Good morning, y’all. In today’s packed issue, we’ve got the lowdown on the government’s new export support program set to come into effect next month, our PMI reading inching back to the green, news that VW is still serious about setting up shop here, and more.

BUT FIRST- Happy Eid, everyone. Today is the last day of the workweek before we all take a break for Eid Al Adha. Private and public sector workers, as well as banks and the EGX, will be off starting tomorrow and until Monday in observance of Eid Al Adha.

And that includes us too at EnterpriseAM Egypt HQ, who will also be taking a break from your inboxes for the Eid break, but we’ll be back bright and early on Tuesday.

PSA-

WEATHER- The sun is out in force in Cairo today, with a high of 33°C and a low of 21°C, according to our favorite weather app.

Our friends over in Alexandria are also in store for a sunny day, with a high of 27°C and a low of 19°C.

While those that have already ventured up to the North Coast will be treated with sunny skies, a high of 26°C, and a low of 18°C.

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INFLATION WATCH-

Analysts we spoke to are in agreement that annual inflation will accelerate in May — the question is by how much. Ahly Pharos’ Hany Genena sees headline annual inflation rising just over 1.0 percentage point from April’s 13.9% y-o-y reading to sit at around 15.25% y-o-y, while HC Securities’ Heba Mounir expects inflation to accelerate only 0.3 percentage points to 14.2% y-o-y.

But on a monthly basis, the two see inflation falling, with Genana expecting a 0.8 percentage drop to 1.3%, while Mounir expects a more modest 0.4 percentage point drop.

So why is annual inflation accelerating, while monthly inflation falls? Genena explained that the devaluation in May of last year led to a fall in prices as we got rid of the parallel market that had overvalued the USD and undervalued the EGP, which is bound to be heavily reflected as base effect on this May’s reading. Mounir explained that the more rosy picture on a monthly basis is reflective of an expected 2.0% m-o-m drop in food and beverage prices and a slowdown from April’s 9.9% m-o-m transport price inflation to a more manageable 1.7% m-o-m.

We will all hear the real figures when we get back to our desks after the Eid break, with state statistics agency Capmas expected to publish May’s inflation data next Tuesday.

HAPPENING TODAY-

It’s the third and final day of Fi Africa andProPak MENA the Egypt International Exhibition Center. The three-dayannual conference (pdf) — which focuses on the food, beverage, and packaging industries — will bring together over 400 exhibitors from Egypt, the Middle East, Asia, and Europe, as well as over 16k attendees. It will feature talks and workshops for F&B and consumer goods manufacturers and showcase new technologies in a bid to promote potential investments and encourage sustainability and food waste reduction. You can register for the event through the link available on the Fi Africa and ProPak MENA websites.

THE BIG STORY ABROAD-

No one story is dominating the world’s digital front pages this morning, but one personality is — and I think you know who. On day 135 of Trump’s second term, his administration is once again turning up the heat on trade partners, sending out letters this week to trade partners,demanding that they submit their best tariff offers by today — or risk the return of sweeping duties next month with the end of the 90-day trade war pause. So far, only a limited agreement with the UK has been reached, while talks with the EU, India, Vietnam, and other nations drag on. (Bloomberg | Reuters)

Also headlining many of the world’s press outlets is Elon Musk’s chaotic split with this former boss at the White House. Despite Musk’s claims to be standing back from politics, it seems he can’t quite resist the limelight, taking to X to issue a fiery tirade torching Trump’s signature tax-and-spend bill as a “disgusting abomination” and a “pork-filled” disaster. “It will massively increase the already gigantic budget deficit to USD 2.5 tn,” Trump’s former bn’aire backer said, adding that it will lead to “crushingly unsustainable debt.” (Associated Press | Guardian | Financial Times)

*** It’s Hardhat day — your weekly briefing of all things infrastructure in Egypt: Enterprise’s industry vertical focuses each Wednesday on infrastructure, covering everything from energy, water, transportation, and urban development, as well as social infrastructure such as health and education.

In today’s issue: We look at how Egypt’s internet speed compares to its neighbors’ and what it is being done to ensure speedy internet.

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