Jet fuel prices have doubled in recent weeks as the closure of the Strait of Hormuz cuts a significant chunk of global supply, with Kuwait and the UAE both among the top three global exporters of jet fuel. Flight ticket prices have already started rising, but the real shock may yet to come, as some airlines are warning that jet fuel reserves at some airports could run out in a matter of weeks.

So far, jet fuel reserves in Egypt are at safe levels, government officials tell EnterpriseAM. They relayed that there are currently no issues in terms of aviation fuel shortages to us.

But how deep does that buffer really run? Industry insiders have their worries. “Egypt is not well protected in a prolonged disruption because it relies on imported oil,” warns Avaero Capital Partners Principal Managing Partner Sindy Foster in comments to EnterpriseAM. This reliance in times of stress becomes an issue because flows may not always be consistently available, which does not work well with the aviation industry’s need for “high-volume, continuous, and reliably financed supply,” she explained.

Supplies can be secured, but you can’t avoid the impact of much higher prices. “For African and Egyptian carriers, the immediate pressure from higher fuel costs is as much about network economics as it is about pricing,” Center of Aviation Head of Analysis Richard Maslen tells us. Fuel costs — which have now doubled in a matter of weeks — typically account for around 30-40% of total flight costs, we’re told.

A dip in tourist appetite for Egypt could also pressure airlines, which could make “revenue per flight [...] less predictable, and in some cases weaker,” according to Foster.

“Over time, this becomes a question of whether airlines can secure and pay for fuel at scale, in foreign currency, without eroding already thin margins,” Foster tells us. This will be especially true for smaller and low-cost operators as their model “depends on tight margins and high utilisation, so they have far less room to absorb fuel disruption or inefficiency.”

Some of this will be absorbed by higher ticket costs, with new ticket prices for Egyptian carriers up around 20-30%, the government officials tell us. Of this, 10% can be attributed to higher fuel costs, while the rest can be attributed to risk ins. and disruptions at other airlines, pushing up demand for Egyptian carriers with international routes.

Ticket prices are only one lever for airlines facing tighter margins, as there’s a limit to how much they can charge before failing to fill up seats, according to Maslen. “A prolonged jet fuel squeeze therefore feeds directly into utilization and network design — marginal routes are trimmed, frequencies adjusted, and aircraft redeployed to stronger flow,” he added. Similarly, Foster said in times like these, “airlines [prioritize] operational stability and revenue protection first” through “protecting core routes, cutting weaker services, adjusting schedules, and managing fuel use tightly to ensure the network remains deliverable.”

Shortages are understandably drawing increased attention to planned sustainable aviation fuel projects, which the government is now trying to accelerate by fast-tracking the timelines for some of the projects, another government official tells us. To feed these planned projects, a set of incentives to help make used cooking oil collection projects more financially viable and collect 1 mn tons annually is being prepared, Waste Management Regulatory Authority Chairman Yasser Abdullah tells us.

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