☕ As consumers tighten their belts on big-ticket items and discretionary spending, the daily ritual of high-quality coffee has proven resilient. Beyond the Instagrammable rosettas and perfectly roasted single-origin beans, the boom is a double-edged sword for Egypt’s coffee entrepreneurs: demand is insatiable, but the cost of doing business has never been higher.

Why demand persists: “Coffee is relatively inelastic in terms of demand because it is one of the things that we do for ourselves,” founder of 30 North Amr El Khazindar explains. Economic theory suggests that during periods of high inflation, indulgent purchases are the first to be cut from household budgets, but consumers will still purchase affordable luxury goods during economic downturns. While the volume of coffee purchases might dip slightly — you might have two daily cups instead of three — the habit itself is non-negotiable, El Khazindar says.

This isn’t just about caffeine addiction, it’s a generational changing of the guard. Coffee consumption per capita in Egypt doubled between 2017 and 2021, reaching 70k tons annually, founder of Brown Nose Omar Abdallah tells us.

But if the demand side of the equation is the dream, the operational and supply sides are the nightmare. For founders, the barrier to entry has transformed from a hurdle to a wall. With the devaluation of the EGP, the cost of imported coffee machines, grinders, and construction materials has skyrocketed. “A store used to cost X,” El Khazindar says, “Now it costs X multiplied by three or four or five.”

Once operational, the pressure shifts to the supply chain. “Higher green coffee [bean] prices, increased logistics and shipping costs, packing inflation, and local FX volatility” are daily realities for those in the coffee business, founder of ReQaf Aly Khattab explains. Global warming is disrupting crop growth in major producing regions like Brazil and Vietnam, El Khazindar adds, driving commodity prices “through the roof.” Khattab adds that irregular rainfall and heatwaves are tightening supply before the beans even reach exporters, forcing Egyptian roasters to pay a premium just to secure inventory.

Beyond hardware and beans, the industry is facing a critical shortage of “software” — the skilled baristas and roasters required to deliver a specialty experience. 30 North, which positions itself as an educational pioneer, has faced the brunt of this talent war. The company invests heavily in certifying staff with foreign trainers paid in hard currency, but this makes them a target for competitors who poach staff rather than invest in their own training programs.

A silver lining is the playing field inadvertently tilted in favor of local coffeemakers off the back of recent consumer boycotts of major Western and international chains. Local players also possess a critical operational edge: agility. “International chains often operate with more rigid systems,” Abdallah explains. Local brands can pivot instantly to adapt to market trends, supply shortages, or consumer needs. This agility extends to logistics. Navigating Egypt’s complex import regulations requires creativity. Ritual Coffee Co. confounder Hussein Bahgat describes relying on regional hubs like Saudi Arabia and the UAE to fill supply gaps when direct imports face delays. “It’s a cycle of highs and lows,” he admits, but having a flexible supply chain is key to staying on track.

A maturing ecosystem: The Egyptian specialty coffee market is currently valued at approximately EGP 300-400 mn, representing a growing 5-7% slice of the broader EGP c.5 bn coffee market. While still niche, its influence is outsized. The founders interviewed, navigating a business environment that would crush less resilient industries, buoyed by a product that has transcended being a commodity, share a cautious optimism. Whether through the uncompromising luxury of 30 North, the agile adaptation of Brown Nose, the convenient democratization of ReQaf, or the community-building at Ritual, these brands are proving that even in the toughest economic (and environmental) climates, there will always be a market for a good cup of coffee.

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