Good morning, friends. We hope you all had a wonderful weekend. The new year is off to a macro-heavy start here at EnterpriseAM. We lead this morning with a report on how the Madbouly government hopes to use its divestment program to line up high-impact investment that will build both FX reserves and a more resilient economy.

We’re also looking at what to watch for on the EGP and in the banking sector in 2026. And in the latest sign that fractional ownership could be the next big thing in real estate, we have news that our friends at GRANITE are kicking the tires on a real estate fund — potentially joining a roster of names that includes Bonyan, Madine Masr, and Halan.

Watch this space

TAX — The Senate will start today two days of debate on a 10-point overhaul of the Property Tax Law, aimed at digitizing collection and addressing long-standing complaints over valuation and penalties. The proposed amendments include the launch of a unified digital declaration system and a new cap on late payment penalties to bring more properties into the formal tax base.

To account for soaring inflation, the Finance Ministry is suggesting that the annual rental value exemption threshold rise to EGP 50k, effectively shielding primary residences with a market value of up to EGP 4 mn.

A push by the Senate: Some in the Senate, the nation’s upper house of parliament, are reportedly advocating to double that threshold to EGP 100k (equivalent to an EGP 8 mn market value), a source tells EnterpriseAM, reflecting real market conditions.

What’s next: The ministry is expected to conduct a “revenue impact assessment” of the Senate’s EGP 8 mn proposal this week. Watch for whether they land on a tiered exemption or a hard cap that prioritizes the EGP 29 bn property tax collection target for next fiscal year, up from EGP 18 bn in the current budget.

CUSTOMS — The Finance Ministry has given importers a temporary six-month break on the fee charged to verify documents on incoming air shipments under the Advance Cargo Information (ACI) system. The move comes as ACI registration became mandatory for all airborne shipments starting 1 January. The move will see the verification cost decline to USD 95 from USD 175, per a cabinet statement.

Why does it matter? It’s a carrot-and-stick approach to ensure 100% compliance by mid-2026. ACI regulations require documents on each cargo to be uploaded before shipment — just like the API (or Advance Passenger Information) flag when you register to fly as a passenger. Failure to provide ACI data can result in goods being barred from entry and see them re-exported at the importer’s expense.

BACKGROUND- Egypt began applying ACI on sea freight in 2021 as it accounts for a vast majority of Egypt’s trade traffic, head of the Egyptian Customs Authority Ahmad Amawi told EnterpriseAM in an interview last month.

FINANCE — After cementing their position in the GCC, what’s next for our friends at EFG Hermes? While Iraq is on the firm’s radar, the next geographic frontier for the firm could be Morocco, where it is exploring non-banking financial services opportunities, Group CEO Karim Awad said during an interview with the Hapi Podcast (watch, runtime: 1:07:40).

Happening today

The Secretariat of the House of Representatives is officially open for business in the New Capital as it prepares to seat the incoming class of parliamentarians, according to a statement. Starting today, Secretary-General Ahmed Manaa and his team will start issuing credentials to newly elected MPs for the 2026–2031 legislative term.

Why the paperwork matters: The registration cycle marks one of the first major operational tests for the House at its new permanent home.

The logistics: The Secretariat has designed a staggered three-day onboarding window to manage the influx of both individual and party-list winners, starting with MPs from Cairo, Qalyubia, Dakahlia, and Menoufia today. The process will wrap on Tuesday.

Who’s going to be speaker? It’s still TBD, but chatter in the local press is tipping Rep. Eid Mahgoub as speaker, with Ahmed Saad Eddin and Assem El Gazar as deputy speakers.

News triggers

It’s the first week of January — here are the key news triggers to keep your eyes on this month:

  • Non-oil private sector activity to remain in the green? S&P Global will release purchasing managers’ index figures measuring non-oil private sector activity for December on Tuesday. Activity jumped back into the green in November, breaking a nine-month stretch in contraction territory.
  • The business community and policymakers will have their eyes on December’s inflation figures, which are expected to be released on 10 January. The country’s last monthly reading showed annual headline urban inflation easing to 12.3% on the back of cooling food and beverage prices.

PSA-

The Egyptian Tax Authority launched the 2025 filing season last week, marking the first practical implementation of what the authority is presenting as sweeping changes designed to repair the relationship between the state and the private sector. Beyond the standard technical support, this season will see the debut of a system aimed at rewarding voluntary compliance rather than just penalizing arrears.

FIling dates are unchanged: Individual taxpayers have until 31 March to file returns for income other than from their day jobs, while corporate taxpayers have until 30 April or within four months of their fiscal year-end.

Large and medium-sized taxpayers must now exclusively use the new core tax business system on the ETA website. Smaller taxpayers will remain on the legacy e-tax platform for now as the authority works toward a fully unified digital infrastructure.

WEATHER- It’s another chilly day in Cairo, with a high of 20°C and a low of 8°C, according to our favorite weather app.

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The Big Story Abroad

US President Donald Trump says America is going to “run” Venezuela and take control of its oil industry after his special operations troops toppled Nicolas Maduro and took him (and his wife) in chains to New York to face charges. The Venezuelan leader is now cooling his heels in a Brooklyn jail.

Right now, Trump’s emphasis seems to be on oil, not elections. He said nothing about a timeline for elections or withdrawing from the country, instead noting that, “We’re going to have our very large United States oil companies, the biggest anywhere in the world, go in, spend billions of dollars, fix the badly broken infrastructure, the oil infrastructure, and start making money for the country,”

Trump spoke at a press conference yesterday alongside his secretaries of state and defense as well as the chairman of the joint chiefs of staff. He didn’t seek Congressional approval for Maduro’s ouster.

What’s next? It’s an open question how — and for how long — Trump plans to rule Venezuela. His Maga base has in the past objected to America’s military intervention and “nationbuilding” bids in Iraq, Afghanistan, and Libya. The US leader said only that Washington will take control of Venezuela “until such time as we can do a safe, proper and judicious transition.”

Think of it as the Munro Doctrine, Episode II: Trump has been clear that he sees the Western hemisphere as an exclusive US sphere of influence.

AND IN OUR CORNER OF THE WORLD- A Maleficent visit to the border: Oscar-winning actress and former UN Special Envoy Angelina Jolie made a high-profile visit to the Egyptian side of the Rafah border crossing on Friday to highlight the stalled delivery of humanitarian aid.

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