Allianz Trade upgraded Egypt’s short-term country risk rating to D3 in its 2025 Country Risk Atlas (pdf), reversing a downgrade to D4 in the previous year’s report (pdf) triggered by 2024’s liquidity crunch. The move signals a “partial recovery in financing conditions” and reflects a significant stabilization in the trade credit ins. company’s measure of the immediate risk of non-payment in trade receivables.

SOUND SMART- The D component — which stayed put — represents the medium-term risk rating that evaluates the structural health of an economy over the next several years, with the lowest risk at AA and the highest at D. The numerical part is the country’s short-term risk rating, which looks at immediate threats that could cause a financial crisis or payment defaults in 6-12 months, rated from 1 as the lowest to 4 as the highest. Egypt scored a 3 for “sensitive.”

Why it matters: A more favorable D3 rating should persuade some global trade credit insurers to loosen limits on shipments to Egypt that were frozen during pre-float USD shortages. Despite the upgrade, Egypt is still marked as D in the country grade — the highest possible medium-term risk level. The new rating doesn’t compare favorably to our regional peers, with the UAE holding an AA1 rating, KSA an A2 rating, and Morocco a B1 rating.

Social and political unrest are primary concerns for investors, outweighing economic growth prospects, as “risks come before profitability,” former Industrial Development Bank chair Maged Fahmy tells EnterpriseAM. The outlined risks in the report “constitute the largest part of any investor’s decision, and I’m talking here about direct and indirect investments such as hot money,” Fahmy added.

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