Good morning, all. We’re nearing the end of the week and the news cycle is starting to pick up after a few slow days, with the central bank releasing last fiscal year’s remittances figure, sources letting us in on plans to expand Nafeza’s scope to include air freight starting next year, and fresh investment news.

In the fourth issue of our Destination Sahel series, we're bringing you the latest updates on New Alamein City and a look at the best investments in Sahel today. We also investigate the growing issue of beach erosion and its impact on our shores.

Look for Destination Sahel, Issue IV, in your inbox on Wednesday, 3 September.

Missed the first three issues? Tap here to read the full series.

PSA-

WEATHER- It’s another sunny day in Cairo, with a high of 34°C and a low of 24°C, according to our favorite weather app.

It’s a little cooler in Alexandria, with a high of 31°C and a low of 23°C.

WATCH THIS SPACE-

#1- Fresh incentives for large IPOs on the EGX? The Madbouly government is looking into offering fresh incentives for large-scale IPOs on the EGX in a bid to boost activity on the market. Finance Minister Ahmed Kouchouk shared the news during a meeting with Prime Minster Moustafa Madbouly, Financial Regulatory Authority head Mohamed Farid, and newly-appointed EGX head Islam Azzam, according to a cabinet statement.

You heard it here first: EnterpriseAM last week reported that a full tax exemption on IPO proceeds is a main priority in the package of incentives the government is cooking to boost liquidity on the bourse ahead of the upcoming phase of its privatization program. The package is set to be finalized by the end of the month.

What’s Azzam’s plan for his time as EGX head? The bourse will work to deepen the market, introduce new financial products like derivatives, and activate the market maker mechanism, Azzam said, adding that the mechanism would enhance efficiency and competitiveness.

#2- The government plans to launch a financing initiative to revive and restructure idle factories, Industry Minister Kamel El Wazir said earlier this week, without providing much details.

We saw this coming: A government source told us in December that the government is mulling reopening 12k stalled factories, approving immediate reopenings and waiving accumulated penalties for previously operational facilities, as part of an initiative to streamline administrative hurdles in the industry and support the sector.

We’re already seeing steps in that direction, with the government studying a plan to restart the Egyptian Iron and Steel Company’s factories in Helwan more than five years after it was placed into liquidation.

EGP WATCH-

The USD stretches its gains: The greenback continued to extend its recent gains against the EGP thanks to fluctuations deemed normal by bankers. The USD was changing hands at EGP 48.54-48.64 at state banks and at EGP 48.53-48.63 at CIB, by the end of yesterday’s trading.

Why these swings — whether upward or downward — are normal: These fluctuations are mainly driven by the use of FX flows to meet investor demand, as well as the usual volatility of hot money outflows from the country, we were told before. The USD rebound could be linked to the recent loosening of FX restrictions, which resulted in the use of greenback surpluses to meet importers’ requests for production.

Where is the EGP headed? The country’s currency is expected to hold recent gains, trading between EGP 48-50 to the greenback in the near-term, provided portfolio inflows remain strong over the coming months, a recent Fitch Solutions’ research unit BMI showed. Meanwhile, Capital Economics’ James Swanston recently told us that the EGP is forecast to gradually weaken over the rest of this year and into 2026. However, any depreciation is expected to be moderate and reflecting a rebound in the USD and not weakness of our external position and currency.

SUKUK WATCH-

Weekly sukuk roundup: The yield to maturity on our sovereign sukuk rose to 7.73% last Thursday, a notable increase from 7.32% recorded on Wednesday — the lowest level of the week, according to the weekly report (pdf) about the performance of our sovereign sukuk.

Our sukuk at a glance: Egypt plans to tap the international debt markets with a new USD 1 bn sovereign sukuk tranche by September or October, we were told earlier this month. This anticipated issuance — which will stand as the country’s third-ever sovereign issuance — will mark our first international issuance of the current fiscal year, and is part of the country’s USD 5 bn international sovereign sukuk program.

ALSO- Egypt intends to move forward with issuing its first EGP-dominated sukuk in 2Q FY 2025-2026. The value of the issuance is estimated at EGP 3-4 bn and is to be issued in two tranches to measure investors’ appetite.

HAPPENING TOMORROW-

Will the CBE resume its easing cycle tomorrow? The central bank’s Monetary Policy Committee will meet tomorrow to decide whether to cut interest rates. The committee decided to keep rates steady at its last meeting as the market digests the 325 bps of cuts earlier in the year, but the momentary easing pause and lower-than-expected inflation data for July have only emboldened forecasts that the Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) will cut rates at its August meeting.

Pretty much everyone agrees that rates will be cut — the question is how much. Eleven of the economists and banking experts we spoke to for our customary poll expect a rate cut between 100-300 bps this week, while only one analyst sees the CBE holding rates unchanged.

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BN’AIRE WATCH-

Naguib Sawiris has overtaken his younger brother Nassef to become Egypt’s wealthiest person, with a fortune estimated at USD 9.2 bn compared to Nassef’s USD 9.1 bn, according to the Bloomberg Billionaires Index. Naguib rose to the top spot after adding USD 2.3 bn to his wealth since the start of the year, while Nassef saw his wealth rise by USD 413 mn over the same period.

Globally, Naguib now ranks 374th on the Bloomberg index of the world’s 500 richest people, while Nassef comes in 379th place. No other Egyptians are ranked on the list.

CIRCLE YOUR CALENDAR-

#1- The Egyptian-Gulf Trade and Investment Forum is coming to town on 10-11 November, under the theme “A Roadmap to Enhancing the Egyptian-Gulf Economy,” according to a statement from the Foreign Ministry. The event will bring together senior officials and Gulf investors to showcase priority investment sectors and policy reforms aimed at boosting cross-border trade and capital flows.

#2- The East Nile Monorail will officially open in November, according to an Ittihadiya statement. Once fully operational, the monorail will run from Cairo Stadium in Nasr City to the new capital.

Check out our full calendar on the web for a comprehensive listing of upcoming news events, national holidays and news triggers.

THE BIG STORY ABROAD-

The fight over the Federal Reserve is taking over the front pages this morning, along with more tariff news and the ripples of the Gaza war in the world of investment and tech.

Not without a fight: Ousted governor Lisa Cook said she will not accept President Trump’s decision to fire her from the board. Cook is filing a lawsuit against the decision, the first of its kind in the independent institution’s history, with her lawyer arguing the alleged “deceitful and potential criminal conduct,” as Trump put it in his posts, has no basis in facts or law. Trump said yesterday he has a list of replacement candidates ready, and he is looking forward to having “a majority very shortly” on the Fed’s board.

US Tariffs on India to go up: Additional tariffs amounting to 25% on India’s exports to the US are set to takeeffect today, after a showdown between Washington and Delhi over oil purchases from Russia failed to lead to a trade agreement. The US is India’s largest export partner, with over USD 86.5 bn in goods (some 20% of the total) exported to the US in the last fiscal year.

AND- The world’s largest sovereign wealth fund in Norway divested from manufacturingbehemoth Caterpillar and five Israeli banks over ties to Israel’s unlawful activities in the West Bank. The fund had a USD 2.4 bn stake in Caterpillar by the end of 2024.

ALSO WORTH READING- Microsoft has reportedly enlisted the help of the FBI to track internal protesting over its ties with Israel, following a steady trickle of employee activism targeting its executives. (Bloomberg)

*** It’s Hardhat day — your weekly briefing of all things infrastructure in Egypt: EnterpriseAM’s industry vertical focuses each Wednesday on infrastructure, covering everything from energy, water, transportation, and urban development, as well as social infrastructure such as health and education.

In today’s issue: We look at the local warehousing market and its growth potential.

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