As Operation Epic Fury enters its third day, neither the US and Israel nor Iran seem to be willing to de-escalate, with the killing of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei having done nothing to slow the pace of the conflict. While airstrikes continued to target Iran’s military and political leadership, along with other targets throughout the country, a battered Iran has proved it still has the capabilities to respond and do damage to targets in Israel and Gulf nations on the other side of the Arabian Gulf.

Where do things stand this morning? Here’s what we know as of dispatch time this morning:

  • Top Iranian military and political officials, including the defense minister and commander of the Armed Revolutionary Corps, were killed in Saturday’s strikes alongside Supreme Leader Khamenei;
  • A three-man council including Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian will run the country during a transitional period until a new supreme leader is chosen;
  • Strikes on Iran will continue “throughout the week or as long as necessary,” US President Donald Trump said, adding he “agreed to talk” to the new Iranian leadership;
  • Oman has been dragged into the conflict after its Duqm port was hit by drones;
  • Israel targeted Beirut earlier today after Hezbollah fired several missiles at Israel on Sunday.
  • A number of commercial vessels around the Strait of Hormuz were attacked yesterday, prompting ships and tankers to stay away for the time being;
  • The UK has agreed to let the US use British military bases for “defensive” strikes on Iranian missile sites;
  • European powers Germany, France, and the UK have affirmed their readiness to target Iran’s missile and drone launch capabilities;
  • Three US troops were killed and five wounded, reportedly in Kuwait, while a missile struck a bunker in Israel, killing at least nine and wounding dozens.

A pause on flights to affected areas looks set to continue with Iranian drone and missile attacks targeting airports in the Gulf, including Kuwait International Airport, Dubai International Airport, and Abu Dhabi’s Zayed International Airport, which killed a civilian. As of yesterday, over 3.4k flights have been canceled across seven Middle Eastern airports. Major regional carriers, including Emirates, Qatar Airways, and Etihad, have suspended all services, with many groundings expected to last until at least this afternoon.

Is Donald Trump looking for an off-ramp? The US president told The Atlantic “they want to talk, and I have agreed to talk,” which some commentators interpreted as a pitch.

Domestic pressure in the US could play a factor in how long the war lasts, with a Reuters / Ipsos poll yesterday finding that just one in four Americans supports US strikes on Iran. With the US in a midterm year, Trump critics — and increasingly many of the MAGA faithful — see the Trump administration’s military adventurism as a danger to the Republican Party’s electoral chances alongside growing discontent with the White House’s handling of the economy.

Yesterday evening’s news of the first US casualties will likely add pressure to bring the war to a close, with much of the Trump electoral coalition having backed the president on his repeated promises not to start any new wars overseas.

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