Good morning, friends. We bring the first full workweek of Ramadan to a close with news that the IMF approved the fifth and sixth reviews of our USD 8 bn loan program, putting a USD 2.3 bn disbursement within our eyesight.

ALSO- Egypt is preparing for a major return to international debt markets with a EUR 1 bn bond issuance as early as 2Q 2026. Debt issuance plans are up, and so are growth forecasts according to the central bank, which upgraded its forecasts for the current fiscal year and the next.

The local currency is facing its first major test of the year, as the EGP slipped toward the 48 mark against the USD while geopolitical pressures increasingly coalesce in the region and Trump ratchets up the rhetoric. Meanwhile, the government is doubling down on localization, expanding tax incentives for strategic industries, and moving to push for the reduction of the required Israeli component percentage in QIZ agreements. We’ve got these stories and more in the issue for an unusually busy news day for Ramadan.

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Watch this space

The EGP continued its losing streak against the greenback over the past three days, with the USD briefly surpassing the 48 mark during early yesterday’s trading, before easing at close to EGP 47.88 for buy and EGP 47.98 for sell, according to the National Bank of Egypt. Foreign investors pulled roughly USD 1.2 bn during Monday and Tuesday alone. Meanwhile, total interbank transactions have exceeded USD 2.2 bn since the onset of the current regional crisis mid-last week, according to our sources.

Regional unrest behind the exodus: The speculation over a potential US strike on Iran triggered sharper foreign investor activity in debt markets yesterday, marking the most significant outflows so far compared to the partial exits seen in recent days, two banking sources tell EnterpriseAM.

Why it matters: Despite the current partial outflows from the secondary market for local debt instruments, the episode represents a real test of the central bank’s flexible exchange rate regime introduced in March 2024, the sources tell us. While sufficient FX liquidity remains available to accommodate foreign exits, they warned that continued uncertainty and cautious market sentiment could lead to further depreciation pressures on the EGP and additional foreign outflows from regional emerging markets.

But while a flexible exchange rate can lead to the EGP falling, it also “encourages those who left to come back quickly,” Ahly Pharos Head of Research Hany Genena tells EnterpriseAM. In addition, it also means the “central bank isn’t forced to intervene to defend a specific exchange rate,“ he added.

Norway’s renewables giant Scatec is set to double its investments in Egypt, with plans to set up a wind turbine factory and a solar-powered desalination plant, the Foreign Ministry said in a statement. This is the second time wind manufacturing has become the center of conversation, after the idea first surfaced in discussions involving China’s Sany, yet nothing official has been signed.

It’s a theme we’ve tracked before: We sat down with Hans Bruins, CEO of Ras Ghareb Wind Energy and Red Sea Wind Energy — two of Egypt’s flagship wind projects — to discuss what it really takes to build a supply chain that lasts.

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Data point

USD 5.1 bn — that’s the value of the country’s outsourcing service exports in 2025, marking a 157% jump from USD 2 bn in 2021, according to a statement from the CIT Ministry. The government aims to more than double the figure to USD 12 bn by 2029 and increase employment in the sector from 181k jobs in 2025 to 630k by 2029.

PSA-

WEATHER- The sun is out in Cairo today, but you may still need a jacket, with a high of 21°C and a low of 11°C, according to our favorite weather app.

It’s a fair few degrees cooler up north in Alexandria, with a high of 18°C and a low of 12°C.

And over the weekend, expect to see temperatures in the capital and for our friends on the Mediterranean drop a couple of degrees — but on the plus side, the sun will still be out.

The big story abroad

A single story is dominating headlines this morning: Nvidia’s latest earnings came in above analyst expectations, calming investor fears about a potential AI slowdown. The most valuable company in the world reported record revenues of USD 68.1 bn for the three-month period ending in January, up 73% y-o-y, driven by data center revenues.

Looking ahead: The company penciled in USD 78 bn in sales this quarter, excluding any income from China data centers, as the company remains unsure whether it will be able to do business in the country.

Markets reax: Nvidia shares gained 3% in after-hours trading following the news, pushing Wall Street up. “It’s clear from Nvidia’s latest numbers and [investors’] forecast that concerns about an AI slowdown simply are not showing up yet,” TECHnalysis Research’s Bob O’Donnell told Reuters.

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