Good morning, friends, and welcome to the first full workweek of 2026. We have a pretty compact issue for you this morning after last week’s Christmas lull, leading with news (once again) from the oil and gas industry.

Israel is demanding provisions in our USD 35 bn natural gas import agreement that would give it the unilateral right to slash how much gas it sells us. As you might expect, the terms — first made public in a regulatory filing — aren’t going down well with officials here in Cairo.

Meanwhile, our fellow finance nerds will want to keep an eye on EFG Holding shares over the coming days and weeks as El Garhy family looks to accumulate another 5% of the region’s premier financial services firm. The family’s diversification drive, which has seen it rotate away from manufacturing and into financial services and real estate, could see it become one of EFH Holding’s two largest shareholders, on par with France’s Natixis.

Also making headlines this morning: We have the inside track on the government’s plan to make tax breaks for newly-listed companies contingent on the size and liquidity of their EGX free float. And a stable inflation reading for December should give the central bank even more confidence to push ahead with rate cuts this year. The bank has its first interest-rate meeting of the year on 12 February.

^^ We have all of that and more in this morning’s news well, below.

WEATHER- Cairo is in for a foggy morning and a high of 20°C today, according to our favorite weather app. After the sun sets, the capital will see a low of 10°C. We’re looking at a cooler week ahead, with daytime highs in the 17-20°C range through Saturday.

Watch this space

TREASURY — A EUR 1 bn tranche of macro-financial support from the EU will land in state coffers “during the coming days” following the completion of the fifth and sixth reviews of our USD 8 bn extended fund facility program from the IMF, Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty said Thursday in a joint presser with European Commission VP Kaja Kallas (watch, runtime: 46:50). The upcoming tranche will be the first of several scheduled to dispense the remaining USD 4 bn of a EUR 5 bn macro-financial assistance package pledged in 2024.

SPORTS

The Pharaohs have secured their spot in the Afcon semi-finals after a 3-2 victory against defending champions Côte d’Ivoire. The national team is set for a high-stakes showdown against Senegal in the semis this Wednesday.

Data point

298.5% — that’s the rate at which the country’s net foreign assets rose in the 12-month period ending November, according to data from the Central Bank of Egypt (pdf). Net foreign assets came in at USD 23.8 bn in November, primarily driven by an uptick in net foreign assets held by commercial banks, while the central bank’s holdings remained stable.

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The big story abroad

No single story has captured the attention of the global business press, but there are a handful worth noting.

US President Donald Trump is already moving to ringfence Venezuela’s oil wealth, following last week’s abduction of the country’s president, Nicolas Maduro. Trump signed an executive order to block creditors and courts from seizing Venezuelan oil revenue held in US Treasury accounts, declaring the funds sovereign property held for diplomatic use.

The news comes as US oil majors showed signs they’re not big on Venezuela, with Exxon CEO Darren Woods reportedly having told Trump that Venezuela “ is uninvestable.”

CLOSER TO HOME- Anti-government protests in Iran are growing, with clashes between civilians and security forces having left at least 65 dead and over 2.3k arrested. Demonstrations that began over a currency collapse have evolved into a nationwide demand to topple the clerical system.

What to watch for this week: Tuesday’s US inflation data could show a “false” heating up after November’s “muddy” figures. Economists expect the December Consumer Price Index to tick up to 2.7% y-o-y, primarily as a technical correction to November data that was distorted by the Federal government’s shutdown.

ALSO WORTH READING- Nvidia has become the poster child of a shifting AI boom, but the Financial Times asks if its USD 4.5 tn valuation rests on what some criticize as a “Ponzi scheme” of circular transactions.

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