BTC’s largest holders are stepping back in. Wallets holding more than 1k BTC — known in the crypto world as a whale — accumulated around 53k coins over the past week — their biggest buying wave since November, Bloomberg reports, citing data from research firm Glassnode. The purchases, valued at more than USD 4 bn, helped steady the market after BTC slid nearly 40% from its October peak.

The move offered temporary relief, with the currency rebounding to around USD 70k from around USD 60k before depreciating once again against the greenback, putting out any optimism that the jump was the start of a sustained rally.

The recent buying interrupted months of net selling. Since mid-December, more than 170k BTC has flowed out of large-holder wallets — and while recent buying has slowed the bleed, it has yet to reverse the broader outflow trend. “It does slow down any downfall, but we still need to see more money coming into the market,” Glassnode’s Brett Singer told the business news service.

Data from futures markets show that professional traders are cutting back on wagers that BTC will rise, signaling a more cautious mood, according to crypto research coverage by HedgeCo. The price is hovering between roughly USD 65k and the mid-USD 70k range, suggesting it is moving sideways rather than preparing for a sharp breakout.

Spot BTC ETFs are still seeing money come in despite the recent price drop, suggesting some large institutional investors are quietly hedging on a recovery over the medium term, even as short-term traders pull back. The pattern matches blockchain data showing big players buying while faster-moving investors step aside.

Still, overall demand remains muted. Many ETF investors who bought during the rally are now sitting on losses, making them less eager to weigh in. Public companies that had been accumulating BTC have also slowed their purchases as their own stock prices come under pressure.

A rotation, not a collapse

HedgeCo describes the current phase as a rotation rather than a collapse, as leveraged traders step aside while whales and institutions selectively accumulate. That dynamic has historically helped prices find a floor, but durable rallies typically require broader participation.

Macro headwinds are adding to the caution. Risk-off sentiment tied to US economic data, inflation expectations, and equity volatility continues to weigh on crypto, reinforcing BTC’s growing sensitivity to broader financial conditions.

MARKETS THIS MORNING-

Asia-Pacific markets are in the green in early trading this morning, with both Japan’s Nikkei and South Korea’s Kospi hitting record highs, thanks to the tech rally. The Nikkei is building on earlier gains triggered by Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s election victory.

EGX30

49,700

-1.3% (YTD: +18.8%)

USD (CBE)

Buy 46.78

Sell 46.92

USD (CIB)

Buy 46.80

Sell 46.90

Interest rates (CBE)

20.00% deposit

21.00% lending

Tadawul

11,168

-0.4% (YTD: +6.5%)

ADX

10,654

0.0% (YTD: +6.6%)

DFM

6,686

-1.3% (YTD: +10.6%)

S&P 500

6,941

0.0% (YTD: +1.4%)

FTSE 100

10,472

+1.1% (YTD: +5.4%)

Euro Stoxx 50

6,036

-0.2% (YTD: +4.2%)

Brent crude

USD 69.40

+0.9%

Natural gas (Nymex)

USD 3.21

+1.6%

Gold

USD 5,086

-0.3%

BTC

USD 66,875

-2.8% (YTD: -23.5%)

S&P Egypt Sovereign Bond Index

1,020

+0.1% (YTD: +2.8%)

S&P MENA Bond & Sukuk

152.63

+0.4% (YTD: +0.5%)

VIX (Volatility Index)

17.51

-1.5% (YTD: +19.0%)

THE CLOSING BELL-

The EGX30 fell 1.3% at yesterday’s close on turnover of EGP 7.6 bn (27.4% above the 90-day average). Local investors were the sole net buyers. The index is up 18.8% YTD.

In the green: Orascom Development (+4.2%), Kima (+2.4%), and Ibnsina Pharma (+2.3%).

In the red: Edita (-3.9%), Misr Cement (-2.7%), and GB Corp (-2.6%).

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