Good morning, friends, and happy Monday to you all. We have another packed issue for you this morning, led by government plans to tap the international debt markets a few more times this fiscal year, unemployment inching up after three consecutive quarters of cooling, and confirmation that an IMF mission will soon make its way to Egypt.

PSA-

WEATHER- It’s another cool day in Cairo, with a high of 25°C and a low of 17°C, according to our favorite weather app.

It’s a little cooler in Alexandria, with a high of 25°C and a low of 15°C.

WATCH THIS SPACE-

#1- An IMF mission will touch down in Egypt early December for the combined fifth and sixth reviews of the country’s USD 8 bn extended fund facility program and the first review of the resilience and sustainability facility, the fund’s Director of Communications Julie Kozack said in a press briefing.

The visit follows improvements in key economic indicators that the fund had been looking for progress on. Among these developments is Qatar’s recently announced USD 29.7 bn Alam El Roum project, where a few hundred mn of the proceeds will go toward reducing public debt, a key priority for the IMF.

Egypt is showing efforts adhering to key reform commitments through “establishing a robust institutional framework around divestment of state assets…and working to step up efforts on debt management as the financing outlook improves,” Kozack said.

#2- Eni has allocated some USD 1 bn for the second phase of Meleiha’s development, covering exploration and oil and gas extraction, government sources told EnterpriseAM. The Western Desert field holds an estimated 5 mn barrels of oil equivalent — current output from the field currently stands at around 7k bbl/d. Eni is also working on a USD 180 mn gas-processing facility in the area.

CONTEXT- Eni operates the Meleiha concession and holds a 76% interest in it, with Lukoil, Russia’s second-largest oil producer, holding the remaining 24%.

There’s more: The field will be tied into the Northern Gas Line through a 130-km pipeline to support the new phase of production, according to our sources. The link is designed to raise the amount of gas available for export, boost domestic supply, and reduce reliance on imported volumes.

#3- Egypt aims to send 27 shipments of green ammonia Germany’s way by 2027, Asharq Business reports, citing Suez Canal Economic Zone head Walid Gamal El Din.

REMEMBER- Fertiglobe last year inked an EUR 397 mn contract with H2Global subsidiary HINT.CO to supply green ammonia from its facilities in Egypt to the European Union.

GDP WATCH-

BNP Paribas expects Egypt’s economy to grow 5.2% in FY 2025-2026, before expanding further to 5.5% in the next fiscal year, the French banking giant said in a recent research note seen by EnterpriseAM. This growth will be driven by strong household consumption, which accounts for more than 80% of GDP, as well as a boost in corporate investment on the back of easing monetary policy.

Inflation outlook: BNP Paribas sees inflation averaging 10.7% this fiscal year, down from 20.9% in FY 2024-2025. In the short term, the disinflationary trend, supported by lower oil prices and weaker USD, is anticipated to continue throughout 1Q of 2026. Despite risks of temporary price hikes due to subsidy cuts, the Central Bank of Egypt will likely achieve its 7% (± 2) inflation target in 4Q 2026, the note explains.

Other predictions from BNP Paribas: Foreign currency liquidity is anticipated to stabilize supported by a reduction in the current account deficit and international financing. Meanwhile, the primary surplus is projected to remain above 3% of GDP in 2026 and 2027, and budget deficits are expected to decline to 6% of GDP in FY 2026-2027.

HAPPENING TODAY-

The African Union’s Post-Conflict Reconstruction and Development Awareness Week kicks off today in Cairo and runs until 23 November. The event, held under the theme Rebuilding Lives After Conflict Through Restorative Justice, aims to promote “concrete initiatives to improve the lives and livelihoods of Africans and empower the continent’s resilient citizens to actively contribute to rebuilding their own societies.”

CIRCLE YOUR CALENDAR-

We’ll soon see two new EV models on Egyptian streets: Kasrawy Group is set to launch Chinese EV brand Avatr’s first two models in Egypt — Avatr 11 and Avatr 12 — on 27 November, according to a statement seen by EnterpriseAM.

REMEMBER- Kasrawy became the local exclusive agent for the brand in the summer.

Check out our full calendar on the web for a comprehensive listing of upcoming news events, national holidays and news triggers.

Have you checked out EnterpriseAM MENA <> India? It’s our newest briefing tracking one of the world’s most dynamic trade, investment, and cultural corridors. Every Monday, Wednesday, and Friday, we’ll track the transactions, trends, and market moves connecting these two dynamic regions. The flow of capital, talent, and trade between MENA and the Indian subcontinent is one of the most important economic stories in the world — and we’re telling as only we can.

If you’re investing, trading, or scouting for your next big move in MENA or India, subscribe to EnterpriseAM MENA <> India by tapping here to get the strategic intelligence you need.

** DID YOU KNOW that we cover Saudi Arabia and the UAE?

** Were you forwarded this email? Tap or click here to get your own copy delivered every weekday before 7am Cairo time — without charge.

ICYMI- Missed this week’s Inside Industry? In our weekly vertical exploring all things industry and manufacturing, we looked at how the pharma industry is changing in the midst of the localization push, pricing framework changes, and international firms’ expansions in the local market. Check out the story here.

THE BIG STORY ABROAD-

The notorious Epstein files are dominating what’s otherwise a calm day in the international press. The divide is intensifying over whether to release the files related to the trafficking investigation into disgraced financier Jeffrey Epstein, with calls for full disclosure reportedly gaining more and more ground in the House despite resistance from President Trump and GOP leaders.

The renewed split comes after a House committee released some 20k new pages from the files last week, containing mentions and correspondence with several prominent figures including Trump. The President retaliated by directing the Justice Department to open an investigation into Epstein’s ties with Democrats, a move that some say fanned the flames even further. (Washington Post | Associated Press | Semafor)

MEANWHILE- BTC is reminding everyone just how volatile cryptocurrencies are, erasing more than 30% in YTD gains only a month after reaching an all-time high. The top cryptocurrency fell below the USD 94k mark yesterday, before paring back losses to trade at USD 94.9k. (Bloomberg | Reuters)

ALSO WORTH READING THIS MORNING-

  • Massive protests are hitting Mexico over corruption and organized crime. (Semafor)
  • In defense of junior staff: Why replacing young people with AI could spark a “talent doom cycle.” (CNBC)

*** It’s Blackboard day: We have our weekly look at the business of education in Egypt, from pre-K through the highest reaches of higher ed.

In today’s issue: We look at how Egyptian universities measured up against their international counterparts in the latest global rankings.

Tags: