Good morning, all, and welcome to October. While we have a brisk issue to kick off the month, we suspect the coming weeks will be anything but with an IMF mission landing in Cairo soon for the fifth and sixth reviews of our loan program, the House back in session, and the CBE meeting to review rates within days.

IN TODAY’S ISSUE- The Planning Ministry is out with the latest figures for last fiscal year, detailing growth and the biggest factors contributing to it; we have more on the upcoming fuel price hike; and yet another Turkish project is coming to the Qantara West Industrial Zone, this time a USD 40 mn recycling plant.

PSA-

Attention executives, today is your last chance to apply for the Onsi Sawiris School of Business’ Executive MBA program. The program offers senior executives, entrepreneurs, and professionals the chance to hone their leadership skills, learn how to drive real strategic change in their organizations, and gain a new global perspective on business. The 20-month program tailored for working professionals is set to kick off in mid-October.

WEATHER- It’s another cool day in Cairo, with the capital looking at a high of 32°C and a low of 21°C, according to our favorite weather app.

It’s a little cooler in Alexandria, with a high of 30°C and a low of 22°C.

WATCH THIS SPACE-

#1- Acwa to break ground on its green hydrogen project next year? Saudi renewables giant Acwa Power plans to start working on its green hydrogen project in the Suez Canal Economic Zone by mid-2026, Executive Business Development Director Ayman Fayek told Hapi Journal. The project is still in the study phase, he said.

REMEMBER- It was lastly reported that Acwa expects to complete the first, USD 4 bn portion of its green hydrogen project in the SCZone by 4Q 2028. Under the framework agreement inked in 2023, the company will invest at least USD 4 bn in the first phase of the project, which will have a production capacity of 600k tons of green ammonia annually. The second phase of the project will add another 2 mn tons of green ammonia to the plant’s production capacity.

#2- Telecoms giant Telecom Egypt is mulling merging its tower network with two other mobile operators to lure in international investments, Al Borsa reports, citing unnamed sources. The company reportedly believes that the larger network of towers would be able to bring in much larger bids, after previous bids for its tower portfolio fell short of expectations.

REMEMBER- The state-owned company received several non-binding offers for its tower portfolio back in 2023, with three bidders reportedly competing to buy the majority of Telecom Egypt’s cell towers in a sale and leaseback agreement that could’ve been worth between USD 150-250 mn. Unconfirmed reports last year also claimed that the company was in advanced talks with the National Telecom Regulatory Authority to expand the legal framework to allow unregulated companies to own cell towers.

#3- Chinese and Turkish steel sheet exporters are still not off the hook over dumping allegations, with the Investment Ministry extending its year-long anti-dumping investigation by another six months, according to a decision published in the Official Gazette. The investigation into cold-rolled, galvanized, and coated steel sheets originating in or exported from China and Turkey will now run for a total of 18 months and wrap up by the end of April.

The news follows a raft of incentives for the three types of steel sheets announced last week, courtesy of the Industry Ministry, which said it was seeking to expand Egypt’s industrial base, cut reliance on imports, and boost exports. Also helping local producers are recently introduced safeguard tariffs, with an 11.1% tariff on cold-rolled steel, a 12.6% levy on galvanized steel sheets, and a 4.9% charge on colored steel sheets coming into effect last month.

#4- Carbon bonds for GEM? The environment and tourism ministries are coordinating with the Grand Egyptian Museum’s management to issue carbon bonds once it receives all required international emissions certifications, a government source told EnterpriseAM.

Africa’s first green museum: The museum had secured an Edge Advanced Green BuildingCertification from the IFC, making it the first green museum in Africa and the Middle East. It also aims to become the world’s first museum to achieve zero carbon certification.

NEWS TRIGGERS-

It’s the first work day of October — and there’s a long list of key news triggers to keep your eyes on this month:

  • The House of Representatives will convene today to open the sixth session of its second legislative term, which will kick off with MPs hearing presidential objections to parts of the Criminal Procedures Law.
  • An IMF mission is expected in town today to complete the fifth and sixth reviews of the country’s USD 8 bn Extended Fund Facility Arrangement, with its eye on progress on the privatization front and the phasing out of our fuel subsidies.
  • All eyes are on the central bank’s Monetary Policy Committee this week ahead of its interest rate decision on Thursday, which most analysts polled by EnterpriseAM think will result in a 100-200 bps cut.
  • Non-oil private sector activity to break its six-month streak in the red? S&P Global will release PMI figures measuring non-oil private sector activity for September on 5 October. Last month’s report saw the country’s headline figure contracting to 49.2, taking us further away from the 50.0 threshold that separates growth from contraction, which it has only passed two times since November 2020.
  • We’re also days away from our flagship annual EnterpriseAM Egypt Forum, scheduled to take place on Tuesday, 7 October. With Egypt at a turning point, we’re going to dig into the issues that will set the tone for 2026 and well beyond. And for those not fortunate enough to attend, we will be relaying all the most important takeaways in your morning issue of EnterpriseAM.
  • The business community and policymakers will have their eyes on September’s inflation figures, which we expect will be released on 12 October. Annual headline urban inflation eased again by nearly two percentage points in August to 12.0%, bringing the country’s headline figure to its lowest reading since March 2022 and marking the third consecutive month of easing price growth.
  • Could we see the last fuel price hike this month? Prime Minister Moustafa Madbouly last month confirmed that the government has a clear reform plan for fuel prices and signaled that the next scheduled increase, likely this month, could be the last major hike if global prices remain stable as it cuts fuel subsidies once and for all — excluding diesel and probably LPG.

DATA POINT-

Egypt’s startups have attracted USD 2.2 bn in investments since 2020, according to a Planning Ministry statement.

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THE BIG STORY ABROAD-

One story is on every front page this morning: The US government is on the verge of shutting down after lawmakers failed to reach a consensus on funding talks. US President Donald Trump told reporters the shutdown is “likely,” warning Democrats that his administration could take “irreversible” action — including mass firings of federal workers and the elimination of “programs they like” — if Congress fails to keep the government open. “We can get rid of a lot of things that we didn’t want and they’d be Democrat things.”

This would be the US’ first shutdown since 2019, when a shutdown lasted around five weeks during Trump’s first term. This time around, the stakes are slightly higher: The US Federal Reserve is set to meet at the end of October to discuss and make a decision on interest rates, and with a delay in government data expected — as well as potentially worse jobless data in light of Trump’s warnings — the Fed’s judgment could be further clouded ahead of the crucial decision. (Reuters | Bloomberg | BBC | The Guardian | Financial Times)

ALSO WORTH NOTING- Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway is reportedly closing in on a USD 10 bn deal to buy Occidental Petroleum’s petrochemicals arm OxyChem — a move the Financial Times says would be the conglomerate’s largest acquisition in three years. Occidental is offloading the unit as part of efforts to trim its USD 24 bn debt load. Berkshire, already Occidental’s biggest shareholder with nearly 27% of its stock, is said to be negotiating a cash purchase.

AND- Trump has given Hamas three to four days to respond to his proposed peace plan for Gaza, warning of a “very sad end” if it does not accept the proposal. The 20-point plan, which calls for an immediate ceasefire and Hamas’ disarmament, Israel’s staged withdrawal, and a transitional foreign-led government in Gaza, has received widespread global support, including from the Palestinian Authority. Hamas was not involved in the negotiations that led to the proposal. (Reuters | Guardian)

*** It’s Hardhat day — your weekly briefing of all things infrastructure in Egypt: EnterpriseAM’s industry vertical focuses each Wednesday on infrastructure, covering everything from energy, water, transportation, and urban development, as well as social infrastructure such as health and education.

In today’s issue: We dive into the World Bank and S&P Global’s annual Container Port Performance Index and look at how Egypt’s ports measured up to their global counterparts.

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