Good morning, folks and happy Thursday. We wrap up the week with a packed issue led by predictions of when we can expect Suez Canal traffic to pick up — sources tell us we can expect vessels to once again start passing through the canal early next year now that regional tensions are cooling following the Israel-Hamas ceasefire agreement.

ALSO IN TODAY’S ISSUE- Finance Minister Ahmed Kouchouk unveiled a fresh privatization target for the fiscal year and the Madbouly government has extended its subsidized loan program to support industry, agriculture, and renewables players.

WATCH THIS SPACE-

#1- The Madbouly government is looking to raise USD 1.25-1.5 bn by offering up stakes in four state-owned companies by June, Finance Minister Ahmed Kouchouk told CNBC Arabia (watch, runtime; 14:11). At least half of the proceeds will go toward reducing government debt, which will help support the government’s efforts to reduce debt by 10% of GDP over two years.

The ministry is also planning two more international issuances this year. One will be a conventional issuance, while the other could either be a labeled bond — think green, blue, or sustainability bond — or an issuance in a foreign market, like a Panda or a Samurai bond. Total issuances for the year will total USD 4 bn — just like last year — Kouchkouk added.

#2- Could we soon see Chinese banks and financial institutions set up shop in Egypt? The Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) and China’s National Financial Regulatory Administration — which both supervise the banking sector in their countries — agreed to work toward licensing each other’s banks and financial institutions to operate in their respective countries under an MoU, according to a statement (pdf) from the CBE.

The MoU — which also covered a wide range of areas for cooperation — follows a similar one with the People’s Bank of China signed in July, which laid out the intention to boost local currency use when it comes to settling cross-border transactions and exchange information and professional expertise in monetary policy, financial markets, electronic payment systems, and more.

Allowing Chinese banks to operate in Egypt — and making it easier for Chinese companies to trade in CNY — seems like an obvious thing to do. There’s been a substantial uptick in Chinese manufacturers setting up projects in Egypt, major Chinese financial institutions including the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China are involved in financing key projects including the new capital, and there’s the ongoing push in some corners for countries to trade in currencies other than the greenback.

#3- We could wrap up another debt swap with European partners before the end of 2025, Planning Minister Rania Al Mashat told Reuters on the sidelines of the IMF and World Bank annual meetings in Washington. More swaps are in the pipeline for next year, Al Mashat said, describing the mechanism as a tool for “liability management” and a way to ease fiscal pressure.

EQUAL TIME-

The International Finance Corporation “currently … does not have plans to issue an EGP-denominated bond in Egypt,” the World Bank’s private sector-focused arm told us yesterday in response to a story we published in yesterday morning’s edition. Our report cited a senior government official who was speaking with us on the condition we not use their name.

The claim: Our source told us the government had given the IFC the green light to resume its EGP-denominated bond program plan. The program would be designed to provide affordable liquidity to the private sector (have you checked interest rates lately?) while spurring activity in the public debt market.

An IFC spokesperson told us after our report yesterday that the institution is “committed to supporting Egypt’s economic resilience and private sector growth,” which it will do by “working with government partners and financial institutions to strengthen local capital markets, improve access to local currency financing, and mobilize private investment aligned with Egypt’s development goals.”

We’ll continue watching this space: Speaking again after the IFC told us it had no current plans to issue a bond, our source said an issuance is contingent “simply on some procedures” the Madbouly government is currently finalizing.

DATA POINT-

Egypt welcomed 15 mn tourists in the first nine months of 2025, up 21% y-o-y, putting it on track to reach its 17.5-18 mn year-end target, Tourism Minister Sherif Fathy told Asharq Business.

IN THE HOUSE-

The House will meet today to discuss presidential objections to several articles of the draft Criminal Procedures Law. A special committee tasked with reviewing the articles objected to by President Abdel Fattah El Sisi approved, in principle, all the recommendations.

REMEMBER- The president sent the draft Criminal Procedures Law back to the House lastmonth to address objections over several articles, including those tied to governance, clarity, and practicality. We dove into some of the key provisions of the draft law in our previous coverage — check it out here.

The Senate will reconvene on Saturday, ready to kick off the first session of its new legislative term.

HAPPENING TODAY-

#1- It’s day four of the World Bank and IMF annual meetup in Washington. Dominating the narrative on the meetings this morning is the fund’s warning that global sovereign debt will hit 100% of GDP by 2029 — the highest since 1948 — according to its latest Fiscal Monitor report (pdf). But there’s good news for Egypt in the report, with debt to GDP expected to fall from 87.0% in the previous fiscal year to 72.5% by the fiscal year 2029-30.

ALSO FROM THE REPORT- The report sees Egypt’s overall fiscal deficit narrowing from 12.4% of GDP last fiscal year to 3.5% by the fiscal year 2029-30, with the general government net debt-to-GDP ratio on a similar downward trajectory — from 82.3% last fiscal year to 67.9% in the fiscal year ending in June 2030.

Planning Minister Rania Al Mashat argued yesterday that the recently launched National Narrative for Economic Development is a continuation of Egypt’s reform program during her speech at a meeting of G24 ministers, according to a ministry statement. With Egypt’s Extended Fund Facility agreement with the IMF coming to a close in October 2026, many investors and partners are eager to know what route the country will take once it loses the fund as a policy anchor. In the months to come, we expect the cabinet economic team and the central bank to be hammering the line that the reform agenda is here to stay.

Al Mashat also took part in the World Bank Group’s Arab board of governors’ meeting, during which she highlighted the importance of “regional integration to address development challenges” and the World Bank supporting the private sector in member states. Al Mashat will return to the stage today as part of the Leaders’ Speaker Series.

#2- Cairo Water Week will wrap up later today, putting an end to this year’s annual event to discuss innovative solutions for climate resilience and water sustainability at New Cairo’s Triumph Luxury Hotel. The event’s packed schedule included workshops, exhibitions, and sessions around adaptation to climate change, water resource management, nature-based solutions, and sustainable infrastructure. The event also hosted competitions for young inventors and showcased new technologies aimed at advancing the water sector in Egypt and the region.

PSA-

WEATHER- It’s another cool day in Cairo, with a high of 28°C and a low of 19°C, according to our favorite weather app.

It’s more or less the same in Alexandria, with a high of 27°C and a low of 18°C.

CIRCLE YOUR CALENDAR-

Owners of unauthorized buildings will get more time to legalize their properties after the Madbouly cabinet approved extending the deadline for submitting reconciliation requests for certain building violations by an additional six months starting 5 November.

Check out our full calendar on the web for a comprehensive listing of upcoming news events, national holidays and news triggers.

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THE BIG STORY ABROAD-

The tenuous Israel-Hamas peace agreement is still dominating headlines, as Hamas returns more bodies of hostages and says it has now returned all the bodies it is able to reach, and needs more time and specialized equipment to recover others. Meanwhile, Israel has threatened to return to war and “defeat Hamas” if it does not uphold its side of the agreement, which also includes Hamas’’ total disarmament. Some 19 bodies have yet to be returned. (Bloomberg | BBC | Financial Times)

Meanwhile, sources said work has already begun on an international stabilization force that would go to Gaza and stabilize security amid tensions between Hamas and Israeli militants in the strip. The US is in talks with officials from Indonesia, the UAE, Egypt, Qatar and Azerbaijan, on their involvement as part of the force. (Reuters)

ALSO GETTING ATTENTION- US President Donald Trump is threatening to launch military strikes in Venezuela, after authorizing the Central Intelligence Agency to conduct covert strikes there as part of a campaign against drug trafficking. (Wall Street Journal | Guardian | New York Times)

PLUS- Levels of carbon dioxide surged at record levels in 2024, as record additions of renewable energy capacity failed to put the world on track to meet its climate targets for 2030, a report by the International Renewable Energy Agency said. The ongoing burning of fossil fuels, along with a surge in wildfires, are to blame, IRENA said. (Reuters | Guardian)

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