US markets closed out last week on fresh record highs, driven by easing geopolitical tensions, hopes for trade deals, and expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut rates. Yet, behind the rally, investors remain wary of President Donald Trump’s unpredictable policymaking style.

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Investors are watching for Congress to pass a sweeping tax-cut and spending bill by early July, while markets remain sensitive to upcoming economic data and the Fed’s next move. The June jobs report, due Thursday, is expected to show a slowdown in hiring to 110k from May’s 139k, according to a Reuters poll. Markets are penciling in a 76% chance of a September rate cut and a 19% probability of a July move, according to CME Group’s FedWatch.

Major US indices closed at record highs on Friday: Both the S&P 500 and the tech-heavy Nasdaq closed up 0.52% to reach fresh highs. Chipmaker Micron’s positive outlook revived confidence in AI-linked chip stocks, pushing Nvidia up 1.8% and bringing it closer to a USD 4 tn market cap.

Despite the gains, institutional investors remain wary of policy risks. “Nobody wants to end a week with a risk-on tilt to their portfolios,” B. Riley Wealth’s Art Hogan told Reuters, adding that investors are “aware that just as the market feels more certain and confident, a single wildcard policy announcement could change everything.” Bank of America’s strategist Joseph Quinlan told the newswire that institutional investors are cautious this time around, pointing out that the high gains markets posted after Trump’s re-election were wiped out by his tariff policies later on. “There will still be spikes of volatility around policy unknowns,” he said. Barclays’ Stefano Pascle echoed the sentiment, citing “a lot of hesitation in chasing the market rally.”

Looking ahead: Investors will keep a close eye on the June jobs report this week, alongside congressional progress on the fiscal bill and tariff deadlines. July has historically been a strong month for stocks, with the S&P 500 rising an average 2.9% in the past 15 years.

EGX30

33,003

+1.2% (YTD: +11.0%)

USD (CBE)

Buy 49.84

Sell 49.98

USD (CIB)

Buy 49.85

Sell 49.95

Interest rates (CBE)

24.00% deposit

25.00% lending

Tadawul

11,068

+0.9% (YTD: -0.8%)

ADX

9,886

+0.8% (YTD: +5.0%)

DFM

5,684

+1.3% (YTD: +10.2%)

S&P 500

6,173

+0.5% (YTD: +5.0%)

FTSE 100

8,799

+0.7% (YTD: +7.7%)

Euro Stoxx 50

5,326

+1.6% (YTD: +8.8%)

Brent crude

USD 67.77

+0.1%

Natural gas (Nymex)

USD 3.74

+6.0%

Gold

USD 3,288

-1.8%

BTC

USD 107,376

+0.3% (YTD: +14.8%)

S&P Egypt Sovereign Bond Index

878.4

+0.1% (YTD: +13.0%)

S&P MENA Bond & Sukuk

145.3

-0.1% (YTD: +3.8%)

VIX (Volatility Index)

16.32

-1.6% (YTD: -6.0%)

THE CLOSING BELL-

The EGX30 rose 1.2% at Wednesday’s close on turnover of EGP 5.4 bn (13.0% above the 90-day average). Regional investors were the sole net sellers. The index is up 11.0% YTD.

In the green: Palm Hills Developments (+4.5%), Qalaa Holdings (+4.1%), and Eipico (+3.9%).

In the red: EFG Holding (-2.5%), Egypt Aluminum (-1.9%), and AMOC (-0.1%).

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