Doves circling, but no consensus just yet: Most Federal Reserve officials see interest rate cuts coming this year, but remain divided on when and by how much, minutes (pdf) from the Fed’s 17-18 June meeting show. While “most participants assessed that some reduction […] would likely be appropriate,” others cautioned against moving too soon, citing a still-resilient economy and inflation that remains above target.

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The keyword is tariffs: The divide is mostly due to a lack of certainty around the impact of tariffs on inflation. “While a few participants noted that tariffs would lead to a one-time increase in prices and would not affect longer-term inflation expectations, most participants noted the risk that tariffs could have more persistent effects on inflation,” the minutes said. Some also said inflationary effects could be “more limited” if firms adapt or trade agreements are struck.

REMEMBER- The majority of Fed policymakers expect two or more rate cuts this year, after they held benchmark rates steady in June at 4.25-4.50% for the fourth consecutive meeting.

Views are diverging on the next meeting: Some policymakers floated a cut “as soon as the next meeting” at the end of the month, while others saw no need for reductions at all this year. On the question of how much, several said the current rate “may not be far” from neutral, implying limited room for easing. Others pointed to softening inflation and labor market cooling, warning of “difficult tradeoffs” if inflation proves sticky while employment weakens.

The data sends mixed signals…: June job growth surprised to the upside with 147k new payrolls and a drop in unemployment to 4.1%, CNBC reports. Still, consumers are pulling back, with May retail sales falling 0.9% and personal spending dipping 0.1%.

…and Trump applies pressure: President Donald Trump continues to publicly lash out at Fed Chair Jerome Powell, demanding deep cuts and even calling for his resignation. Powell has pushed back, stressing the Fed will base its decisions on data, not politics.

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THE CLOSING BELL-

The EGX30 rose 0.5% at Thursday’s close on turnover of EGP 4.1 bn (17.4% below the 90-day average). International investors were the sole net sellers. The index is up 12.1% YTD.

In the green: Madinet Masr (+3.7%), Edita (+2.6%), and GB Corp (+2.4%).

In the red: Palm Hills Development (-3.0%), ADIB (-2.1%), and Eipico (-1.5%).

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