Good morning, wonderful people. Two big stories broke overnight:

#1- The IMF has reached a staff-level agreement with the Madbouly government on a make-or-break review of our economic reform agenda. We’re still processing the fact that the statement opens by basically saying, “Nice work, guys” — the tone shift here is pretty remarkable.

Better still, in our view: The Fund suggests that business leaders it spoke with here agree that things are moving in the right direction.

We have the full rundown in this morning’s news well, below.

ALSO MAKING HEADLINES OVERNIGHT: US Ambassador to Egypt Herro Mustafa Garg is reported to be among 30 senior diplomats recalled from their posts by the Trump Administration, the Associated Press reports, citing US State Department officials. The move affected career diplomats who were appointed during the Biden administration. The diplomats, most of them of ambassador rank, were told without further explanation that their postings would end in January and that they will retain their foreign service jobs and may return to Washington for reassignment. Politico first broke the news.

What’s happening behind the scenes: The move was described by the State Department as “a standard process in any administration,” adding that it is “the president’s right to ensure that he has individuals in these countries who advance the America First agenda.”

Saudi is poaching skilled Egyptian factory workers

LABOR — Riyadh just opened a new front in its war for talent: The decision by Saudi Arabia to waive expat fees for manufacturers — a cost that used to run up to SAR 9.6k per worker annually — is doing more than just cutting overheads for Saudi factories. It’s handing them a extra cash that can be redirected into signing bonuses and higher wages for Egyptian technicians, industry sources tell EnterpriseAM.

It’s the latest front in the intensifying economic competition between Cairo and Riyadh. Saudi had, for the past two years, largely been focused on hoovering-up white-collar workers in finance, banking, marketing, education, and other professions.

Egyptian factory owners now face the challenge of retaining top staff on top of the pressure of the higher raw material costs. With the regulatory cost of hiring foreign talent in the Kingdom effectively slashed, the math for poaching an experienced Egyptian employee is increasingly favorable for a Saudi competitor.

Egyptian manufacturers have become too reliant on low wages as a competitive edge. To survive the talent war, we’re going to have to improve working environments and compensation structures — or risk being hollowed out, Federation of Egyptian Industries board member Mohamed El Bahey told us.

But, there is a silver lining — depending on where you sit. While individual factory owners feel the pinch, the macro picture offers some relief. Easing recruitment costs for Saudi firms could boost the number of Egyptians working abroad, translating into higher remittance flows — a crucial lifeline for Egypt’s FX position, El Bahey added.

Pharaohs notch Afcon win

We’re off to a good start at the 2025 Africa Cup of Nations, with the national team securing a 2-1 victory against Zimbabwe in their opening match in Agadir yesterday. Omar Marmoush scored Egypt’s first goal of the match in the 64th minute to bring the score to 1-1 after Zimbabwe netted a goal in the first half, while Mo Salah secured the win with a second goal in added time.

Happening this week

THURSDAY — Results from the latest set of runoffs in elections for the House of Representatives are due out on 25 December. The National Elections Authority is aiming to wrap the full election cycle by 10 January 2026 ahead of the expiry of the current parliament’s term at month’s end.

Also on Thursday: The Central Bank of Egypt’s Monetary Policy Committee meets for the final time in 2025. The majority of analysts we polled expect the central bank to squeeze in one more rate cut before the year comes to an end, adding to 525 bps of rate cuts delivered throughout 2025. The majority of those we polled expect the CBE to opt for a 100 bps cut.

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Data point

USD 7.4 bn — the value of digital exports from Egypt in 2025, up over 120% in the last seven years, CIT Minister Amr Talaat said. Outsourcing is doing the heavy lifting, with exports having doubled in the last three years to contribute USD 4.8 bn to the total count in 2025.

The sector is outperforming its own hiring targets. Agreements signed in 2022 aimed to create 34k jobs over three years — the actual figure hit 60k by the end of 2024. With new agreements signed last month targeting another 75k jobs, the industry is increasingly becoming one of the state’s most reliable hard currency generators.

PSA-

WEATHER- We have more typical winter weather in store for Cairo today, with a high of 21°C and a low of 12°C, according to our favorite weather app.

There’s a chance of light rain in Alexandria, with a high of 20°C and a low of 10°C.

The big story abroad

It’s a mixed bag in the global business press as ink-stained wretches the world over long for their Christmastime news slowdown. There’s no single story dominating the front pages, but among the bits and pieces about which you should know:

Apollo Global is “building up cash, cutting leverage and selling out of risker corners of debt markets” as top execs there get ready for market turbulence. The firm’s CEO says that will put Apollo in the best position possible “when something bad happens” and leave it well-positioned to invest during turmoil he expects to come on the back of “challenging” credit and equity markets. Must read: Apollo cuts risk and stockpiles cash in preparation for market turmoil (Financial Times)

Speaking of credit markets: Tech companies around the world have taken on record debt in the race to build out AI capacity, issuing some USD 428 bn in bonds through the first week of December.

Meanwhile:

  • Washington’s pivot away from green energy continues: The Trump administration has suspended leases at all large offshore wind projects in the United States.
  • A bonkers M&A: Oracle boss Larry Ellison is pledging USD 40 bn of his own money to backstop Paramount’s USD 108 bn hostile bid for WarnerBros Discovery.
  • A pill form of Wegovy, the GLP-1 drug for weight loss, got signoff in America overnight.

*** It’s Going Green day — your weekly briefing of all things green in Egypt: EnterpriseAM’s green economy vertical focuses each Tuesday on the business of renewable energy and sustainable practices in Egypt, everything from solar and wind energy through to water, waste management, sustainable building practices and how you can make your business greener, whatever the sector.

In today’s issue: We run down the biggest themes in renewables in 2025, including the shelving of green hydrogen hype to focus on more pragmatic goals and priorities.

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