EXCLUSIVE- The perception that Egypt hasn’t made enough progress on the privatization program may be slowing the IMF’s ongoing reviews of our USD 8 bn financing program. The Madbouly government and IMF staff have reached an agreement on key items, but the IMF’s approval on the reviews is still pending, according to two senior government officials closely involved with the process who spoke with EnterpriseAM on condition they not be named.

Officials in Cairo hope to get sign-off in a matter of days, we’re told, but expect the IMF to push the government for a firm timeline on the sale of key assets — and to further empower the private sector.

Is BdC just what the doctor ordered?

The potential breakthrough: A landmark sale of Banque du Caire (BdC). Sources with knowledge of the transaction tell us that Banque du Caire intends to go public via an IPO on the Egyptian Exchange in 2Q 2026. The sale could see the state part with up to 30% of the bank and would be unquestionably the most-anticipated IPO in Egypt since well before the global pandemic.

CI Capital has already taken Banque du Caire on the road for what investors we spoke with called an “early look” roadshow to gauge the appetite of potential anchor investors. Anchors are funds that could have the appetite and AUM base to write a meaningful ticket for an IPO that could be worth up to USD 500 mn. The roadshow has already passed through London, New York, and the UAE, and investor appetite is strong, we’re told.

Our take: The building blocks of a strong IPO are in place

CEO Hussein Abaza — a perennial favorite among emerging markets investors and a multi-time Extel honoree — has sharpened the bank’s competitive edge, which includes unique brand equity and a strong balance sheet. The sale of a significant stake in BdC would be Egypt’s first compelling listing in years and the clearest signal yet to the IMF that the state is taking seriously demands that it step back from direct competition with the private sector. Banque du Caire declined to comment when we reached out yesterday.

Why it matters: The IMF and the private sector will rejoice

The IMF and the government agree the macro gauges are all pointing in the right direction. Cabinet also points to Qatar’s massive USD 29.7 bn Alam El Roum project, saying it shows we’re open for investors. Meanwhile, Egypt has made progress on politically difficult fuel subsidy cuts and expanded its asset monetization program to 50 state-owned companies, up from 35. Suez Canal traffic is showing signs of recovery, with mega-ships beginning to return. The easing of geopolitical tensions should help Egypt attract fresh investment from within the region and abroad, officials here expect.

The IMF sees things a bit differently, three diplomatic sources in Cairo tell us. The Fund, they say, views Alam El Roum as asset monetization, not privatization. While the deal helps shore up our balance sheet, it doesn’t fundamentally get the state out of the economy or create space for private competition — arguably the core structural demand of the IMF program.

Cabinet has been beating the drum on big assets. We reported last week that the Gabal El-Zeit wind-power plant could be offered for sale in February and officials are in the final stages of preparing the master plan for the sale of land at Ras Banas, as we note below. The government is also taking bids for the contract to manage Hurghada International Airport — and Luxor International Airport could be next, we’re told. The airports should attract wide interest from players ranging from strategics to classical infrastructure investors — even bn’aire investor Naguib Sawiris has said he’s interested.

But the IMF expects the government to show progress on “meaningful” privatization, one Western diplomat told us, saying the asset-sale program is “one of the most critical conditions for ensuring sustainable growth and mitigating the impact of potential economic shocks going forward.”

What’s next?

  • On the IMF review, we’re waiting to see when Egypt appears on the executive board’s public calendar — we’re not there as of dispatch time this morning.
  • For Banque du Caire, we’d expect more chatter in the market over the course of winter — 2Q means the bank will be in the market in the traditional May-June IPO window.

AND- A high-level committee will begin work in early January to determine the fate of several companies previously at the top of the asset-sale queue.

Tags: