Good morning, friends, and happy hump day to you all. Energy and real estate top our news well this morning and the EGP strengthened fractionally the greenback once again yesterday as emerging markets return to fashion.

On the real estate front: The Egyptian Businessmen’s Association, an influential industry group, has pushed back on recent changes of regulations on projects along the North Coast and Cairo-Alexandria Desert Road. The EBA called the changes “worrying” and warned in a letter to the prime minister that they could impact corporate appetite to invest in the sector.

From the Dept of Keeping the A/Cs On: Cabinet is reportedly debating whether to push planned hikes in the price of electricity back as far as next year instead of next month. No decision has been taken yet. The oil ministry, meanwhile, is hoping to see recoverable gas stocks rise 15% this fiscal year.

We also have the rundown on what’s attracting more and more Chinese renewable energy component makers to Egypt and a quick look at Elmenus’ strategic pivot as it brings in a new CEO.

^^ We have all that and more for you below in a packed issue.

BUT FIRST- At least five people are reported dead and in a shooting the building that asset manager Blackstone calls home in New York City.

MORNING MUST-READS-

All of us should be diving a bit deeper in AI and emerging markets, we think.

#1- It looks like AI could be eliminating jobs that would normally be taken by fresh college grads, at least in the United States, the Wall Street Journal reports, arguing that LLMs are perfectly well-suited to do tasks that used to be done by 22 year-olds.

The confounding variable: The story makes an increasingly common argument about what AI could do to the job market — but it’s an open question how much of the elimination of summertime and entry-level jobs owes to LLMs. What are the odds that companies are also cutting jobs in the face of economic uncertainty thanks to the impact of the Trump administration’s economic policies?

Either way: Many CEOs are happy to slash jobs right now, seeing it as a badge of honourat the dawn of the AI age.

#2- Everything old is new again: Emerging markets are back in fashion after a decade of looking as appealing as grandpa’s platform shoes and bellbottoms. The catalyst? Worries about where the American economy is heading and what some claim are the final days of the USD’s global hegemony: “Suddenly, this year, people are paying attention,” one fund manager says. Read Almost every corner of emerging markets is surging as USD sinks on Bloomberg.

PSA-

WEATHER- It’s going to be a little cooler in Cairo after the heat wave of recent days, with a high of 38°C and a low of 26°C, according to our favorite weather app.

It’s going to be muggy in Alexandria, with a high of 33°C and a low of 24°C.

EGP WATCH-

The EGP once again inched up against the greenback yesterday, with the USD changing hands at EGP 48.74-48.84 at the National Bank of Egypt and Banque Misr, and at EGP 48.73-48.83 at CIB. The currency has so far this month gained 1.7% (or EGP 0.82) against the USD.

DIVE DEEPER- We looked at the dynamics behind the EGP’s gains against the USD earlierthis week.

PRIVATIZATION WATCH-

Where’s the follow-up unit for state-owned companies? Prime Minister Moustafa Madbouly met with Planning Minister Rania Al Mashat, Investment Minister Hassan El Khatib, and Finance Minister Ahmed Kouchouk to review the steps taken to set up the new follow-up unit for state-owned companies, according to a cabinet statement. The unit will act as a coordinating body for decisions on the fate of state-owned firms and will be responsible for maintaining a comprehensive database of government-owned assets — particularly those up for privatization.

The unit’s decisions will be binding on all government bodies once it’s formally established, Madbouly said. It will also coordinate with ministries to ensure unified application of state asset policies, and will build on the work of the Sovereign Fund of Egypt and the government’s IPO unit.

REMEMBER- The cabinet had greenlit a draft law to set up the unit back in May 2024. It is expected to support implementation of the state ownership policy by identifying companies to exit, designing divestment strategies, and helping shape legal frameworks to improve state-owned company performance. The law was passed by the House of Representatives in June.

ECONOMIC POLICY-

The Planning Ministry is in the final stages of drafting a national economic development narrative that will act as a “unified reference” for Egypt’s policy agenda through 2030 and beyond.

One strategy to rule them all? The strategy will consolidate existing government playbooks — including the FDI strategy, industrial development and trade policy, and the national employment strategy — under one framework aligned with Vision 2030.

Five pillars: macroeconomic stability, FDI, industrial and trade development, labor market flexibility, and regional planning are the building blocks of the strategy. Prime Minister Moustafa Madbouly reviewed the latest draft with Planning Minister Rania Al Mashat yesterday, according to a cabinet statement.

WATCH THIS SPACE-

#1- El Sisi calls on Trump, world leaders to help end the war in Gaza: President Abdel Fattah El Sisi called on US President Donald Trump and other world leaders to act swiftly to end the war in Gaza and allow the entry of the humanitarian aid in a televised speech yesterday (watch, runtime: 7:30). El Sisi warned that conditions in the territory have become “tragic and intolerable” in recent months. The president stressed that Egypt will never play a negative role toward its brothers in Palestine, adding that Cairo has been working with Qatar and the US since 7 October 2023 to end the war, facilitate the flow of aid, and secure the release of hostages.

This comes days after aid trucks started making their way from Egypt to Gaza shortly after Israel said that it had resumed airdropping aid into Gaza and claimed that it will “stop fighting” for up to 10 hours each day in some areas of Gaza to allow food distribution.

#2- A new Egyptian-Saudi-Iraqi trade corridor just completed a successful trial run: A pilot shipment has successfully traveled along a new multimodal corridor connecting Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and Iraq, according to Saudi state news agency SPA. The shipment began in Cairo, passed through Safaga Port, crossed the Red Sea to Saudi Arabia’s Neom Port, and then continued overland to Erbil, Iraq.

It takes half the time: The trial found that the corridor slashed delivery time for Saudi Arabia-bound shipments coming from Egypt by more than 50% compared to traditional routes.

** DID YOU KNOW that we cover Saudi Arabia and the UAE?

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CIRCLE YOUR CALENDAR-

#1- Preparations are underway for this year’s Egyptians Abroad Conference, which will be held next week. The two-day event kicks off on Sunday at the Triumph Hotel in New Cairo, according to a statement from the Foreign Ministry.

REMEMBER- Expatriates are becoming an increasingly essential part of the country’s economy, with remittances being up for 15 consecutive months since the float of the EGP did away with the parallel market that drove remittances through informal channels. Money sent from abroad is expected to have made up around 8% of the country’s entire GDP in 2024, up from 5% in 2023 and 6.1% in 2022.

#2- The deadline for pre-2020 tax dispute settlement requests is just two weeks away, with companies having until 12 August to apply, the Egyptian Tax Authority said in a reminder. The Finance Ministry is rolling out measures to make it more attractive for businesses to settle disputes dating to before 2020, including by paying a fixed percentage of taxes owed. Businesses will be able to make payments in four installments over a 12-month period without paying late fees or additional interest charges.

Check out our full calendar on the web for a comprehensive listing of upcoming news events, national holidays and news triggers.

THE BIG STORY ABROAD-

The EU is already souring on the trade agreement it reached with the US a day earlier. The EUR dropped the most in over two months against the USD yesterday, falling more than 1% after having risen to a three-year high last week amid hopes for an agreement. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said the agreement would have knock-on effects across the bloc, even possibly extending to the US, while French Prime Minister Francois Bayrou criticized the EU’s “submission.” The agreement secured a 15% tariff on the EU’s exports to the US.

Negotiators are still expected to hammer out the details of the agreement for a non-binding text that could take weeks to complete. This means volatility is still on the table, chief Germany economist at Oxford Economics said in a note. (Bloomberg | Financial Times)

MEANWHILE- Officials from the US and China met yesterday in Stockholm to begin talks to resolve disputes and either extend the 90-day truce on tariffs agreed in May for another three months or reach a permanent agreement ahead of a 12 August deadline. (Reuters)

SPEAKING OF DEADLINES… Trump is giving Russia’s Vladimir Putin a tighter deadline for a ceasefire in Ukraine, telling him he now has 10-12 days to do so or face additional economic pressure from the US. (Wall Street Journal | Reuters | Bloomberg)

ALSO- Trump went against Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s recent statements and said that many were starving in Gaza, and that the US will work on opening food centers “with no fences or boundaries to ease access.” (Reuters | Bloomberg)

*** It’s Going Green day — your weekly briefing of all things green in Egypt: EnterpriseAM’s green economy vertical focuses each Tuesday on the business of renewable energy and sustainable practices in Egypt, everything from solar and wind energy through to water, waste management, sustainable building practices and how you can make your business greener, whatever the sector.

In today’s issue: We look at why Chinese firms are bringing their solar component manufacturing to Egypt.

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