Good morning, all. It’s another morning with the regional war and its impact on us at home dominating the news cycle.

In today’s issue, we look at how fertilizer players are preparing for higher gas bills; yet another downgrade to our growth forecast, this time from S&P Global; and construction player CCC Egypt snapped up 99% of AluNile.

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Watch this space

President Abdel Fattah El Sisi kicked off the Egypt Energy Show with a plea to Trump that “nobody can stop the war in our region in the Gulf but you,” adding that failure to contain the conflict could have severe global economic consequences (watch,runtime: 4:14.01). “The International Energy Agency said that this crisis may be the largest in the history of energy in the modern world,” he told the audience.

El Sisi also warned that oil prices could exceed USD 200 per barrel — a scenario he said is “not an exaggeration” if attacks on energy infrastructure continue. Disruptions to production and refining capacity could tighten global supply and push prices sharply higher.

The president also flagged risks to fertilizer exports, warning they could drive up global food prices. “Rich countries might absorb this, but countries with middle or fragile economies may see a very sharp impact on their stability.”

EDUCATION — The Education Ministry told international accreditation bodies to stop accrediting certificates and charging schools fees, according to a letter from the ministry seen by EnterpriseAM. This responsibility will now be localized and taken on solely by the ministry via a committee, a government official tells EnterpriseAM, with exam bodies directed to send test results to the ministry to be accredited.

The ministry-certified certificates will be accepted by private, public, and national universities without further accreditation from international bodies or external authentication needed, we’re told. But the outlook is far less certain for those looking to study at universities abroad, as these follow their own guidelines on accreditation and authentication, our source added, inevitably leading to parents and students alike asking if there’s still an avenue to study at respected institutions abroad.

Driving the decision is a push to curb FX outflows, with accreditation fees per certificate ranging from USD 700-950, and exam resit fees that, with other charges, can reach USD 7k-8k, a government official tells EnterpriseAM. This is also a strain on parents, with many unable to pay the fees, especially with the EGP weakening against the greenback. The new system will charge a fee of only EGP 6k.

We’re yet to fully know how the new system will work and what it means for students looking to study abroad — or if the move is a temporary fix to address regional tensions or a longer-term rethink of the education sector. We will be looking for answers to all these and more in the days ahead.

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EGP Watch

The EGP hit another fresh all-time official low yesterday, sliding nearly EGP 1 against the greenback. By the end of trading, the USD was bought for EGP 54.50 and sold for EGP 54.60 at CIB, Banque Misr, and NBE.

Interbank transaction volumes increased 4x from the previous day, coming in at USD 1.1 bn, a source in the sector tells us.

“The depreciation of the EGP primarily reflects pressure on foreign currency supply,” former Banque Misr Deputy Chair Sahar El Damaty tells EnterpriseAM, pointing to “disruptions to key inflows such as tourism, investment, and Suez Canal revenues due to geopolitical tensions, alongside a widening trade deficit and rising import costs.” Under the current supply-and-demand-driven regime, these factors are inevitably “pushing the exchange rate higher,” she added.

Fears of further regional escalation have accelerated the EGP’s depreciation, as the USD increases in value due to its safe-haven status, new investments coming into the market are deterred, and hot money outflows that total some USD 5-6 bn since late February, the banking source tells us.

But don’t expect a quick rebound, as “the EGP is likely to remain under pressure in the near term due to ongoing geopolitical tensions and weak foreign currency inflows,” El Damaty added. However, there is the “potential for gradual stabilization if regional conditions improve and foreign currency sources return.”

Happening today

Today is the final day for individuals to file their 2025 income tax returns, the Egyptian Tax Authority said in a statement yesterday. To accommodate the last-minute rush of taxpayers looking to beat the cutoff, the authority has deployed support teams nationwide to assist filers, with all tax offices remaining open until 4pm today.

PSA-

The weekly work from home orders starting Sunday won’t get in the way of your plans at the bank, with branches, call centers, and other customer service channels to “continue to operate at full capacity,” the Central Bank of Egypt said in a statement.

Port operations will also “continue 24 hours a day, seven days a week without interruption,” according to a circular (pdf) from the Transport Ministry.

WEATHER- It’s heating up in Cairo today, with a high of 27°C and a low of 19°C, according to our favorite weather app.

But it’s cloudy and a little cooler in Alexandria, with a high of 24°C and a low of 14°C.

The big story abroad

It’s another morning with the regional war dominating global headlines: US President Donald Trump told aides he is “willing to end the US military campaign against Iran even if the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed,” the Wall Street Journal reports. Trying to open up Hormuz would extend the war beyond his timeline, according to officials cited by the Wall Street Journal. This came shortly after he reiterated his threat to destroy Iran’s energy infrastructure if it does not open the strait.

Markets were quick to react to the news, with Asian markets trading higher after opening in the red, oil dipping slightly, and Wall Street likely opening up with futures in the green.

And while it’s shaping up to be a good day for equities, the damage has been done. What could’ve been a red-letter year for US equities has been overtaken by recession fears and soaring energy prices, as Wall Street wraps up its worst quarter in four years. Closer to home, emerging-market stocks also suffered — losing their 2026 gains with the US-Iran war poised to raise inflation and stall growth.

Dive deeper: The Wall Street Journal and Bloomberg have more.

A new food giant could soon enter the scene: UK-based consumer packaged goods giant Unilever is inching closer to merging its food business with US spice manufacturer McCormick, unnamed sources told the Wall Street Journal. The resulting entity would be valued at around USD 60 bn. Expect an official announcement as soon as later today.

Also receiving ink this morning: Israel’s parliament passed a law that makes execution the default sentence for Palestinians convicted of lethal terrorism. Human rights advocates have condemned the move, arguing that it contradicts the state’s longstanding freeze on capital punishment.

*** It’s Going Green day — your weekly briefing of all things green in Egypt: EnterpriseAM’s green economy vertical focuses each Tuesday on the business of renewable energy and sustainable practices in Egypt, everything from solar and wind energy through to water, waste management, sustainable building practices and how you can make your business greener, whatever the sector.

In today’s issue: We take a look at how Egypt appears to be making faster headway on the IMF’s climate-linked reform agenda under the Resilience and Sustainability Facility than on some of the Fund’s broader priorities.

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