☕ As java lovers worldwide mark international coffee day, the global coffee industry confronts a confluence of challenges that could reshape bns of consumers’ morning rituals. Rising temperatures, volatile weather patterns, US tariffs, and supply chain disruptions are converging to create what experts describe as one of the most turbulent periods in coffee’s modern history.

Coffee prices have jumped nearly 21% over the past 12 months, according to a food security report by the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. CBS reports that the retail price of half a kg of ground roast coffee reached a record USD 8.9 in the US, up from USD 7 just this January. The spike represents far more than a temporary market fluctuation — it’s a symptom of deep structural changes facing coffee production worldwide. And the increases have been universal, affecting coffee from all origins.

Between July 2024 and June 2025, the price of Arabica coffee rose by 91% on futures markets — a new high driven by a mix of climate-related production shocks and policy changes reshaping global trade patterns, reports ODI Global. “At the beginning of this year, the prices were increasing every two weeks,” Aly Khattab, founder of ReQaf, told EnterpriseAM. Now it has eased, but not at the old prices. “It’s still high, but it’s stabilizing,” said Khattab, “So now we can price, now we can plan, now we can forecast.” Yet the most existential threat to coffee comes from climate change.

Climate change has affected plant yields, and the supply hasn’t been able to match demand. “Instead of 10 trees yielding one ton, now it’s 70 trees yielding the same amount,” Khatab said. And it might get even worse. The land suitable for coffee farming could shrink by 50% within the next 25 years, wrote NPR. Arabica, the main variety of coffee sold globally, grows at higher elevations, typically 1.2k meters above sea level or higher. But as the planet heats up, lower-altitude areas where Arabica used to grow are no longer ideal, pushing farms to plant even higher in the mountains with less yield. Coffee leaf rust, a climate-driven fungal disease, represents one of the biggest threats to global coffee production, compounding the challenges farmers already face.

For coffee businesses, the quality implications are severe. “If you want to preserve your high quality products, you need to accept the increase,” Khattab warns. “Otherwise you will be forced to work with lower quality beans, which we’ve unfortunately started witnessing in the market.” Although Egyptian coffee makers “operate in one of the most price-sensitive consumer markets in the world,” Omar Abdallah, co-founder and CEO of Brown Nose tells EnterpriseAM, he believes the company’s approach — to “focus heavily on efficiency and optimizing the supply chain to absorb as much of the shock as possible,” and to be honest with customers about the value of what they’re drinking — cushions the blow. “Egyptians are becoming more educated about specialty coffee,” says Abdallah, “and they’re willing to pay a fair price when they understand the quality and craft behind it. The key is not just to pass costs on, but to earn that willingness by elevating the experience.”

Despite the grim outlook, researchers and industry players are developing innovative solutions. The EU-funded BOLERO initiative is developing new coffee varieties through grafting techniques that join coffee plant tops onto hardier roots from wild coffee or Robusta varieties, creating plants that can withstand drought, pests, and extreme temperatures. This offers a crucial advantage: speed. Traditional plant breeding through cross-pollination can take 20-30 years — far slower than the pace of climate change. Grafting allows farmers to keep their favorite varieties while making plants more resilient in just a few years, rather than decades.

Lesser-used coffee species, like Robusta, are gaining attention for their ability to tolerate hotter temperatures than Arabica. Growing at lower elevations, Robusta has increased from around 25% of global production in the early 1990s to more than 45% today, according to NPR. “Robusta was always perceived as a bad quality bean,” Khattab told us. “It’s very bitter and doesn’t have any fruity notes. But now people in Vietnam and Asia as a whole are focusing on developing it, making it taste better.”

The US’ loss might be our gain. Heavy US tariffs on coffee-producing countries have driven up prices in the States. While the impact of US tariffs may have — more often than not — trickled down onto Egyptian markets, Khattab offers a counterintuitive perspective on how the tariffs might benefit the rest of the global market: “The US is one of the biggest coffee importers of Latin American beans, so US tariffs might make sellers focus on other markets, offering their product at a lower price.”

So why have we been seeing coffee prices crawl upwards in Egypt? It’s not just climate change that carries significant implications on the Egyptian coffee industry — coffee consumption in Om El Donia has doubled in 2017-2021. Global supply chain and national economic changes are compounded by logistical issues, despite Egypt being on the same continent as sought-after origins like Ethiopia and Kenya. “Coffee coming from Africa used to come to the nearest port on the Red Sea and then exported to the Suez Canal,” says Khattab. “Now they need to go all the way to the other side, through the ocean, through the Alexandrian ports. So while our supply hasn’t been affected as much as other countries, the logistical prices have.” This is also the case for coffee coming from Latin America or Asia — Israel’s increased attacks on Gaza have affected Suez Canal prices as well.

But industry players are still optimistic. Egypt held the highest share in the regional coffee market last year, with the MENA market expected to grow at least 7.8% annually through 2032. “When the difference between a commodity cup and a specialty cup narrows, consumers start asking themselves why not choose better quality,” Abdallah told us. “In Egypt, we’re seeing a growing middle segment that values experience, provenance, and lifestyle. Coffee is no longer just caffeine — it’s a statement of taste.” While the market remains cost-sensitive, he believes premiumization is taking hold: “It’s not a foreign concept anymore. It’s our job as roasters and café operators to make that upgrade feel natural and worthwhile.”

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