Good morning, wonderful people. In today’s issue of EnterpriseAM, we bring you news that the Ramadan slowdown is starting to take hold. But while we may not have many stories in today’s issue, the ones we do have are certainly important.

Leading the issue is the launch of the Citizen Bond to tap into retail liquidity and average down borrowing costs. Also catching our attention is the Investment Ministry signalling that export subsidies moving forward will be strictly linked to KPIs.

We’re also tracking a massive USD 297 mn rail revamp that favors overhauling existing locomotives over buying new ones, a spike in EGP volatility as regional tensions provide the currency’s first major stress test of the year, and much, much more.

So, when do we eat? Maghrib prayers are at 5:49pm in the capital, and you’ll have until 5:01am tomorrow to hydrate and caffeinate ahead of fajr.

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WISH THIS MORNING’S ISSUE was a podcast? We’ve got you. Tap or click here to listen to Morning Drive, a 10-minute version of today’s issue crafted for you to enjoy with your morning coffee, while getting the kids ready for school, or while stomping around the house wondering where the [redacted] you left your [redacted] reading glasses.
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Watch this space

EXPORTS — The government is overhauling its export subsidies program, moving away from acquired-rights toward a strictly performance-based model. Investment Minister Mohamed Farid told heads of 13 export councils in a meeting last week that the state will no longer grant subsidies without “measurable and verifiable digital targets,” according to a ministry statement. The new framework — developed in coordination with Industry Minister Khaled Hashem — will link export rebates to specific key performance indicators (KPIs), such as penetrating new markets, increasing production capacity, and hitting job creation targets.

Why this matters: For years, many Egyptian exporters have relied on state rebates as a predictable component of their net income margins. Farid’s message was clear: “No incentives without targets.” This shift potentially ends the era of automatic cost reimbursement, putting immediate operational pressure on firms that have built their business models around state payouts rather than efficiency.

The move to a data-heavy, KPI-driven system is expected to favor large, organized players. Established companies with robust reporting systems will likely find it easier to provide the granular data required to prove they have met growth benchmarks. Conversely, smaller or less structured exporters may struggle to navigate the new compliance requirements, potentially leading to a consolidation in the export sector.

What’s next? The meeting will be followed by individual sessions with each export council to set sector-specific numbers and timelines. We will be watching for the official release of the new executive regulations for the export subsidy program to see exactly how these KPIs will be weighted across different industries.

INVESTMENT — The government is looking to establish a new investment fund dedicated to supporting emerging athletic talent, according to a cabinet statement. The goal is to provide sustainable financing for promising athletes, particularly in individual sports and underserved governorates.

A shift toward private-sector expertise? This came during a meeting between Investment Minister Mohamed Farid and Sports Minister Gohar Nabil that included high-level representatives from the Financial Regulatory Authority and major private-sector asset managers, including Azimut Egypt’s Ahmed Abou El Saad and Beltone’s Khalil El Bawab.

EGP watch

EGP dropped by an average of EGP 0.75 against the greenback over the last two trading days of last week to settle at EGP 47.64 per USD, driven by a jump in interbank activity and nearly USD 1.5 bn in hot money outflows, banking insiders tell EnterpriseAM. The sell-off followed escalating US-Iran tensions.

Why it matters: Geopolitical tensions play an oversized role in Egypt’s ability to attract foreign capital, which is critical to supporting the currency and sustaining growth under the wider reform program. Exchange rate stability remains a key prerequisite for bringing inflation down to lower, more sustainable levels, and the US-Iran tensions are proving to be the first real stress test of the year.

But there’s a significant silver lining that investors will be taking note of — all exit requests were met, our sources in the industry confirmed to us. The flexible exchange rate has seen the EGP operate within a healthy and acceptable volatility level that is consistent with other emerging market currencies, EG Bank board member Mohamed Abdel Aal tells EnterpriseAM.

The Finance Ministry expects a temporary uptick in yields on government debt instruments until regional political tensions ease, our sources tell us. Our sources also warned that persistent regional headwinds, despite Egypt’s ongoing economic adjustment efforts, could push up the cost of insuring Egyptian sovereign debt, adding further pressure on the recovering economy.

What’s next?The immediate focus shifts to today’s EGP 75 bn in T-bills auction. This sale will determine the tensions premium investors now demand to stay in Egyptian debt. Former Industrial Development Bank chairman Maged Fahmy sees global investors in a wait-and-see mode: a continuation of the current uncertainty would lead to steady, limited outflows, a potential war would trigger significant hot money outflows, and any announcement of negotiations would drive a recovery for the EGP.

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Data point

USD 2.9 bn — that’s how much Egypt exported to the US in 2025, according to data from the US Census Bureau.

Moving forward, all incoming goods to the US from every country will soon face a 15% blanket global tariff under a law that gives the Trump administration a 150-day window to maintain the levy without congressional approval. President Donald Trump announced the decision yesterday following the US Supreme Court ruling his previous program of tariffs illegal.

PSA-

WEATHER- We are having another chilly Ramadan day in Cairo today, with a high of 22°C and a low of 11°C, according to our favorite weather app.

It’s cooler still in Alexandria, with a high of 19°C and a low of 10°C.

The big story abroad

One story is dominating headlines this morning: US President Donald Trump announced he is raising global tariffs to 15% after the US Supreme Court ruled that his previous tariff regime was illegal. Trump initially signed an order for a 10% tariff late Friday before hiking it to “the fully allowed, and legally tested, 15% level” a day later. While his Truth Social post claimed that the 15% rate is effective immediately, the White House has yet to provide an updated timeline — the earlier 10% tariff was set to go into effect on Tuesday.

Read more on the topic: The Financial Times is out with a piece looking at what this means for the trade pacts nations signed with the US over the past year. The main takeaway? Countries are unlikely to walk away from the agreements, but there may be a delay in their entry into force until the regulatory framework is clearer.

IN MARKET NEWS- European equities are the hot thing at the moment, with global investors looking to them in an effort to reduce their US holdings. European stocks are on track for record monthly inflows, having already hit two weekly highs this month with inflows nearing USD 10 bn.

AND- Berkshire Hathaway was a net seller during Warren Buffett’s final quarter as CEO. The conglomerate shed its holdings in Amazon, Apple, and Bank of America.

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