Non-oil private sector activity continued to decline in April, which non-oil firms attributed to declining demand amid weaker consumer spending, according to S&P Global’s latest Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) report (pdf). Egypt’s headline figure fell 0.7 percentage points to 48.5 in April, down from 49.2 in March, marking Egypt’s lowest PMI reading in 2025 so far.

REMEMBER- The all-important 50.0 mark is the threshold separating contraction from growth. Anything above 50 denotes expansion, while anything below indicates contraction.

New orders and overall output were both down: The new orders sub-index fell to 47.24, down from 49.0 in March, with businesses reporting a drop in customer spending, which led to lower intakes of new business, Reuters reports. This, in turn, led to a reduction in output, with the output sub-index dipping to 47.4, down from 48.6 a month prior. Rates of contraction for both new orders and output were at their lowest level in four months.

Input purchases were also down as a result, with lower levels of activity spurring the most marked decrease in purchasing activity since last October. Meanwhile, employment saw a decline for the third consecutive month, with firms looking to limit their hiring activity and their headcount amid subdued activity.

The effect of rising fuel prices is starting to show: Input prices rose at their fastest pace in four months in April, with panelists indicating that this was down to an increase in fuel prices, as well as higher material and staff costs. However, this did not reflect on output prices, which remained unchanged during the month. “Although input costs rose at a much sharper pace over the month, this was mainly attributed to the roughly 15% uplift in fuel prices, rather than underlying inflationary pressures,” S&P Global Senior Economist David Owen said.

REMEMBER- The Oil Ministry’s fuel pricing committee raised vehicle fuel prices by 11.8-14.8% last month, in what was the government’s first fuel price hike since October 2024. Analysts we spoke to agreed that the hike will add to inflationary pressures — and even push up the headline figure.

It’s not all doom and gloom for businesses: “Non-oil firms were more confident about future activity in April, with optimism ticking up to a three-month high, although the level of confidence remained subdued in comparison to the long-run trend. Firms with a positive outlook generally hoped that market conditions at home and abroad would strengthen,” the report reads.

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