Good morning, friends. The situation in Egypt remains calm as week one of the conflict in the Gulf limps to a close. We don’t know about you, but we’re really looking forward to the weekend — and we hope all of you (and all of your family and friends) are safe, wherever they are.

The big news this morning: We got a USD 2.3 bn injection from the IMF. It’s the latest disbursement under a USD 8 bn assistance program we lined up after the float of the EGP, and it couldn’t come at a better time. The EGP was stable yesterday after breaking the EGP 50 barrier against the greenback earlier in the week, and there are still zero signs that the parallel market is clawing its way back to life.

MEANWHILE- Officials are working on possible budget scenarios as the deadline for the Finance Ministry to submit to the House of Representatives its plan for 2026-2027 inches closer. And we’re putting out feelers to the IMF and other international partners to understand what assistance might be on offer from global institutions in the event the war in the Gulf stretches on.

^^ We have the rundown on all of that and more in this morning’s news well, below.

Watch this space

DEBT WATCH — Investors are getting a bit edgy as the war in the Gulf drags on, with five-year credit default swaps for Egyptian government debt inching up to 344.7 bps on 3 March, according to a report by Cbonds seen by EnterpriseAM. The 344.7 bps figure is up from 323.38 bps, the report says, making it a new three-month high. That’s modest, but we’re watching the direction here: Think of a CDS as the cost of insuring debt against a default, with an uptick signaling that investors see a rise in risk that the government might not be able to repay its debt. The yield-to-maturity on five-year debt is also ticking up slightly, signaling investors are demanding a higher risk premium there, too.

It’s not just us: With the USD near a five-week high and Brent crude trading above USD 80 / bbl, swaps on other emerging and frontier market debt are also getting a bit costlier. The UAE, Qatar, and Turkey all saw their CDS levels reach three-month highs on 3 March, according to the report.

IPO WATCH — The Sovereign Fund of Egypt is looking for an investment bank to quarterback the upcoming IPO of Misr Life Ins., according to a statement from the Investment Ministry. The news comes as Misr Life is expected to list a 20% stake; it landed a temporary listing on the EGX earlier this week. Pitches are due on Sunday and shortlisted banks will need to submit full technical and financial bids by Wednesday, 18 March.

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WAR WATCH — It seems US Assistant Secretary for Consular Affairs Mora Namdar’s call to “depart now” from Egypt isn’t official State Department policy — at least not anymore. Foggy Bottom is out with a new statement listing Egypt as the country with the lowest risk level in the region — level 2: exercise increased caution. “Egypt remains at Level 2 reflecting that our overall assessment of the security situation there has not changed at this time.”

It’s not going down well with American expats here: “The concern from family and friends was overwhelming beginning at 2am, expecting [us to give them] return flight details,” an American working for an international company told EnterpriseAM.

MEANWHILE- Is Apache pulling staff out of Egypt? Cairo is awash in rumors that Apache Corporation, a longtime fixture of Egypt’s oil and gas industry, has pulled staff out of the country. Apache comms and security staffers did not return our calls yesterday asking for comment.

FACT CHECK — The Oil Ministry has denied reports that the Russian LNG tanker that sank in the Mediterranean was bound for Egypt. Moscow has accused Ukraine of attacking the vessel and sinking it between Libya and Malta.

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Data point

USD 52.8 bn — that’s Egypt’s net foreign reserves at the end of February, increasing by USD 152 mn from January to continue a record-breaking streak that has seen reserves grow by more than USD 1.3 bn since the start of the year, according to the latest data (pdf) from the Central Bank of Egypt.

Gold holdings drove the surge, adding USD 772 mn to their value to reach USD 21.5 bn — now 41% of the total basket. SDRs rose by USD 393 mn to reach USD 556 mn, more than offsetting a USD 1 bn slip in FX, which ended the month at USD 30.7 bn.

PSA-

WEATHER- The chilly Ramadan nights are still with us in Cairo today, with a high of 22°C and a low of 11°C, according to our favorite weather app.

It’s slightly colder in Alexandria, with a high of 20°C and a low of 10°C.

And over the weekend, Cairenes and our friends on the Mediterranean should expect similar conditions.

The big story abroad

US President Donald Trump is “actively considering” his administration’s role in Iran after the war, as the Senate turned down a resolution geared toward limiting his military operations in the Islamic Republic. It is not yet clear what this role will be upon the completion of the campaign, which is going “very well,” Trump said.

The war in the region has thrown a wrench in the policymaking of central banks, which must now reckon with resurgent inflation risks and soaring crude prices. Asian economies remain especially vulnerable, as most crude shipped via the Strait of Hormuz is Asia-bound.

MEANWHILE- China has penciled in growth of 4.5-5% for 2026, a step down from last year’s 5% and its most modest growth target in more than three decades.

AND- Apple announced its most affordable laptop ever — the MacBook Neo. The lightweight device is the company’s first low-cost offering in more than a decade, with prices starting at USD 599.

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