director, author, and founder of several projects focused on reviving Egyptian folklore, you will be guided through Egyptian heritage using a unique method.

Have a laugh at BigBang’s stand-up comedy night at Room Art Space and Cafe in New Cairo on Saturday, 15 April at 8:30pm with the performance starting at 9pm. For more details about the line-up and tickets check out their Facebook event page.

Catch Irtigalia on Sunday, 16 April for a night of improvisation at Room Art Space and Cafewhere the Irtigalia performers take their direction from you, the audience. To book tickets check out their event pagefor more information.

? UNDER THE LAMPLIGHT-

Despite its length, The Night Circus by Erin Morgenstern is hard to put down. Set during the Victorian Age, the novel presents Le Cirque des Rêves (The Circus of Dreams) a traveling circus that — unlike its peers — only appears at night and has acts that offer no illusion; they defy the laws of gravity and reality. The events unfold as the two godfathers of the circus, Prospero and Mr. A H, decide to play a game — they will both train two young people as magicians and eventually have a “magical” face off to the death, but what they don’t consider is that they will fall in love. Marco and Celia, the chosen contenders, are unaware that they are each other’s opponent. As the events progress the circus performers start to question why they haven’t aged in decades, how their impossible acts are executed seamlessly, and how they are able to travel swiftly from place to place in a day. When one of the circus founders dies, acts begin to fall apart, audience members are hurt, and it is now up to Marco and Celia to keep the night circus alive. Aside from the unusual characters crafted for the circus, look for great narration describing magical illusions and tricks with intricate details which guide the reader into imagining these impossible feats.

This publication is proudly sponsored by

5

GO WITH THE FLOW

What the markets are doing on 9 April, 2023

The EGX30 fell 0.2% at today’s close on turnover of EGP 1.1 bn. International investors were net sellers. The index is up 14.2% YTD.

In the green: Egypt Kuwait Holding (+6.2%), Qalaa Holding (+4.3%) and Elsewedy Electric (+1.9%).

In the red: Credit Agricole (-3.2%), GB Auto (-3.0%) and Abu Qir Fertilizers (-2.5%).

6

INSIDE INDUSTRY

Where we stand on Egypt’s plans to localize tire manufacturing

How the private sector + AOI are working to develop Egypt’s tire manufacturing industry: Last week, we took a deep-dive into our troubled tire industry, whose problems have been exacerbated by the FX crunch and import restrictions. With Egypt’s heavy reliance on imported tires, a shortage of domestic manufacturing of tires and the recent 300% surge in tire prices impacted both consumers and businesses alike. This week, we delve into the different measures and initiatives to address the scarcity by developing the domestic tire industry. The Arab Organization for Industrialization (AOI) and several private companies are ready to step in and strengthen the tire industry by prioritizing domestic productions, industry insiders tell us.

REFRESHER- Egypt consumed around 10 mn tires in FY2022, of which only 15% (1.5 mn) tires were produced domestically, with the remainder coming from imports. At present, Pirelli and Pyramid Tires stand as the only tire manufacturers in Egypt, covering around 8.2% of domestic demand, after domestic tire manufacturer Trenco — which previously covered 30% of the internal market — shut down operations last year.

One step closer towards localizing the tires industry: The AOI inked an agreement last November with Hill International to set up a facility to manufacture tires for passenger cars, trucks, buses, tractors, and heavy equipment. It also agreed with Black Donuts and Roland Berger to work on separate feasibility studies to establish other tire factories, Black Donuts CEO Kai Hauvala told Enterprise.

CAVEAT- There’s a lot we don’t know: Figures regarding outputs and how much of domestic consumption each of these facilities will cover have not been disclosed. There were also no details provided on the timelines for these projects.

Ramping up domestic tire manufacturing would help our trade balance: These projects are a stride towards opening new export markets, which will “positively reflect on the provision of foreign currency and the promotion of the Egyptian economy,” AOI head Mokhtar Abdel Latif said. They also demonstrate progress towards expanding Egypt’s exports and reducing dependency on imports, he said, and would also help narrow our current account deficit by reducing imports, which recently narrowed by 20% to USD 3.2 bn in 1Q2022-23.

… And help us part ways with logistics costs: Replacing imported tires with homegrown ones would eliminate high logistical costs involved by transitioning to domestic logistics, canceling out impacts of supply chain breakdowns, Black Donut’s sales representative, Ahmed Abou El Nasr told us.

Deepening the tire industry has been on the government’s radar for while: The feasibilitystudies prepared fall in line with the joint vision between the Public Enterprises Ministry, Military Production Ministry, and the AOI to “deepen this industry locally in accordance with international quality standards,” former Public Enterprises Minister Hisham Tawfik previously said.

And localizing manufacturing to reduce our reliance on imports — and boost exports — is a major policy priority:In light of global market conditions and the war in Ukraine, import substitution and growing domestic manufacturing are now at the forefront of the Madbouly government's priority list. The government has as an objective to boost exports to reach USD 100 bn by the middle of the decade to slash the country’s trade deficit and reduce consumers’ vulnerability to import prices.

The move to deepen the domestic tire industry comes as the government works to launch the Automotive Industry Development Program (AIDP), which through certain incentives strives to localize production in the automotive industry as a whole. The program — which has been years in the making — aims to boost the country’s existing assembly and manufacturing capabilities while also drawing in new avenues for investment. The localization of the automotive industry includes the manufacturing of automotive components such as tires.

The good news: Egypt has the potential. Egypt is definitely a potential tire-manufacturing hub, due to the numerous cost advantages it holds, Hauvala told Enterprise. Cost-wise, reasonably low labor and land costs make it a very attractive location for foreign investment. The growing population also makes the market increasingly appealing for investments — in an automobile-dependent country, the demand for tires grows in proportion to the growing population, he added. These factors make Egypt an interesting prospective market for investment, and there are currently a handful of serious private sector players eyeing the industry, he said, without disclosing the names of these companies.

There’s still room for more companies to get involved, but there are hurdles in the Egyptian market that are holding back investments, Abou El Nasr told us. The lack of know-how in the Egyptian industry and the high cost of capital investment stand as significant barriers to entry for players eyeing the market, Nasr stated. The lack of raw materials available domestically increases our dependence on imported components, which when coupled with the USD crunch makes tire production extremely costly, he added.


APRIL

9-11 April (Sunday-Tuesday): ACT Theatre Group performs Goha fe Rawabet at 9pm, Rawabet Art Space.

10 April (Monday): Bookly Ever After kids’ event.

12 April (Wednesday): Medhat Saleh concert at 9:30pm, the Cairo Opera House.

14 April (Friday): Hazem Shaheen concert at 9pm, Rawabet Art Space.

14 April (Friday): Egyptian Project live performance at 9pm, Skas Restaurant, El Obour.

15 April (Saturday): Nesma Medhat folk storytelling performance at 8pm, Maq’ad of Sultan Qaitbey.

15 April (Saturday): BigBang stand-up comedy night at 8:30pm, Room Art Space and Café.

16 April (Sunday): Coptic Easter.

16 April (Sunday): Irtigalia improv performance at 9pm, Room Art Space and Café.

17 April (Monday): Sham El Nessim.

21-26 April (Friday-Wednesday): LaLiga Egypt Football Camp, Xanadu Hotel, Makadi Bay, Hurghada.

22 April (Saturday): Eid El Fitr (TBC).

22 April (Saturday): Iftour iftar and Downtown tour 5:30pm, Downtown Cairo.

25 April (Tuesday): Sinai Liberation Day.

27 April (Thursday): National holiday in observance of Sinai Liberation Day (TBC).

MAY

1 May (Monday): Labor Day.

1 May (Monday): Backstreet Boys at 7pm, ZED East, New Cairo.

4 May (Thursday): National holiday in observance of Labor Day (TBC).

12-15 May (Friday-Monday): Egypt Fashion Week.

JUNE

10 June (Saturday): Thanaweya Amma examinations begin.

28 June-2 July (Wednesday-Sunday): Eid El Adha (TBC).

30 June (Friday): June 30 Revolution Day.

JULY

18 July (Tuesday): Islamic New Year.

20 July (Thursday): National holiday in observance of Islamic New Year (TBC).

23 July (Sunday): Revolution Day.

27 July (Thursday): National holiday in observance of Revolution Day.

SEPTEMBER

26 September (Tuesday): Prophet Muhammad’s birthday (TBC).

28 September (Thursday): National holiday in observance of Prophet Muhammad’s birthday (TBC).

OCTOBER

6 October (Friday): Armed Forces Day.13 October- 20 October (Friday-Friday): The sixth edition of El Gouna Film Festival (GFF).

EVENTS WITH NO SET DATE

2023: The inauguration of the Grand Egyptian Museum.

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