Good afternoon, everyone. We’re racing towards the final stretch of the week and into the long weekend. The latest developments between Iran and Israel and their impact on markets (and the EGP) continue to drive the news cycle.

THE BIG STORY TODAY-

#1- ASCOM eyes Raya’s stake in Ostool: Qalaa’s mining arm ASCOM will submit a purchase offer for Raya Holding’s entire 90% stake — represented in 77.9 mn shares — in freight subsidiary Ostool in a EGP 641 mn transaction after its board greenlit the transaction, according to a disclosure (pdf) to the EGX. The potential offer values Ostool’s shares at EGP 8.22 each.

REMEMBER- Raya Holding upped its stake in Ostool to 90% in 2023, after purchasing an additional 27.7% stake from Egyptian Gulf Holding Financial Investments, EGBank’s investment arm. Prior to that, Raya was looking to sell its 62.3% stake in Ostool, but the sale didn’t go through because the buyer didn’t transfer the funds within the required time.

#2- The EGP rebounded against the USD following the announcement of a ceasefire between Israel and Iran, with the currency gaining around EGP 0.70-0.73 during trading hours to trade below the EGP 50 mark for the first time since the escalations between the two countries began 12 days ago. The USD ended the day at EGP 50-50.10.

The rebound came on the back of strong USD-dominated inflows — which were driven by the renewed appetite of foreign investors in our debt instruments — in tandem with a slowdown in investor outflows, a source in the banking sector told EnterpriseAM. This strong appetite is expected to continue, after interbank USD transactions reached USD 3 bn since the conflict started, the source added.

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THE BIG STORY ABROAD-

Is the ceasefire already broken? Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz has ordered the military to strike targets in Tehran in response to what he called a “blatant violation” of the truce by Iran. Israel claims that Iran had fired missiles in the hours after the ceasefire took effect. Iran, however, denied the accusations and said that no such attacks have taken place, warning that “any further aggression will be met with a decisive, firm, and timely response.” US President Donald Trump took to his Truth Social platform to warn Israel against dropping bombs on Iran as it would be a “major violation” of the ceasefire. (Reuters | BBC | New York Times | CNBC | Associated Press)

☀️ TOMORROW’S WEATHER- Cairo’s sunny streak continues tomorrow, with the mercury set to peak at 36°C throughout the day before dropping to 22°C at night. The North Coast will be having a cooler day, with temperatures peaking at 26°C before slightly dropping to 24°C at night.

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