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At this year’s EnterpriseAM Egypt Forum, we sat down with Moustafa Gad, global head of investment banking at EFG Hermes; Amr Helal, CEO of the sell-side at CI Capital; and Bassem Fayek, managing director and partner at BCG Cairo, to talk about what it will take to get Egypt’s capital markets back on a sustainable growth path after years of turbulence. As the panelists agreed, the real question isn’t whether the worst is over — it’s whether this rebound can actually last.
“We’re off life support, maybe not out of the hospital yet, but clearly recovering,” Helal said. Sentiment has shifted from mere survival to cautious optimism. Gad agreed, saying the rebound is underpinned by genuine progress — lower inflation, a more stable EGP, and stronger banking-sector liquidity — all reflections of deeper monetary policy reform.
Sustainability is the new stability: Sustaining momentum will take fiscal discipline, structural reform, and deeper foreign participation, Gad said. “We’ve seen rebounds before,” he added, pointing to similar cycles in 2016 and 2017 that eventually lost steam. “The question investors are asking now is: what’s different this time?” Gad said foreign investors are looking for clarity on what comes next. “Investors need a crisp story — what the economy will look like in five years, which sectors Egypt is betting on, and where the private sector fits in.” Meanwhile, Helal noted that foreign investors are dipping their toes back in, encouraged by macro stability and reform progress. If that continues, “2026 will be a good year.”
A global tailwind to catch: Helal added that the broader backdrop could also work in Egypt’s favor. Volatility, tariff tensions, and shifting supply chains are driving renewed interest in emerging markets — and Egypt’s reform story could make it a standout. “Investors have also learned to live with geopolitical uncertainty,” he said. “It’s become the norm.”
But Fayek was quick to note that we’re way below where we should be in terms of market cap as a percentage of GDP. “Egypt’s market cap is about 10% of GDP,” he said. “Turkey is 40–50%, Morocco 50%, India 130%, and the US over 150%.” Closing that gap, he said, means pushing harder on privatization and reform. “With so much of GDP still in the public sector, prioritizing privatization is essential. It deepens markets and gives the private sector real room to grow.”
Now, as sentiment improves, execution is key: Helal’s recipe for a successful comeback is bringing “the right companies, in the right sectors, at the right price” to market. He pointed to e-Finance’s USD 370 mn IPO in 2021 as a model — a well-priced transaction in a growth sector that pulled in strong foreign demand. But he noted that market depth remains thin: foreign investors account for less than 10% of turnover, while retail investors make up roughly 70–75%. To lure institutions back, he said, Egypt needs IPOs in the USD 150–200 mn range — and for the next few offerings, “it’s worth leaving some money on the table” to rebuild trust and momentum.
Gad sees untapped potential in debt. “We need a proper secondary market for fixed income,” he said, noting that Egypt’s corporate bond and sukuk markets are expanding thanks to regulatory reform and a growing appetite for securitization. What’s missing, he added, is a trading mindset: most issuances are held to maturity — usually by banks — which kills liquidity. Private credit is also still in its infancy, limited by the lack of EGP-hedged instruments and the dominance of USD-based funds. “At least the foundation is there,” he said. “Now it’s about building the ecosystem.”
The real test: scale and follow-through. Helal said the true measure of recovery will be consistent execution — bringing credible, sizable transactions to market with clear growth stories and disciplined pricing. Fayek said a “market-moving privatization” could be the catalyst that signals real momentum, while Gad expects to see a USD 100–200 mn international-style IPO with meaningful foreign participation. Together, they agreed that maintaining a steady pipeline of quality offerings is what will determine whether the rebound lasts.
