Good morning, all. We close out the week with another packed issue, diving into what went down during the EU-Egypt Summit, the Madbouly government’s new growth target for the fiscal year, and the new trade policy framework.

PSA-

WEATHER- It’s another sunny day in Cairo, with a high of 34°C and a low of 21°C, according to our favorite weather app.

It’s more or less the same in Alexandria, with a high of 32°C and a low of 20°C.

WATCH THIS SPACE-

We will soon find out when the anticipated IMF mission will land in town for the fifth and sixth reviews of our USD 8 bn program, with the Fund making the announcement “within days,” Prime Minister Moustafa Madbouly said during his weekly presser. “We hope the visit will be within the coming few weeks,” Madbouly said.

REMEMBER- Earlier this week, Director of the IMF’s Middle East and Central Asia Department Jihad Azour said it is yet to be determined when the anticipated IMF mission will land in Egypt for the reviews, but said that discussions between the government and the Fund regarding the reviews are expected to conclude in Q4 2025.

GDP WATCH-

The Madbouly government now sees the economy “nearly” growing at a 5.0% clip this fiscal year, up from previous estimates of 4.5% and up from 4.4% last fiscal year, Planning Minister Rania Al Mashat said yesterday. The upgraded growth forecast is supported by positive developments on the regional front with the Gaza peace agreement signed earlier this month and the government’s commitment to continuing economic and structural reforms.

More optimistic than most: The IMF sees the economy growing 4.5% this fiscal year, the forecast is more optimistic than the World Bank’s 4.3% forecast and the European Bank of Reconstruction and Development’s 4.4% forecast.

The EnterpriseAM Egypt Forum is over. The insights are just getting started.

This year’s forum was packed with actionable intelligence on the future of Egyptian business. To make sure you don’t miss a thing, we’re launching the EnterpriseAM Forum Playback.

Every Thursday at 10am, you’ll receive a special newsletter breaking down one key session — from the future of work to getting capital markets off life support. We’ll also drop a companion podcast in our EnterpriseAM Egypt podcast feed so you can listen on the go.

Want more? We’re soft launching our YouTube channel where we’ve dropped video highlights.

DATA POINT-

Non-oil trade deficit narrows in 9M 2025: Egypt’s non-oil trade deficit narrowed by 18% y-o-y in the first nine months of 2025 to USD 22.8 bn, according to a statement from the Investment Ministry. The drop came on the back of a surge in non-oil exports — which shot up 21% y-o-y to USD 36.6 bn between January and September.

Exports to our top five destinations — UAE, Turkey, KSA, Italy, and the US — grew by 42% y-o-y to hit USD 14.8 bn. The UAE stood out as the largest importer of our goods — with non-oil exports rising by 169% y-o-y to USD 5.9 bn.

The breakdown: Building materials topped our list of exports for the nine-month period, coming in at USD 11.7 bn, climbing some 51% y-o-y last year. This was followed by the chemicals and fertilizers, food industries, and engineering and electronic goods.

FACT CHECK-

The modest uptick in oil product imports has nothing to do with Egypt looking to free up gas for LNG exports — as reported by Bloomberg — but is a reflection of normal seasonal demand fluctuations, a senior government source told EnterpriseAM.

The data: The Madbouly government has contracted for eight shipments of diesel and butane for refinery operations worth a combined USD 1.2 mn — marking a 20k ton increase from the previous few months’ average as the state forecasts a slight jump in demand during the winter months, our source said.

CIRCLE YOUR CALENDAR-

The government will unveil a comprehensive five-year economic “post-IMF” program in December, Prime Minister Moustafa Madbouly said yesterday. The program will build on Egypt’s 2030 Vision and extend targets to 2050. The Planning Ministry is working on the program, taking into consideration the new National Narrative for Economic Development.

Check out our full calendar on the web for a comprehensive listing of upcoming news events, national holidays and news triggers.

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THE BIG STORY ABROAD-

The US has sanctioned Russia’s two biggest oil companies, Roseneft and Lukoil, in a bid to ramp up pressure on the Kremlin to end the war in Ukraine. The move comes a day after a planned summit between the US and Russia to discuss a potential ceasefire was shelved, and is the first time US President Donald Trump imposes Ukraine-related sanctions on Russia since his second term began. (Reuters | Wall Street Journal | Financial Times | Guardian)

The EU also approved a package of sanctions that includes a ban on Russian liquefied natural gas imports from 2027, a year earlier than planned. (Bloomberg | Reuters)

Market reax: Oil jumped USD 2 on the news, with Brent Crude futures rising to USD 64.

ALSO GETTING ATTENTION- Tesla’s net income in 3Q 2025 fell short of analysts’ expectations, despite a boost in sales that drove revenues higher, as CEO Elon Musk cited tariffs and elevated research costs as challenges. Its shares fell 4% on the news. (Reuters | Guardian | WSJ)

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