Good morning, friends. As we enter day 10 of the conflict, the human toll is rising fast amid relentless attacks across the region. Some 1.2k people have been killed in Iran, along with more than 300 in Lebanon, some 17 people in the GCC, and over 10 in Israel.

Today’s issue is once again dominated by the impact of the war, with the EGP slipping further against the USD after initially showing some encouraging signs of resilience, and the government moving to secure the fiscal floor by diverting the entire USD 3.5 bn windfall from the Alam El Roum development to the treasury to help bridge the FX gap.

In the energy sector, Egypt is continuing to position itself as a workaround to the closed Hormuz Strait, while local exporters are finding that European and African markets are opening up due to delayed Asian shipments as the USD 9 bn Gulf export market remains largely inaccessible.

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ENERGY — Egypt opens Red Sea oil storage to int’l players amid Hormuz closure: Egypt has offered 10 crude and petroleum storage facilities for lease in the Red Sea, a senior government official tells EnterpriseAM. Egypt aims to attract oil deliveries from Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Iraq, and Qatar, while doubling storage capacity at its Sumed- and Ras Badran-associated facilities, the source said.

The news follows Egypt offering its Sumed pipeline from Ain Sokhna to Sidi Kerir to facilitate the transfer of Saudi crude oil from the Red Sea’s Yanbu Port to the Mediterranean as a workaround to the Hormuz Strait being effectively closed due to ongoing hostilities, as well as rising ins. premiums. Egypt already has existing contracts with Saudi Arabia’s Aramco, as well as Kuwaiti and Qatari companies, for the pipeline’s operation, the source added.

Why this matters: Today is day T-minus 18 out of a 25-day countdown before GCC oil producers run out of storage space, according to analysts at JPMorgan. If the strait remains closed beyond this window, producers may have to stop output entirely because there will be nowhere left to store the oil.

EgyptAir and other airlines are gradually resuming flights in and out of the UAE, starting today with two daily flights to Dubai and another to Sharjah, followed by a daily flight starting tomorrow to Abu Dhabi, the airline said in a statement. The move follows Emirati airlines Emirates, Etihad, Flydubai, and Air Arabia restarting full or partial services in and out of the UAE.

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Happening tomorrow

The business community and policymakers will be watching closely for February’s inflation figures due out tomorrow. The country’s last reading showed annual headline urban inflation falling to 11.9% y-o-y in January, despite an uptick in the prices of food and beverages.

Analysts see inflation inching up 0.1 percentage point to a headline rate of 12.0%, according to a Reuters poll.

Setting the tone

Ignore the rumors, there’s no anbooba shortage, the Oil Ministry said in a statement responding to reports that liquefied petroleum gas cylinders are in short supply. It follows not just a host of similar announcements for other products, but even the threat of referring those accused of price gouging to a military court as the state looks to preemptively avoid price manipulations and panic buying in the local market.

Market watch

Crude surged above the USD 100 / bbl mark as the closure of the Hormuz Strait sends prices in the global energy market upwards, with Brent crude going for USD 117 / bbl in early trading. Last week alone, crude oil prices surged 30% — their biggest jump in six years.

Data point

18 — that’s Egypt’s ranking among the world’s largest economies by purchasing power parity (PPP), with a GDP of about USD 2.5 tn, behind only Saudi Arabia in the Middle East, according to a Visual Capitalist report, citing International Monetary Fund data.

SOUND SMART- PPP adjusts GDP for differences in local price levels, which often makes lower-cost economies appear larger compared to advanced economies. By contrast, nominal GDP uses market exchange rates, meaning currency depreciation can lower a country’s nominal GDP ranking even if its real production remains stable.

PSA

Attention all Jeep, Chrysler, and Dodge owners: you may need to get your airbags replaced. Ezz Elarab Automotive issued a recall for all models of the cars manufactured between 2003 and 2016 due to a manufacturing defect found in Takata airbags, the Consumer Protection Agency said in a statement. Owners are instructed to go to authorized service centers to have their airbags replaced without charge, in addition to a complimentary oil and oil filter change.

The recall is the second of its kind in a week due to several brands using the same defective Takata airbags, after Mansour Auto issued a similar recall for Opel vehicles manufactured between 2007 and 2019.

WEATHER- The sun is out in Cairo today with no clouds in sight, with a high of 21°C and a low of 11°C, according to our favorite weather app.

Partly cloudy skies are forecast for Alexandria, with a high of 21°C and a low of 12°C.

The big story abroad

Leading today’s global news cycle is the appointment of a new supreme leader in Iran. Mojtaba Khamenei — Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s son — is taking on the role after the killing of his father, according to Iranian state media. The decision was taken by a group of clerics known as the Assembly of Experts. US President Donald Trump had previously characterized the appointment of the former supreme leader’s son as “unacceptable.”

*** It’s Blackboard day: We have our weekly look at the business of education in Egypt, from pre-K through the highest reaches of higher ed.

In today’s issue: We take a look at how edtech startups are no longer just expanding to the Gulf to escape currency issues, but to grow and mature as a business.

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