The IMF has signed off on two key reviews of our USD 8 bn assistance package — and it should be music to the business community’s ears. Critically, the tone of the IMF’s statement, released overnight and attributed to mission chief Ivanna Vladkova Hollar, is sharply different from the communiqué that accompanied the last review of the program, on which the IMF board signed-off on exactly one year ago this week.

The news: The Madbouly government and IMF staff have reached agreement on the make-or-break fifth and sixth reviews under our so-called extended fund facility (EFF). They also reached agreement on the first review under a parallel resilience and sustainability package (RSF). The staff-level agreements now need approval by the IMF’s executive board.

The result should be c. USD 3.8 bn flowing into the government’s coffers when the IMF’s executive board signs off on the reviews in January (we’re not on the calendar yet), including c. USD 2.5 bn from the fifth and sixth reviews of the EFF and another USD 1.3 bn from the first review of the RSF. That would bring total disbursements under the EFF so far to around USD 5.7 bn.

Why it matters: The IMF is significantly front-loading funding here, giving Cabinet a nice liquidity cushion at the start of 2026 and effectively telling the Economic Committee it doesn’t need to continue to sing for its supper — provided it stays the course on reforms.

The statement opens with a line that would have been unthinkable 18 months ago: “Stabilization efforts have delivered important gains and the Egyptian economy is showing signs of robust growth.” There’s no hedging, no “however” or “but” lurking in the next sentence. The IMF is saying — in plain English — that Cabinet’s strategy is working.

The hard numbers back it up: GDP growth accelerated to 4.4% in FY 2024-25, up from 2.4% the previous year, with 1Q of the current fiscal year hitting 5.3%, the statement reads. The current account deficit narrowed on the back of strong remittances, rising tourism receipts, and good non-oil export growth. Non-resident holdings of Egyptian T-bills have climbed to around USD 30 bn and FX reserves stand at USD 56.9 bn — a figure that would have seemed aspirational not long ago.

Even the criticism is gentler as the Fund flags areas that still need work. The ratio of taxes raised to GDP, Hollar says, remains “modest by international standards” at 12.2%, disinflation is “not yet firmly entrenched” (perhaps no rate cut on Thursday, after all?) state-owned banks require “continued robust governance practices,” and Cabinet needs to “accelerate” the privatization program.

The IMF is also flagging the Egyptian General Petroleum Corporation as a source of fiscal risk, but the IMF’s overall framing on Egypt has shifted. Gone are the urgent warnings, replaced by items on a to-do list for a country that’s broadly on track.

Members of the business community consulted by the Fund during its time in Cairo said nice things about Cabinet’s progress on key reforms, the IMF suggests, writing that, “private sector participants have acknowledged the results already achieved” on “trade facilitation” and tax reform. The statement also notes we’re showing signs of “fiscal discipline” (ie: no longer spending like sailors on shore leave) and makes direct reference to the “National Narrative for Economic Development,” Cabinet’s new framework to put the private sector in the driver’s seat for the economy.

The sentiment shift is the big news here

Why it matters: To appreciate how different this statement is, you need to read it alongside the Fund’s previous communiqués.

It’s no longer about a crisis — or fear of backsliding. When the IMF reached staff-level agreement on the first and second reviews in March 2024, the statement was crisis-mode prose. It led with “significant macroeconomic challenges that have become more complex to manage,” referenced “policy slippages” that needed to be corrected, and emphasized the “difficult” and “challenging” environment at every turn.

By June 2024 and the third review, the tone had softened slightly, but still came with plenty of hedges. The Fund acknowledged that “efforts are beginning to deliver an improved outlook” — but immediately pivoted to “downside risks surround the economic outlook” and called for reforms to be “accelerated.”

A year ago this week, the fourth review brought more of the same: “difficult external conditions,” “challenging domestic economic environment,” and repeated calls for “further efforts,” “further reforms,” and “more decisive efforts” on divestment and leveling the playing field.

A year later, the warnings are still there, but they’re no longer the lead. The Fund now opens with what’s working and buries the concerns deeper in the text. For a document that will be read closely by investors, rating agencies, and the diplomatic community, that structural choice matters.

What’s driving the shift? Three things stand out:

#1- Macro indicators are moving in the right direction. Growth is accelerating, inflation is coming down, the balance of payments has improved nicely despite the Suez Canal headwinds (and even there, things are showing signs of changing), and reserves are at comfortable levels. IMF staff are are responding to data, not softening their tone for diplomatic reasons.

#2- IMF staff were told that Banque du Caire is heading to IPO in 2Q 2026 under CEO Hussein Abaza, as we reported last week. Abaza is one of the private sector execs most trusted by global investors thanks from his years running the investor relations program at EGX-listed bellwether CIB, where he was most recently CEO. We think that’s helped change the IMF’s tone on privatization: The state’s economic footprint and the slow pace of asset sales have been sticking points in the relationship for years. Staff there now seem to believe the government is serious about following through.

#3- The timing. The IMF program will wrap up in December 2026. With the fifth and sixth reviews now behind us, we’re entering the final stretch — and the Fund seems confident that the finish line is in sight. This is no longer a program at risk of going off track, but one that’s delivering results.

What’s next

We still need to make it through two revies. The seventh is scheduled for March 2026 and could unlock another USD 1.25 bn and the eighth and final review is slated for November 2026, with a further USD 1.25 bn on the table.

Why November? The final review was originally scheduled for September 2026, but was pushed back at the government’s request to allow more breathing room for the final set of structural benchmarks. That suggests both sides want to land this program cleanly — and that the Fund is willing to give us the space to do so. That would have been just about unthinkable a year ago.

BACKGROUND: The extended fund facility is the IMF’s main lending instrument for countries facing medium-term balance of payments problems — it’s designed for situations requiring deeper structural reforms rather than short-term liquidity support. Our current USD 8 bn EFF was approved in December 2022 at USD 3 bn, then expanded in March 2024 after Israel’s war on Gaza and Houthi attacks on Red Sea shipping made life more complicated. The resilience and sustainability facility is a newer, parallel instrument focused specifically on climate-related reforms — it can provide up to an additional USD 1.3 bn to support decarbonization efforts and climate finance. The two programs run in tandem, with RSF reviews piggybacking on EFF milestones.

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