Good morning, friends. Today’s issue dives into the impact of the regional war on Egypt’s economy, marked by a dual downgrade in growth forecasts and a weakening EGP that has now crossed the 53 mark against the greenback.

And that’s not all: IPO momentum is nearly frozen due to risk-off market sentiment, and our energy woes have taken another hit after Israel extended its state of emergency, likely depriving us of imports from its Leviathan gas field for a bit longer.

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EGP watch

The EGP slid yesterday to breach the EGP 53.50 mark against the greenback, marking its weakest ever position in the official market. By the time bank tellers shut their booths for the day, the USD was being bought for EGP 53.53 and sold for EGP 53.63 at the National Bank of Egypt, Banque Misr, and the private sector lender CIB, representing a 1.5% jump in the value of the greenback.

Our take: Calm your horses, this is only a record low for the EGP on paper. Just two years ago, before the float of the EGP in March 2024, we had seen the USD trade as high as EGP 72 on the black market. Officially a record low? Yes. But in terms of the actual value of the EGP, we’ve been in — and got through — much tougher times before.

The primary culprit behind the EGP’s slide yesterday was the exit of portfolio investments from the domestic debt market, former Industrial Development Bank Chairman Maged Fahmy tells EnterpriseAM. These flows had previously entered by converting foreign currency into EGP to invest in treasuries and other local debt instruments, but “they are now reversing, increasing demand for USD and putting downward pressure on the EGP,” Fahmy explained.

Outflows are also being fueled by a combination of external shocks, including higher global energy prices, risks to Suez Canal revenues, and disruptions to natural gas imports, which are straining Egypt’s foreign currency liquidity and reserves, Faisal Securities Head of Research Iman Marei tells us. FX shortages are also being exacerbated by reductions in hard currency revenues, including remittances, as Egyptians abroad delay sending money home in anticipation of the EGP depreciating further, according to Fahmy.

Watch this space

The country’s startups will soon be listed on a scaled, comprehensive digital database to give international investors an inside look into Egypt’s tech ecosystem, Information Technology Industry Development Agency (ITIDA) CEO Ahmed El Zaher said at the closing event for the Aswan Bootcamp Series attended by EnterpriseAM. The move follows the rollout of the upgraded EgyptInnovate platform, which serves as a centralized hub to connect startups, venture capitalists, and support entities to streamline access to capital, market intelligence, and collaboration.

The state is also looking to support startups outside of the capital, which historically receives the lion’s share of startup-bound investment. To do this, state-led support for startups will increasingly focus on areas outside Cairo, starting with Upper Egypt, according to El Zaher.

The shift is already starting to happen, with El Zaher noting the recent registration of Upper Egyptian startups and the 61 startups graduating from the Aswan Bootcamp Series state-backed accelerator program having collectively secured EGP 200 mn in funding.

TRADE — Will Aswan soon cement itself as Egypt’s export gateway to Africa? The Upper Egyptian city is looking to cluster industrial and commercial projects within dedicated logistics zones as part of a plan to position itself as a strategic gateway to the wider continent, Aswan Governor said yesterday at an event attended by EnterpriseAM. To get private players on board, the state is developing a set of incentives to encourage exports to the African Continental Freetrade Area.

On the diplomatic front

Egypt takes part in Iran talks in Islamabad: Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty met yesterday with his counterparts from Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Pakistan in Islamabad, in an effort to de-escalate the US-Israeli war on Iran. Five sources familiar with the matter told Reuters that the nations meeting in Pakistan have proposed maritime reforms to Washington to stabilize shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.

Pitching a new way to manage Hormuz: A Pakistani source told Reuters that proposals sent to Washington ahead of the meeting — including an Egyptian plan — suggested “Suez Canal-style fee structures” to help stabilize flows through the waterway. Egypt, Turkey, and Saudi Arabia are also reportedly mulling establishing a consortium to oversee oil flows through Hormuz, Pakistani sources told the newswire.

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Happening today

There’s never been a better — or worse — time for the annual Egypt EnergyShow to kick off, with the three-day event opening today amid arguably what could become the world’s most severe energy crisis.

We will be on the ground for all three days in search of announcements and to get the inside look from industry experts we speak to. If you’re attending and want a chat or for us to interview a member of your team, drop us a line at editorial@enterprisemea.com.

Open call

The Startup Factory and ADCB’s Scale Up program is accepting applications for its next cohort until 10 April. The program is looking for early-stage and growth-stage startups “with a product, early traction, or revenues, looking to grow their business and build a strong banking foundation.” Selected startups will receive zero-minimum-balance business accounts, startup-friendly banking products and digital services, access to a founder network, and more.

PSA-

WEATHER- It’s a dry and mostly sunny day in Cairo today, with a high of 24°C and a low of 13°C, according to our favorite weather app.

It’s a little cooler, but still sunny in Alexandria, with a high of 20°C and a low of 10°C.

The big story abroad

Tehran has signaled that it is ready to confront a land invasion by Washington, as 3.5k US troops arrive in the region. The Pentagon is reportedly prepping for weeks of ground operations in the Islamic Republic, which would likely be limited to targeted raids by special forces and infantry, rather than a full-scale invasion, US officials told The Washington Post.

US President Donald Trump wants to “take the oil in Iran,” and indicated a willingness to seize Iran’s key export hub of Kharg Island, he told the Financial Times. Trump said that his “preference would be to take the oil,” in a similar move to what his administration did in Venezuela.

Pakistan is positioning itself as a broker for talks, signaling its readiness to facilitate peace talks between Washington and Tehran. “Pakistan is very happy that both Iran and the US have expressed their confidence in Pakistan to facilitate their talks,” the country’s Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar said yesterday following discussions with his counterparts from Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey. We have more on the talks in the news well, above.

Houthi strikes send ripples in the oil market: The entry of Yemen’s Houthis into the fray pushed Brent up more than 3% to USD 116.43 per barrel, putting it on track to hit a record monthly gain. The global benchmark is up around 60% since the beginning of the month.

*** It’s Blackboard day: We have our weekly look at the business of education in Egypt, from pre-K through the highest reaches of higher ed.

In today’s issue: We take a look at how, despite primary education completion rates hitting 96%, only 34% of students achieve a minimum reading proficiency level by the end of the primary period.

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