Gold hits a fresh high as analysts pencil-in up to USD 5k an ounce next year

Gold hit a fresh record yesterday, climbing 2.4% to around USD 4.5k per ounce as the recent escalation of the US blockade on Venezuelan oil drove the rush to so-called “safe haven” assets. Silver also touched a new high, rising 3.4% to around USD 69.44 an ounce.

It has been a breakout year for gold: Gold is up about 68% YTD — its strongest annual performance since the late 1970s — driven by trade tensions, US fiscal anxiety, and growing doubts over central-bank independence, the Financial Times writes. Investors are increasingly turning to gold, not equities, as their hedge of choice.

Central banks are doing much of the heavy lifting: JPMorgan estimates gold demand from investors and official buyers surged to around 980 tonnes in 3Q, more than 50% above recent norms, with purchases expected to remain elevated into 2026.

What the pundits are saying: JPMorgan expects prices to break USD 5k by late 2026, while Goldman Sachs is close behind, penciling in a price of USD 4.9k by December 2026, citing Fed easing and structurally strong demand, Reuters and IDNFinancials report. Morgan Stanley, on the other hand, expects it to peak at USD 4.5k by mid-2026.

Positioning suggests the trade isn’t crowded — yet: JPMorgan estimates gold accounts for about 2.8% of global investor portfolios, up from 1.5% pre-2022 but still below levels seen in prior commodity supercycles, leaving room for allocations to rise toward 4-5%.

Still, warning lights are flashing: The BIS recently flagged “bubble-like” conditions in both gold and US equities — a rare overlap — cautioning that rapid price gains and retail inflows could leave bullion vulnerable to sharp pullbacks.

MARKETS THIS MORNING-

Asian markets are in the green this morning, tracking gains on Wall Street. Leading gains are South Korea’s Kospi, up 0.6%, and the small-cap Kosdaq, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng was up almost 0.3%, as China’s CSI 300 and Japan’s Nikkei are up marginally. Over on Wall Street, futures are near the flatline following yesterday’s gains.

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THE CLOSING BELL-

The EGX30 fell 0.6% at yesterday’s close on turnover of EGP 6.1 bn (13.3% above the 90-day average). Local investors were the sole net buyers. The index is up 38.2% YTD.

In the green: Misr Cement (+4.6%), Mopco (+3.5%), and Abu Qir Fertilizers (+3.1%).

In the red: Arabian Cement (-3.5%), CIB (-2.4%), and Telecom Egypt (-1.9%).