Good afternoon, ladies and gents, and a very happy THURSDAY to us all. It’s a busy end to the week here at home, where the news cycle is being led primarily by the macro view — particularly as all eyes are on the central bank for interest rate day.
THE BIG STORY TODAY
Egypt’s current account deficit narrowed by 20.2% to USD 3.2 bn in 1Q 2022-23, according to central bank figures (pdf). The improved performance was attributed primarily to higher tourism and Suez Canal receipts, coupled with oil and non-oil exports and a jump in FDI. The balance of payments recorded an overall surplus of USD 523.5 mn during the July-September period, according to the central bank.
DRIVING THE CONVERSATION LATER TODAY- The Central Bank of Egypt’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is meeting today to review interest rates for the first time in 2023. Analysts we polled earlier this week forecast the MPC to hike rates by 100-200 bps. The median estimate in a Reuters poll is also for a 150-bps hike.
The opposing view: The MPC could decide to take a breather today and leave rates on hold to consider the “time lag effect” and allow for the 800 bps hikes it enacted in 2022 to have an impact, Faisal Islamic Brokerage’s head of research Hesham El Shebeini said in a research note. The CBE might also decide to adopt a wait-and-see approach to maintain a balance between tamping down inflation and supporting positive economic growth, El Shebeini suggests.
THE BIG STORY ABROAD
Adani losses exceed USD 100 bn: Gautam Adani’s conglomerate Adani Group has lost more than USD 100 bn in market value in just a week following allegations of fraud and stock market manipulation by short-seller Hindenburg Research. The claims ultimately led Adani Enterprises to scrap its planned secondary offering yesterday despite the share sale being fully subscribed with support from UAE investors. Concerned lenders are refusing to accept Adani Group securities as collateral for client trades, as Adani Group shares plummet on the Indian stock exchange. India’s government is also being pulled into the vortex, with Indian members of parliament questioning the close relationship between Adani’s interests and the nation’s growth plans. The Modi government is yet to make any comments about the situation, although Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Adani are believed to be close.
The news has been dominating the international business press this afternoon: Bloomberg | Financial Times | Reuters | CNBC
** CATCH UP QUICK on the top stories from today’s EnterpriseAM:
- Get ready for the details on 20 companies in the privatization pipeline: The government will next week reveal the names of at least 20 state-owned companies in which it plans to offer stake sales over the next year, Prime Minister Moustafa Madbouly said at a press conference yesterday.
- The state answers real estate players’ pleas: Real estate developers are now entitled to a 20% deadline extension on their projects, Prime Minister Moustafa Madbouly said yesterday.
- Our friends at Abu Dhabi-based Chimera Investments will acquire 20% of Egyptian super app MNT-Halan after investing USD 200 mn in the firm.
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? CIRCLE YOUR CALENDAR-
Some key news triggers this month:
- PMI: S&P Global will publish January’s PMI on Sunday, 5 February.
- Foreign reserves: The central bank will release January’s foreign reserves figures next week.
- Inflation: The CBE and Capmas will publish inflation data for January the week after next.
The House of Representatives will reconvene on Sunday, 12 February.
Check out our full calendar on the web for a comprehensive listing of upcoming news events, national holidays and news triggers.
?️ TOMORROW’S WEATHER- It’s staying cold (and wet in some parts): Expect daytime highs of 19°C and nighttime lows of 9°C in the capital, according to our favorite weather app and the Egyptian Meteorological Authority. Our friends in Alexandria would be wise to keep their umbrellas handy, with light to medium rainfall forecast along the North Coast and in several other parts of the country through the start of next week.





