Egypt is unlikely to face direct environmental damage from an abandoned Russian LNG tanker currently adrift in the Mediterranean, with dominant winds and currents set to trap any spills along the coastal areas of Libya and Tunisia, former head of supply chain and transport industries at the World Economic Forum Wolfgang Lehmacher tells EnterpriseAM. While “rough seas could ignite remaining gas or breach the visible hull gash,” it’s highly unlikely — but not impossible — that Egypt could directly be affected by a spill, he added.

Nine EU member states — led by Italy and France — warned of a “serious risk of major ecological disaster,” calling on the European Commission to take swift, collective action as the fire-damaged tanker — allegedly struck by Ukrainian drones — continues to drift through Mediterranean waters.

REMEMBER- The Arctic Metagaz was abandoned earlier this month off Libya’s coast after — according to the Russian state — it was attacked by Ukrainian naval drones that set it alight and left the vessel inoperable. The vessel is currently drifting some 50 miles off Tripoli, with a load of 450 tons of heavy fuel, 250 tons of diesel, and a substantial amount of LNG, opening up the possibility of an oil spill or the ignition of remaining fuel held onboard.

Why this matters: We might be spared this time, but that’s down to luck alone. With maritime vessels now a target in the Russia-Ukraine war, the war on Iran, and the Houthis’ actions in Bab El Mandeb — in addition to the risk of spills from accidents that happen outside of war — Egypt needs to be prepared to handle spills.

Egypt’s national oil spill contingency plan can handle tier 1 limited spills of under 100 cbm, but “tier 3 megaspills reveal gaps,” warns Lehmacher. Managing large uncontained spills requires cross-border collaboration and shared cleanup kits across North Africa with the involvement of private players, governments, and industry associations to “transform yesterday’s siloed firefighting into tomorrow’s collaborative living systems.”