Good morning, friends, and welcome to the weekend. It’s been a busy week — from a looming US visa freeze to Egypt’s CBAM reprieve and a potential Eurobond issuance. We’ve got the full rundown below.

And if you’re looking to stay cozy indoors this weekend, we’ve put together a guide to short reads you can finish in a single sitting.

🗞️ LAST WEEK IN 3 MINS-

POLICY-

Egypt is one of 75 countries facing an indefinite freeze on US immigrant visa processing starting next week. An internal State Department memo first picked up by Fox News says the Trump administration will pause the issuance of immigrant visas for dozens of nations — including Egypt, Iran, and Russia — effective Wednesday, 21 January.

ECONOMY-

#1- Annual urban inflation was unchanged at 12.3% in December, the same pace at which prices rose the month before. This came even as the price of food and beverages rose 1.5% year-on-year last month compared to 0.7% y-o-y in November.

#2- The Finance Ministry will unveil its new public debt management strategy later this month. The rollout comes after a year-long delay triggered by volatility in global debt markets. The strategy will focus on long-term structural debt reduction and helping the government diversify its financing sources in coordination with international advisors.

ENERGY-

#1- Egypt is in a high-stakes standoff with Israel over our USD 35 bn gas agreement as Cairo refuses to accept what amount to new “Israel first” clauses inserted by the Israeli government.

#2- The government inked agreements backing two integrated clean energy projects worth some USD 1.8 bn — a solar and battery storage facility led by Norway’s Scatec. Critically, that solar facility will be fed by a battery manufacturing plant here in Egypt that’s being set up by China’s Sungrow.

#3- Egyptian-regasified natural gas has started heading to Lebanon and Syria under separate agreements signed with both sides over the past few weeks. We’re delivering some 50 mcf / d of gas to each of the countries through the Arab Gas Pipeline and supplies will double during the winter months.

#4- Egypt and Libya have resumed talks for a massive increase in the scale of their electricity interconnection, aiming to take it from about 150 MW in capacity today to a 2 GW line that could help solve eastern Libya’s chronic electricity problems.

CAPITAL MARKETS-

The government might use the tax code as part of a bid to solve one of the EGX’s most long-standing issues — liquidity. A package of tax reforms currently being finalized would see the exchange introduce a tiered, performance-based tax system that rewards companies based on their actual trading volumes and freefloat size.

TAX-

The European Union looks set to give Egyptian exports an exemption from its carbon tax until the end of 2027. Two Egyptian government officials tell us the exemption from the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) will give energy-intensive manufacturers in Egypt — specifically in the iron, steel, cement, and fertilizer sectors and at a later stage electricity and green hydrogen — a crucial two-year window in which to decarbonize before facing punitive border tariffs.

DEBT WATCH-

The Finance Ministry is in advanced talks with transaction advisors to issue between USD 1.0 to USD 1.5 bn in Eurobonds as early as this month. The ministry is looking to capitalize on a sharp narrowing of risk premiums, with five-year credit default swaps on Egyptian debt falling below 270 bps — their lowest level in six years.

LOGISTICS-

The government abandoned plans to tighten import restrictions in the Port Said Freezone. Deputy Prime Minister for Industrial Development Kamel El Wazir decided to maintain the existing quota system and allow the general import of auto spare parts to continue.

INDUSTRY-

Finance Minister Ahmed Kouchouk is spearheading a comprehensive review of Egypt’s customs tariffs to accelerate industrial localization and transform Egyptian ports into “industrial and logistical hubs.” Speaking to the Federation of Egyptian Industries (FEI), Kouchouk emphasized that the restructuring is designed to ensure fair competition and encourage the expansion of the transit trade sector, according to a ministry statement.

REAL ESTATE-

Real estate developers could soon receive a 10-year tax break for launching projects in remote areas, away from the country’s current urban clusters.

AGRICULTURE-

We may be close to self-sufficient when it comes to sugar production, but manufacturers say they’re bleeding cash. As the sugarcane harvest kicks off in Upper Egypt, a sharp divide has emerged between the narrative heralding the strategic success of boosting domestic supply and the difficult financial reality facing the country’s refiners as they work overtime to ensure supply targets are met

🌍 AROUND THE WORLD IN SEVEN DAYS-

It’s been a busy week in the global press, with all eyes on the White House. US President Donald Trump is already moving to ringfence Venezuela’s oil wealth, following the abduction of the country’s president, Nicolas Maduro. Trump signed an executive order to block creditors and courts from seizing Venezuelan oil revenue held in US Treasury accounts, declaring the funds sovereign property held for diplomatic use.

ALSO- US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is facing a criminal probe over the renovation of the Fed’s headquarters in Washington. Investigators are looking into whether he lied about the scope of the renovation, the cost of which hit USD 2.5 bn this year, up from an initial estimate of USD 1.9 bn. Trump has long attacked Powell and pushed him to drive interest rates lower and has frequently complained about the renovations.

MEANWHILE- Protests in Iran intensified despite an ongoing crackdown by the police, leading to an estimated 2.6k deaths. Trump has several times said he was ready to come to the “rescue” of Iranians, prompting Iran’s speaker of parliament, Mohammad Baqer Ghalibaf, to warn the US against any interference, saying: “Let us be clear: in the case of an attack on Iran, the occupied territories [Israel] as well as all US bases and ships will be our legitimate target,” he told parliament.

IN THE BUSINESS PRESS- US-based luxury retailer Saks filed for bankruptcy, after finalizing a USD 1.75 bn financing agreement that would keep its stores open. Plus: Netflix is considering turning its takeover bid for Warner Bros into an all-cash offer, a move that would help solidify it as the stronger suitor after Paramount Skydance (along with Gulf investors and Larry Ellison) made an all-cash, USD 108.4 bn hostile takeover bid for the company.

IN TECH- Nvidia has become the poster child of a shifting AI boom, but the Financial Times asks if its USD 4.5 tn valuation rests on what some criticize as a “Ponzi scheme” of circular transactions.

PLUS- OpenAI is continuing its diversification drive, saying it will source chips from AI startup Cerebras in a USD 10 bn multi-year agreement. It earlier lined up supply from AMD and Broadcom earlier.

☀️ THE WEATHER THIS WEEKEND-

We’re in for a cool couple of days in the capital, with temperatures in Cairo are set to reach a peak of 21°C and a low of 12°C today, and more of the same expected tomorrow at 22°C and 13°C respectively, according to our favorite weather app.

🎤 HAPPENING THIS WEEKEND-

Amr Diab is coming in fresh for the new year with a concert at Al Manara Arena on Friday, 16 January. Presented by Orange, the night promises a packed setlist of the icon’s chart-topping hits. You can book your tickets now on Ticketsmarché.

90s icon Hamid El Shari is landing at CJC 610 on Friday, 16 January alongside DJ Andy Cheiko for a nostalgic night of Arabic pop and electronic grooves. You can get your tickets on Cairo Jazz Club’s website.

🎤 HAPPENING NEXT WEEKEND-

It’s the time of year to stock up on books. The Cairo International Book Fair returns to the Egypt International Exhibitions Center for its 57th year, running from Wednesday, 21 January until Tuesday, 3 February. Catch the opening night on Friday, 23 January celebrating the centennial of the iconic filmmaker Youssef Chahine with a special performance by the Philharmonic Orchestra led by maestro Nader Abbassi.

In celebration of the release of El Sett, Cairo Prints 6 is honoring Umm Kulthum in a special exhibition at Cinema Radio, running from Thursday, 22 January to Saturday, 24 January. Presented by Cairopolitan, the gallery will showcase works from over 80 local and international artists inspired by the enduring icon. For more details, you can visit Cairopolitan’s Instagram.

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