Non-oil private sector activity jumped back into the green in November, breaking a nine-month stretch in contraction territory, according to S&P Global’s latest Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) report (pdf). Pushing the headline figure up into the green for only the third time since November 2020 was an uptick in new orders and output amid easing cost pressures.

Activity recorded its quickest growth in five years, increasing 1.9 points from the month before to 51.1, sitting comfortably above the 50.0 threshold that separates growth from contraction.

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The uptick in activity was seen across every sector covered by the survey, bar one. While the manufacturing, construction, and services sectors all reported an increase in activity, wholesale and retail stood out as the only sectors to see activity decrease over the month.

This bodes well for a “strong end to 2025,” said S&P Global Senior Economist David Owen. Based on historical correlations, this should translate into GDP growth of 5% y-o-y in the last quarter of the year, he added.

Both output and new orders saw their strongest upturns in five years and output recorded the first increase since January. Meanwhile, new business ended eight months of contraction, enhanced by softening cost pressures.

Exchange rate is a key driver of this rebound: “The improved picture in the non-oil economy was linked to strengthening demand conditions and reduced pressure on business costs as stronger exchange rates helped importers,” Owen wrote.

Cost inflation hit an eight-month low in November, with businesses attributing the dip to a strengthening EGP against the USD, which decreased import costs. Meanwhile, firms noted a continuous rise in wages. Selling prices saw a marginal increase, marking the slowest pace recorded in seven months.

Despite the sharp uptick in activity and demand, employment remained broadly unchanged in November, extending a subdued trend seen in recent months.

Business sentiment: Non-oil private firms remain optimistic about future activity, citing stronger demand as a key factor behind their outlook. “Output expansion and higher demand boosted businesses’ optimism, yet we think firms prefer to remain cautious given their reluctance to increase employment or accelerate their purchases of inputs,” Thndr Securities’ Esraa Ahmed told us.

Cautious optimism is required: “I hope that we can maintain this trend for three consecutive readings so that we can build a projection or outlook [for Egypt’s non-oil sector] based on it,” Economics Professor Medhat Nafei told us.

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