IMF shrugs off regional tensions to hike Egypt growth forecasts

Good afternoon, friends. It’s a calm Monday, with the news cycle seemingly taking a breather. The showdown between Trump and the EU is still dominating global headlines, and at home, we’re taking a look at the IMF’s revised growth forecast for Egypt’s real GDP. Also today: we’re checking out Maadi’s latest climbing gym, and telling you if the new Game of Thrones spin-off show is worth your time.

AND– We’re in for a long weekend next week. Prime Minister Moustafa Madbouly declared Thursday, 29 January — instead of Sunday, 25 January — a paid holiday in observance of the 25 January Revolution and Police Day for both public and private sector workers, according to a cabinet statement.

THE BIG STORY TODAY-

📍 The International Monetary Fund has upped its GDP forecasts for the current fiscal year to 4.7%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from its October projection, according to its latest World Economic Outlook (pdf).

But what really stands out is the Fund’s 0.7 percentage point upward revision for the next fiscal year, bringing the headline rate to a forecasted 5.4%.

The IMF’s two upgrades signal a growing consensus that the government’s reform agenda is bearing fruit and that the economic fallout from regional conflicts and tensions may not be as bad as once feared.

THE BIG STORY ABROAD-

🌐 US President Donald Trump’s antics — and their consequences — are still leading the news cycle as Europe readies a package of retaliatory tariffs, potentially worth EUR 93 bn, should Trump follow through with his 10% tariff threat. France reportedly pushed for the EU to use its strongest economic counter-threat: the Anti-Coercion Instrument (ACI) — otherwise known as the “trade bazooka,” which could potentially restrict US access to EU markets.

Geopolitical tensions have pushed demand for safe-haven investments, with gold jumping 1.6% to near USD 4.7k per ounce, and silver up 3.4% — both metals hitting new highs. European and US stock futures took a hit as the USD weakened against its peers.

^^Read more on: Bloomberg and CNBC here and here.

** CATCH UP QUICK on the top stories from today’s EnterpriseAM:

• Derivatives trading is almost here. The Financial Regulatory Authority (FRA) officially licensed the EGX to operate its futures exchange, clearing the way for trading to launch as early as March. This aligns with the exchange’s latest guidance that a functional derivatives market will go live before the end of 1Q;
• The Oil Ministry is lining up an exploration push built around two international tenders, revamped pricing terms, and faster arrear payments, a senior government source tells EnterpriseAM ;
• Edita now owns HTT brands across the continent. Snackmaker Edita Food Industries has acquired the exclusive rights to the HoHos, Twinkies, and Tiger Tail (HHT) brands across an additional 45 African countries under an agreement inked with US-based Hostess Brands.

☀️ TOMORROW’S WEATHER- We’re in for another unsurprisingly cool day tomorrow, with temperatures in Cairo set to peak at just 20°C before further cooling down to 11°C, according to our favorite weather app.