Good morning, friends. You may want to head out the door a little earlier than usual if you want to get to the office on time, as we anticipate, in typical Cairo fashion, that the streets will be soaked after a night of heavy rain.

Due to heavy rain, schools across Cairo, Giza, and 13 other governorates are taking the day off, and tests at schools across the nation have been postponed, according to an overnight decision by the Education Ministry.

BEFORE WE DIVE IN- The roads will be quieter than usual at the start of next week and on every following Sunday of the month, as both the public and private sector — apart from a few exceptions — will be working from home to help ease the strain on energy supplies by cutting down on consumption.

We want to hear from you about what your companies have done to prepare, how the first day at home goes, what you will do differently the second time around, and how you think the month-long decision will affect your business. Drop us an email at editorial@enterprisemea.com.

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Watch this space

WAGES — It’s official: Minimum wage is rising to EGP 8k. The public sector minimum wage will rise by EGP 1k to EGP 8k starting in July, according to a Finance Ministry statement. The ministry also announced a EGP 750 monthly bonus for all public employees and additional salary bumps and bonuses for those in the healthcare and education sectors.

We knew this was coming: Government officials told EnterpriseAM about the move early last month.

How much is it costing us? The minimum wage hike will cost the state budget some EGP 100 bn, Finance Minister Ahmed Kouchouk said. A senior government official toldus last month that the public sector wage budget is expected to come in at around EGP 750 bn for the upcoming fiscal year, crossing the EGP 700 bn mark for the first time.

AVIATION — Airport passenger traffic continued to increase in March despite the war, with footfall across airports managed by the Egyptian Airport Company (ECA) rising 7.8% y-o-y to 2.2 mn, according to a cabinet statement. Traffic through these airports — which include the vast majority of large airports with the notable exception of Cairo International Airport — usually represents around half of total aviation footfall and is centered around the coastal tourism hubs of Hurghada and Sharm El Sheikh.

This follows a 15% y-o-y increase in passenger numbers to 4.6 mn in the first two months of the year amid an uptick in tourism, suggesting that the war has had an impact, albeit limited. But considering the number of flight cancellations to and from the Gulf, this suggests that tourists from all around the world were seemingly undeterred from their travel plans.

The pattern also seems to hold for Cairo International Airport, up 10.2% y-o-y to 1.7 mn passengers, according to data from OAG.

The uptick in passenger volumes was driven by a rise in capacity over the quarter, with EasyJet adding 20k additional seats and Wizzair adding 45k, Midas Aviation Partner John Grant tells EnterpriseAM. This was mirrored by a greater capacity increase from local operators, with EgyptAir adding 130k seats and NileAir adding over 70k, he added.

Looking ahead: Not turning up to a flight for a holiday you’ve already paid for — and the cost of changing flight dates post-Covid, a fact that we’re sure many of our readers have learnt the hard way — is one thing, but choosing to go to Spain or elsewhere for late winter sun over Egypt is another thing entirely. Hotel operators we previously spoke to said this is when we could see the war in the region start to impact tourism appetite for Egypt.

IPO — State-owned El Nasr Mining applied to list its shares on the EGX, according to a statement (pdf) from the bourse. The request is currently under review by the exchange before being referred to the listing committee for a final decision.

The move is the latest in a push to temporarily list 20 companies by the end of the month to prepare them for offerings as the state targets USD 3-4 bn in immediate inflows by year-end. The strategy aims to convince the IMF of sufficient divestment progress to clear the path for the final two reviews of our program.

TECHNOLOGY — The county’s first fully locally designed and produced high-speed router will soon begin production, with the company with the chosen prototype to be announced soon, Information Technology Industry Development Agency CEO Ahmed El Zaher tells EnterpriseAM. Preparations are already underway to begin manufacturing, he added.

Why this matters: The initiative under the Egypt Makes Electronics umbrella is looking to meet local market needs, reduce dependence on imports, enhance local added value, and support the country’s ambitions of becoming a regional hub for the electronics industry.

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Happening today

Will today mark the official pause of the central bank’s easing cycle? In a few hours’ time, the Central Bank of Egypt’s Monetary Policy Committee will meet to decide on interest rates as wartime pressures and an expected uptick in inflation force a major rethink of monetary policy.

A majority of analysts polled by EnterpriseAM forecast a hold, with 11 of the 14 respondents telling us that the deposit rate will remain at 19.00% and the lending rate at 20.00%. Two see a potential 100 bps hike as a preemptive move against inflation, and one remains split. Not a single respondent expects the CBE to continue its easing cycle.

IN ANTICIPATION- After sinking to fresh official lows earlier this week, the EGP rallied against the greenback yesterday, gaining almost EGP 1. Anticipation of the central bank’s policy meeting later today likely fueled the currency’s rebound. The USD ended yesterday at EGP 53.57-53.67 in state-owned banks.

Watch this space: We’ll be closely watching how the exchange rate fluctuates throughout the day and on Sunday, the first day of trading after the CBE’s Monetary Policy Committee announces its rate decision.

Data point

15.1% — that’s how much the value of engineering exports increased in the first two months of the year, coming in at USD 1.2 bn, the Engineering Export Council of Egypt said in a statement. February alone saw a 37.6% increase in their value.

But the real test for the country’s efforts will come in the months following the start of the war on Iran, with rising energy prices and supply chain disruptions adding pressure on exports.

PSA-

Lights to stay on longer during Coptic Easter: Operating hours for commercial venues will be extended from 9pm to 11pm between Friday, 10 April, and Monday, 13 April, coinciding with Coptic Easter, Prime Minister Mostafa Madbouly said during his weekly presser.

WEATHER- After a night of heavy rain, we’re in for a dry but cooler day in Cairo today, with a high of 25°C and a low of 15°C, according to our favorite weather app.

It’s also still dry and cooler in Alexandria, with a high of 21°C and a low of 11°C.

And over the weekend, expect to see sunny skies and temperatures hovering around the mid-20s in the capital and on the Mediterranean.

The big story abroad

The US is “very close” to ending the war on Iran — that’s the main takeaway from US President Donald Trump’s address early this morning. While we were expecting some grand announcement — a ceasefire agreement or a ground invasion — the speech didn’t provide any of that.

Trump shifted his tone regarding reopening the Strait of Hormuz, downplaying Washington’s role. Instead, he said, the operation should be led by countries that — unlike the US — rely heavily on the strait for oil imports, adding that the waterway will “open up naturally” after the war ends. This runs counter to Trump’s call on NATO allies to help Washington revive traffic in the waterway last month.

Trump also reiterated his timeline of continuing strikes on Iran for the next two to three weeks, threatening to target its energy infrastructure if “there’s no deal.” He also thanked US allies in the region — including Saudi Arabia and the UAE — and vowed that Washington would “not let them get hurt.”

Market reax: Oil and equities tumbled following the speech, which investors hoped would bring news of a de-escalation. Following the speech, Brent crude futures rose 5% to USD 106.42, and Asian markets opened in the red, with Japan’s Nikkei and South Korea’s Kospi looking at steep losses. Wall Street is also looking at a volatile day of trading, with futures down.

Apart from Trump’s address, space is a big theme on the front pages this morning. Elon Musk’s SpaceX has confidentially filed for an IPO, which could value the firm at above USD 1.75 tn, sources close to the matter told Bloomberg. A confidential filing allows the satellite and AI company to seek feedback from the Securities and Exchange Commission and make changes before any information goes public.

To infinity and beyond: NASA’s first crewed mission to the moon in more than 50 years tookoff yesterday. The Artemis II launched from Florida and will take four astronauts around the side of the moon — the furthest humans have ever traveled from Earth. The move signals that Washington aims to cement its leadership in space exploration amid tough competition from China.

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