Good morning, everyone. It’s a good news morning after the EGP notched a nine-month high against the greenback — and there’s not a thumb in sight anywhere near the scale. The EGP is holding strong thanks to FX inflows from tourism and remittances, and bankers we spoke with see the trend holding into August.

Remember: We like volatility (particularly when the drivers are clear). It’s a sign that the market is functioning. To that end, consider this gentle reminder an extra public service announcement: It’s not unusual to see the EGP sag a bit against the USD in late August as many Egyptians travel, stores restock for fall, and back-to-school demand kicks in.

We have for you below a deep dive into what’s up with the EGP, along with news that our friends at NATCO are investing some EGP 1.25 bn to localize assembly of China’s Exeed, including the brand’s very handsome VX model. Admaius has taken a stake in the majority shareholder of Minapharm. And the NTRA promises that while it’s not scrapping that once-every-three years exemption from customs on personal mobile phone imports, it is definitely cracking down on grey-market imports and fraud.

We have two MORNING MUST READS to kick-off this muggy day:

#1- Repeat after us: “The economy” is a lagging indicator — and the economy ≠ the stock market. The US economy is (so far) proving more resilient to stress in the wake of Trump’s tariff nonsense than many had predicted, but it’s hard not to wonder if it isn’t Wile E. Coyote. You know: The scene where he’s just about to turn to the camera and waive “bye-bye” before plunging to earth? Anyway, the Wall Street Journal has five charts for you this morning warning that “stretched [stock] valuations and a surge in speculative trades are raising red flags, even as growth persists.”

#2- Pumping iron is the key to aging well, folks. Peter Attia has been telling you this foryears. The New York Times is now hopping on the bandwagon, profiling Greysteel, a gym in the United States that sees seniors in their 70s, 80s, and 90s deadlifting their bodyweight and more.

PSA-

WEATHER- It’s another extremely warm day in Cairo as we approach the hottest month of the year. We’re in for a high of 40°C (that, once again, will feel several degrees hotter) and a low of 28°C, according to our favorite weather app.

You can expect slightly cooler (but more humid) weather in Alexandria, with a high of 35°C and a low of 25°C.

And we know what hot days mean:

WATCH THIS SPACE-

#1- Electricity consumption hit a new peak at 39 GW yesterday after a few days of extreme heat pushed energy demand to a series of record highs, according to National Energy Control Center data seen by EnterpriseAM. Saturday briefly held the title for record electricity consumption at 38.8 GW — the highest load ever recorded in the history of Egypt’s unified power grid — before being dethroned. Last year’s peak came in at 38 GW.

This explains the electricity cuts some folks suffered through over the weekend, with the lights (and A/C) going out for long hours Saturday night in some districts. The blackouts were the result of transformer stations malfunctioning, a government source in the electricity sector told us, explaining that it was a one-time thing and not a sign that rolling blackouts are coming back.

Bracing for more hot days: The Electricity Ministry says it’s working to ensure the A/C stays on during periods of high demand. The ministry is coordinating with EGAS to increase gas supplies and carrying out regular maintenance of power stations to make sure they can handle the increased demand, the source added.

DATA POINT- Power plants are fed 3.3 bn cubic feet of natural gas a day — taking up 65% of the country’s gas supplies, our source said.

#2- Aid trucks are making their way from Egypt to Gaza: Aid trucks loaded with food and basic supplies began moving from Egypt into Gaza yesterday, Al Qahera News reports. This comes a day after Israel said that it had resumed airdropping aid into Gaza.

The news comes as Israel claims it will “stop fighting” for up to 10 hours each day in some areas of Gaza to allow food distribution. Jordan and the UAE, meanwhile, have begun airdropping food aid on Gaza, where starvation is a fact of daily life and famine is now the watchword. Some in the west, meanwhile, continue to debate what constitutes famine.

#3- Boursa Kuwait-listed Manazel Holding is raising its stake in local subsidiary ManazelReal Estate Developments to 99.99% from 55%, according to a disclosure (pdf). The EGP 294 mn transaction is being executed via an asset swap, with Manazel handing over commercial space in New Cairo as payment.

The move comes as a vote of confidence in the local real estate market, even as the sector contends with fresh regulatory pressure, including a new land tax on plots owned by developers in areas like the Cairo-Alexandria Desert Road and North Coast, and a three-month grace period for North Coast developers to obtain construction licenses.

DATA POINT-

Tourism revenues are up: Tourism revenues rose 22% y-o-y to USD 8 bn in 1H 2025, Tourism Minister Sherif Fathy told Asharq Business.

Speaking of tourism: The New Urban Communities Authority has agreed not to collect fees from homeowners looking to convert their properties into short-term vacation rentals, Fathy said, adding that eight companies have received approvals to convert 56 units — including apartments and villas — into holiday homes, writes Al Mal.

Mark your calendar for the 2025 EnterpriseAM Egypt Forum, our flagship forum and part of our must-attend series of invitation-only, C-suite-level gatherings. Tap to register your interest to attend. Want to partner with us? Reach out to Moustafa Taalab at mtaalab@enterpriseadvisory.com to explore sponsorship opportunities.

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ICYMI- Missed this week’s Inside Industry? In our weekly vertical exploring all things industry and manufacturing, we looked at what the government is doing to support factories as the EU carbon mechanism comes into play. Check out the story here.

THE BIG STORY ABROAD-

The US and the EU have narrowly averted a trade war after reaching an agreement that will see the bloc face a 15% tariff on exports to the US. The agreement came following months of talks and just a few days before a Friday deadline will see higher tariffs take effect.

There are still points of contention: European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said the tariffs covered all exports, including automobiles, drugs, and chips, hitting back at Trump’s claim that the agreement did not cover pharma and metals. The US is working on a probe into pharma that could see it implement a global tariff on drugs later. Conventional wisdom is that we’ll see a low tariff imposed this year — and a much higher one next year after firms have regrouped. (Bloomberg | Financial Times | Reuters | Wall Street Journal | New York Times)

ALSO- It’s going to be a big week on Wall Street and in Washington, DC, with CNBC’s Jim Cramer saying it could set the tone for markets through the rest of the summer. Here’s what to watch out for:

  • The Federal Reserve’s open markets committee meets tomorrow and the day after. It’s widely expected to stay the course and hold rates steady despite continued pressure from Trump. Its concern: tariff-driven inflation;
  • It’s Big Tech week on the earnings front, with Apple, Amazon, Meta, and Microsoft all expected to begin reporting 2Q results from Wednesday;
  • Friday will see the US publish its latest jobs report and kick into gear higher tariffs for all trading partners with which it has not reached a trade agreement.

*** It’s Blackboard day: We have our weekly look at the business of education in Egypt, from pre-K through the highest reaches of higher ed.

In today’s issue: We look at private and international university tuition fees for the upcoming academic year.

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