OECD’s global growth forecast upped to 3.2% in 2025: Global GDP is set to grow at a faster rate than previously expected, with the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development revising up its forecast to 3.2% from its previous 2.9% prediction, according to its Interim Economic Outlook report (pdf). Its forecast for 2026 remains at 2.9%.

The rationale: Global GDP outperformed expectations during 1H 2025, with the growth and investment in the AI sector coupled with front-loading production in anticipation of levies offsetting incoming tariff-induced headwinds. The prediction still marks a slowdown from 3.3% growth in 2024, as tariffs and a climate of uncertainty weigh on trade and investment.

Markets aren’t clear of tariffs yet, with the real effect of the levies yet to be felt and “significant risks” remaining. The hard data showing signs of tariffs effects is starting to be felt through job figures and prices after firms absorbed the initial brunt through their margins.

Sovereign yield curves have steepened in the US and France, while refinancing risks are mounting in emerging markets with heavy maturities due before 2026. Crypto assets are also surging, which OECD says increases financial stability risks. OECD data shows crypto’s market cap at USD 3.9 tn in September, up nearly 5x since 2023.

Labor markets are softening: Unemployment is edging up in the US, Canada, Germany, and France, as job vacancy ratios are falling. Nominal wage growth has slowed, though it still exceeds inflation-consistent levels in the US, Eurozone, and UK.

Disinflation has lost steam, as food inflation has once again driven up goods prices and services inflation remains sticky, offsetting easing housing costs. Headline G20 inflation is projected to fall to 2.9% in 2026 from 3.4% in 2025, though US inflation will stay above target, as tariffs push import costs into consumer prices.

On the interest rate front, central banks can cut baseline rates further following the US Federal Reserve’s cut earlier this month if inflation expectations remain under control and look set to moderate, the report said. However, the OECD urged vigilance and awareness of risks regarding inflation, adding that fiscal discipline and agility was needed to control debt levels and react to any market shocks.

MARKETS THIS MORNING-

Asian markets are a sea of red this morning, after Wall Street also suffered a losing session yesterday on remarks from Fed Chair Jerome Powell that equity values are stretched. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng and China’s CSI 300 were flat at the open. Over on Wall Street, futures point to a muted open.

EGX30

35,329

+0.3% (YTD: +18.8%)

USD (CBE)

Buy 48.14

Sell 48.28

USD (CIB)

Buy 48.15

Sell 48.25

Interest rates (CBE)

22.00% deposit

23.00% lending

Tadawul

10,876

+0.6% (YTD: -9.6%)

ADX

10,109

-0.3% (YTD: +7.3%)

DFM

5,959

-1.1% (YTD: +15.5%)

S&P 500

6,657

-0.6% (YTD: +13.2%)

FTSE 100

9,223

0.0% (YTD: +12.9%)

Euro Stoxx 50

5,472

+0.6% (YTD: +11.8%)

Brent crude

USD 67.94

+0.5%

Natural gas (Nymex)

USD 2.87

+0.5%

Gold

USD 3,795

-0.5%

BTC

USD 112,097

-0.5% (YTD: +19.8%)

S&P Egypt Sovereign Bond Index

924.70

+0.2% (YTD: +18.9%)

S&P MENA Bond & Sukuk

150.57

+0.1% (YTD: +7.6%)

VIX (Volatility Index)

16.64

+3.4% (YTD: -4.1%)

THE CLOSING BELL-

The EGX30 rose 0.3% at yesterday’s close on turnover of EGP 3.7 bn (15.1% below the 90-day average). Regional investors were the sole net sellers. The index is up 18.8% YTD.

In the green: E-finance (+3.9%), Eastern Company (+3.4%), and Juhayna (+3.4%).

In the red: Misr Cement (-2.5%), Ibnsina Pharma (-2.3%), and Orascom Development (-2.1%).

CORPORATE ACTIONS-

Edita’s general assembly greenlit canceling the snackmakers' London-listed global depositary receipts, according to a disclosure (pdf).

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