The World Bank has held its growth forecast for Egypt for FY 2025-2026 at 4.3% y-o-y and penciled 4.8% for the next fiscal year, according to its latest Global Economic Prospects report (pdf). The global lender said the economy is finally turning the corner with the easing of import and foreign currency restrictions boosting private demand.

Why it matters: The outlook signals that the bank thinks our recovery is now baked in — the international financial organization hiked its outlook for the fiscal year by 0.1 percentage points last October. The transition from a state-led to private-sector-led growth is gaining traction, it said.

Cooling inflation and easing global financial conditions are expected to finally let private consumption breathe, the bank notes. It said it also expects monetary easing and ongoing structural reforms to support a pickup in private investment.

Can we please *not* be the “MNA”?

Growth in what the World Bank apparently calls the “MNA” — Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan, and Pakistan (MNA) region — is set to strengthen to 3.6% in 2026 before accelerating to 3.9% in 2027, up from 3.1% in 2025, according to the report. This acceleration is primarily driven by oil exporters, where a planned expansion in production is expected to “outweigh the impact of lower oil prices.”

Growth in oil-importing economies is projected to edge up to 4% this year and next as headline inflation stabilizes, allowing for potential monetary policy easing that could support domestic demand.

The downside: The primary risk to the outlook is a “re-escalation of armed conflicts in the region” or an abrupt decline in global risk appetite that could trigger capital outflows from vulnerable frontier markets including (you guessed it) Egypt and Lebanon.

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