The Central Bank of Egypt will enter its Monetary Policy Committee meeting on Thursday from a position of strength. After many of the committee’s previous meetings were met with caution on the back of persistent inflation concerns, the consensus among 11 analysts and economists polled by EnterpriseAM is clear: the country is ready to continue, if not accelerate, its easing cycle.

Expect a cut of 100-200 bps. Of the analysts we surveyed, nine are calling for an immediate reduction in the overnight deposit rate. Projections range from a cautious 100 bps to a more aggressive 200 bps move, which would bring the deposit rate down from its current 21.00%.

Many of those we spoke to believe the CBE has successfully moved past the crisis management phase. EG Bank board member Mohamed Abdel Aal argues the CBE is now operating from a “position of strength,” noting that the IMF agreement and ample USD liquidity “end the era of defending the currency with high interest rates.” He expects a 150 bps cut, aligning Egypt with a global easing cycle led by the US Fed to “maintain competitiveness and ease the burden on the macroeconomy.”

Some analysts believe the disinflationary trend — if confirmed in today’s January inflation data release — and EGP stability could lead to a front-loaded cut of 200 bps. Ahly Pharos Head of Research Hany Genena expects a 200 bps cut if conditions remain stable. “God willing, we will see January inflation figures around 11.5%, and the recommended cut will be 200 bps,” he said. Former Banque Misr vice chairman Sahar Al Damati is also forecasting a 200 bps reduction, citing a “significant improvement in macro indicators” and a strengthening EGP that she believes “could reach around 45-46 per USD.”

HC Securities’ Heba Mounir points out that even with a 150-200 bps cut, Egypt’s real interest rate remains deeply positive — approaching 9% when adjusted for 12-month forward inflation. As inflation falls faster than nominal interest rates, the real return for a hedge fund or asset manager actually improves even as the CBE cuts. This gives the committee a massive window to lower rates without risking a disorderly exit of foreign portfolio investment.

Beltone Holding’s Ahmed Hafez anticipates a 100-150 bps cut but warns that timing is “always tricky” due to uncertainty around upcoming administered price adjustments for electricity and tobacco.

The lone voice for a hold was Thndrs’ Esraa Ahmed, suggesting the CBE may “prefer to study the impact of previous cuts” and the behavior of savers as high-yield certificates mature. She also pointed to seasonal Ramadan pressures and global oil volatility as reasons for caution. London-based economist Ali Metwally expects a gradual path, suggesting a total of 100 bps of cuts over the entire first quarter, rather than a large front-loaded move.

While the mood is dovish, analysts aren’t ignoring the headwinds. Economist Hany Abou El Fotouh warns of the risk of “hot money” outflows and a dip in the attractiveness of EGP deposits if rates fall too quickly. Genena also notes that his forecast assumes no sudden geopolitical shocks, “meaning no sudden tensions in Iran, no missiles fired here or there.”

With positive real interest rates now firmly in place, policy focus is shifting toward supporting growth and easing the heavy burden of government debt servicing. Analysts broadly expect cumulative rate cuts of at least 600 bps in 2026, with some projections reaching 800 bps over the medium term. Hafez sees a clear path to a 700 bps reduction this year despite near-term noise from the timing of electricity and tobacco price adjustments. Genena has similarly flagged scope for 600-800 bps of cuts, while Abou El Fotouh expects a more measured 300-400 bps reduction over the next six months to support growth without reigniting inflationary pressures.

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