Good morning, friends, and a very Merry Christmas to everyone celebrating this morning. We hope you’re surrounded by loved ones and are thoroughly unplugged from the news cycle.

One thing you’ll want to check in on this evening after Christmas dinner is whether the central bank cuts rates, giving businesses (and the state’s debt service bill) another 100 or 200 bps of breathing room on top of the 625 bps worth of cuts it has delivered so far this year. It’s the central bank’s final interest rate meeting of the year.

The consensus among analysts and economists remains that we can expect a 100-200bps rate cut and that the IMF’s concern that disinflation is “not yet firmly entrenched” is unlikely to deter the MPC from reducing rates. This week’s staff-level agreement on our fifth and sixth extended fund facility review is not the first time the IMF has flagged the importance of keeping inflation in check as it eases, Al Ahly Pharos’ Hany Genena told us.

The Fund doesn’t want Egypt to move too fast, but it’s not discouraging further easing, Genena said. Veteran banker Mohamed Abdel Aal and economist Hany Abou El Fotouh echoed the same thoughts when we checked in with them yesterday, with Abou El Fotouh pointing out that high interest rates are putting a damper on investment and business productivity.

Now is as good a time as ever: With USD liquidity now sitting at a “comfortable” rate, it’s a good time for the central bank to continue its easing cycle to give businesses a shot in the arm and help reduce the cost of debt service to the state budget, Abou El Fotouh said. “A rate cut now would send a message of confidence that the peak of the [FX] crisis has passed and would be a courageous step to break the stranglehold on investment and revitalize the stagnant market.”

From The Hype Dept.

Prime Minister Mostafa Madbouly’s weekly presser yesterday set off waves of speculation in certain quarters overnight after he suggested “we will bring [Egypt’s foreign debt] down to levels the country has not seen in 50 years.” Part of his government’s mandate for the coming year, he said, is to deliver an “exceptional” reduction in debt. (Watch, runtime: 1:01:32)

That sent the local press into overdrive. Was the PM foreshadowing a big land sale? Some form of debt forgiveness? A Festivus Miracle? Talk show host Mohamed Khair says his sources have told him to expect a major announcement (wait for it) “in the coming days” that will *change everything*. The PM, he says, has been working on the file in secrecy for months. And the mechanism? It’s not a land sale, Khair wrote in a Facebook post.

Everyone’s jumped on the bandwagon: Al Masry Al Youm, Masrawy, Elwatan, Vetogate, social media — and it’s a lot of hot air.

It’s a nothingburger, folks — the PM’s remarks are being taken more-than-a-bit out of context. Madbouly did, indeed, note that his government is actively working to cut the debt. The indicators are moving in the right direction, he said, and are supported by falling interest rates.

Nothing Madbouly said yesterday is a departure: He’s been talking-up for months now the need to reduce Egypt’s debt.He said last week that he was aiming to reduce the ratio of debt to GDP to 40% by the end of June, down from 44% today. And he said back in September that the plan is to get down to the “lowest levels in recent history” over the coming five years.

More importantly yesterday: The PM continued to stay the course on the EGP, noting that there will be no “devaluation” in the traditional sense (a state-mandated drop), but that the currency will continue to move based on market dynamics.

Watch this space

SUBSIDIES — No more energy price hikes? The government does not have any reforms in the pipeline that will translate into higher living costs for Egyptians, “particularly in the energy sector,” Prime Minister Moustafa Madbouly said in his weekly presser. Madbouly doubled down on previous government statements stating that October’s fuel price hike could be the last for at least a year.

But if oil prices skyrocket, all bets are off: A senior government official told us that the upcoming fiscal year’s budget — which the government is currently putting together — explicitly does not rule out further price adjustments if global oil markets threaten to widen the deficit again. Subsidies will be strictly limited to LPG cylinders and diesel, our source said.

LOGISTICS — Egypt wants to trade domestic port access for African logistics hubs. The Investment Ministry is proposing a form of land-swap to establish logistics zones in six unnamed African countries, Investment Minister Hassan El Khatib said in a statement.

How it would work: The state would secure land for logistics zones in target African markets to serve as export launchpads. In return, the partner countries (or entities) would be granted land at Egyptian ports. The ministry envisions the private sector managing these zones, though El Khatib also noted that he welcomed Mostakbal Misr helping manage the system under which the zones would operate. That would expand the authority’s mandate beyond agriculture and reclamation into cross-border trade infrastructure.

TRADE — Galvanized wire from Egypt and the UAE will now face anti-dumping duties in Morocco after the country’s Industry and Commerce Ministry imposed provisional levies, escalating a trade dispute that threatens to fragment some regional supply chains. In the decision(pdf), Rabat levied duties of up to 50.7% on Egyptian exporters, with the exception of the Egyptian Union of Wires, whose exports will face a 25.7% rate after it cooperated with investigators. The ministry cited “sustained price undercutting” that has eroded the market share of local players.

This is the second major protectionist move Rabat has taken against Cairo in the last quarter of this year, signaling that Morocco is aggressively prioritizing domestic industrial defense over regional trade pacts like the Agadir Agreement. It follows November’s final anti-dumping duties of up to 92.1% on Egyptian PVC. For Cairo, this creates a significant headwind for Investment Minister Hassan El Khatib’s export roadmap, as key manufactured goods are priced out of a primary North African market.

PPPs — The Transport Ministry is piloting a new auction model for Kom Abu Radi dry port, with a closed-envelope auction system launched by the General Authority of Land and Dry Ports for the construction and operation of the project, sources with knowledge of the matter tell EnterpriseAM. The deadline for opening technical envelopes has been set for April 2026.

This is the first practical application of the ministry’s move away from the traditional tender system — which prioritized the lowest cost of implementation — toward an auction-style model. The new mechanism is designed to secure the highest operating return for the state and the fastest execution timeline, moving away from bureaucratic structures to attract faster foreign and local direct investment, our sources tell us.

Data point

18.8 mn — the total number of tourist arrivals in Egypt this year, up nearly 20% y-o-y, Prime Minister Moustafa Madbouly said during his weekly presser. The increase in arrivals puts Egypt on track to achieve its goal of hitting 30 mn tourists per year by 2030 — and his government will be setting higher targets for 2040, Madbouly said.

PSA-

WEATHER- We have more typical winter weather in store for Cairo today, with a high of 23°C and a low of 12°C, according to our favorite weather app.

It’s a bit colder in Alexandria, with a high of 21°C and a low of 12°C.

Programming note: Our weekly My Morning Routine column is on hiatus until the week after Coptic Christmas.

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The big story abroad

It’s a quiet morning for global business as just about all Western markets take the day off and folks — bridging or not — slide into a long weekend. The NYSE, Nasdaq, LSE, Paris, and Frankfurt exchanges are all closed.

Up first: Stocks hit another high on Wall Street yesterday as investors pine for a “Santa Claus rally” — hoping to see shares advance in the seven trading days that include the last five of 2025 and the first two of next year.

We promised ourselves we’d stop writing about the bloody Epstein files, but here we are: The US Department of Justice is looking for “emergency recruits” to work through Christmas and New Year’s after officials just happened to find there are another 1 mn or more documents they need to review. The story is front-page, above-the-fold news at every major global business news outlet. Read: DOJ finds a mn more epstein files it needs to review.

Closer to home: Israel is warning it could attack Iran once again — and Canada, the UK, Germany, and 11 other nations are condemning Israel ’s plans to approve 19 more West Bank settlements.

AND- Reuters is a bit concerned about US plans to make it easier for normies to invest in private credit and crypto.

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