The US market is no longer an option for Egyptian steel. The US Department of Commerce imposed a preliminary 29.51% countervailing duty on Egyptian rebar earlier this month, claiming that local producers benefit from unfair government subsidies. The duties come on top of the Trump administration’s decision to double duties on steel imports to 50% in June, bringing the combined tariff rate to nearly 80% and putting the price of Egyptian steel above well above the cost of US-made alternatives.

We could even see the combined rate top 100%, with a separate anti-dumping investigation potentially adding another 20-30% next May, Chamber of Metallurgical Industries Vice Chairman and El Marakby Steel Chairman Hassan El Marakby tells EnterpriseAM.

Why it matters: In 2024, Egypt was the top source of rebar imports to the US, shipping some USD 175 mn worth of steel as local producers aggressively filled the gap left by other sanction-hit markets. That volume is exactly what triggered the US regulatory backlash. For many steel producers, one of their most lucrative hard-currency corridors has just been closed, El Marakby said.

This is the first major geopolitical test for Ezz Steel since it voluntarily delisted from the EGX in March 2025. At the time, management sought flexibility to navigate global volatility. Being a private company today means Ezz doesn’t have to explain a massive Q1 export hit to retail shareholders, but it doesn’t solve the underlying problem — where does the steel go now?

What’s next? Expect an immediate freeze. No producer will ship to the US right now given the risk of duties being applied retroactively, argued El Marakby. With the US closed and the EU tightening its carbon border taxes (CBAM), the focus will likely shift either to accelerating green investments to clear European climate requirement hurdles, looking towards regional reconstruction projects in Libya and other nations, or doubling down on an already oversupplied local market.

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