Gulf investors ❤️ stocks heading into 2026, as private equity suffers from “illiquidity premium”

Investors across the Gulf view public equities as the most attractive asset class on a risk-adjusted basis heading into 2026, favoring the liquidity and historical reliability of public markets over other asset classes, according to Sico’s Investor Return Expectations in the GCC 2026 survey. This is followed by fixed income and real estate.

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Investors are generally targeting annual returns of 9-12% for the asset class — a target that Sico Group’s head of research Nishit Lakhoti broadly aligns with the asset class’ long-term 8-9% total return CAGR in the GCC.

On the other hand, most investors are demanding the highest returns from private equity compared to other asset classes, given persistent illiquidity and exit risk in the sector. Most investors now require a minimum unleveraged return of around 13% to commit capital.

Blame it on the “illiquidity premium.” That’s how Sico Capital CEO Wissam Haddad refers to the spread between the 9-12% target for equities and the 13%+ requirement for PE, which he says comes as softer IPO markets have made exits harder, forcing investors to demand higher compensation for the risk of having capital trapped in longer holding periods or continuation funds.

Cash might not be king? Despite expectations of 5-6% returns on liquidity holdings, Sico Group Deputy Group CEO Ali Marshad said investors may be underestimating the impact of rate cuts, noting that yields paying 5% today could drift closer to 4.25% over the coming year as policy eases, potentially forcing capital back into risk assets to maintain returns.

The same goes for government bond yields: In the fixed income space, investors in Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar are looking for 5% annual returns on 10-year USD government bonds, while those in Oman, Kuwait, and Bahrain are eyeing closer to a 6% yield. Easing inflation and rate cuts will likely pull most GCC sovereign yields below 5%, with Bahrain remaining the key outlier, Marshad says.

The safe wagers for investors in the Gulf? The UAE and Saudi Arabia, as usual — though confidence in Saudi Arabia eased slightly y-o-y amid concerns over liquidity and market performance.

And the new kids on the block: Oman, Kuwait, and Bahrain have all seen optimism improve, with Kuwait in particular seeing investor confidence surge to 41% this year, up from 28%, according to the survey. This was led by reform momentum and an uptick in government spending in both Oman and Kuwait.

MARKETS THIS MORNING-

Most Asian markets are in the green this morning, with Japan’s Nikkei making marginal gains on the back of positive export figures that beat analyst expectations. South Korea’s Kospi gained 0.7%, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng is up 0.1%. China’s CSI 300 was the outlier, remaining slightly lower. Over on Wall Street, futures slipped overnight after a losing session for all three indices yesterday, on the back of higher unemployment figures out yesterday.

THE CLOSING BELL-

The EGX30 fell 0.7%% yesterday on turnover of EGP 6.2 bn (17.0% above the 90-day average). Local investors were net buyers. The index is up 41.2% YTD.

In the green: Eastern Company (+1.8%), Oriental Weavers (+1.6%), and Fawry (+1.2%).

In the red: E-finance (-4.0%), Telecom Egypt (-3.2%), and Emaar (-2.8%).